Well, prediction market traders are increasingly piling into the song contest, and their wagers might offer some insight.
On Polymarket, where more than $175 million in Eurovision bets are at stake, Finland is the clear favorite with a 44.5 percent chance of winning, according to the site’s users.
Finland also leads on Kalshi, another popular prediction market. And Europe’s traditional bookmakers likewise have Finland’s Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen as the favorite to win.
Their track, “Liekinheitin” (“Flamethrower”), has all the classic elements of a Eurovision winner. The duet between Lampenius, a violinist, and the pop star Parkkonen, is catchy and dramatic. During the performance, Lampenius sprints along the stage in high heels while carrying her violin — a 1781 Gagliano, worth an estimated $660,000.
Violinists and fiddlers have won Eurovision before, notably Alexander Rybak, who won the 2009 contest for Norway with “Fairytale.” And ever since Finnish TV viewers chose “Liekinheitin” to go to Eurovision, it’s topped fan polls as this year’s best Eurovision track.
That doesn’t mean victory is in the bag. Heading into last year’s final, Kaj from Sweden was the favorite with “Bara Bada Bastu,” a comedy song about saunas. It finished in fourth place.
Vladislav Bering, 22, a Polymarket trader who lives in Bulgaria and said he had placed about $1,500 on Finland to win, said in an interview that he had gone on “instinct” in deciding to bet on the Finns. He said that the act’s staging was brilliant and that such spectacle was needed to win.
For the same reason, he also put about $1,000 on Australia’s Delta Goodrem this week after seeing her semifinal performance. “It was such a good show,” he said of a performance that at one point sees the singer stand atop a gold piano.
According to prediction markets, only Goodrem, a former star of the wildly popular Australian soap opera “Neighours,” Greece’s madcap Akylas and Bulgaria’s Dara have a chance of challenging the Finns.
But there are many other acts looking to take tonight’s title, too, with other talked-about contenders including Denmark and Romania.
