Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you’re torn between two similar players and simply don’t know which to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The matchup rankings provide a schedule independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced over the past five weeks. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
“Adj. FPA,” or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below players’ weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team’s personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want the most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (at Detroit Lions). Love gets a dream matchup for the third consecutive week, and in each of the past two he exceeded 20 fantasy points. This week, he faces the most favorable matchup for quarterbacks. The Lions have surrendered at least 21 fantasy points to every one of the five starters they have faced. That includes three in a row who were started in fewer than 70% of ESPN leagues: Geno Smith, Week 3; Bryce Young, Week 4; and Jacoby Brissett, Week 5. Don’t make Love the fourth straight, especially not in a game that began the week with a whopping 53.5 over/under.
Others to like:
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (versus New York Giants)
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (at Las Vegas Raiders)
Matchup to avoid: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (at Seattle Seahawks). Mahomes is off to a sensational start, placing seventh in passer rating (103.1) and ninth in Total QBR (68.2), but it’s not fully reflected in his fantasy production. Mahomes’ 17.0 fantasy points per game rank 13th among quarterbacks, and he has had a top 10 score in just two of his five contests. He’ll next face a Seahawks defense that has held four of six opposing starters under 10 fantasy points.
Running backs
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Matchups highlight: Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. New Orleans Saints, Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET in Paris). Rico Dowdle‘s return last week didn’t cut into Warren’s workload as much as feared. In that game, Warren played 74% of the offensive snaps, had a 64% rushing share and 41% route participation. Dowdle’s numbers in those same categories were 28%, 32% and 13%. Even if these two share the rushing chores in a closer to 50/50 arrangement going forward, this matchup props Warren into the fantasy RB1 tier. The Saints have allowed a league-high six different running backs to score 15-plus fantasy points against them and an additional two score 10-plus.
Others to like:
Kyren Williams, Rams (at Raiders)
Breece Hall/Braelon Allen, New York Jets (versus Miami Dolphins)
Matchup to avoid: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (at Minnesota Vikings). Taylor has exceeded 20 fantasy points in four of his six games, but due to the conservative nature of the Colts offense — their average of 4.7 yards per play as a team ranks ninth worst — he has been susceptible to matchups against tougher defenses. The Texans, for example, limited him to 9.2 fantasy points in Week 3, while the Steelers, who stacked the box frequently in Week 5, held him to 11.2. The Vikings represent the toughest all-around defense to this point, dropping Taylor’s valuation to a borderline top-10 option rather than the must-start he typically is.
Wide receivers
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Matchups highlight: Denzel Boston, Cleveland Browns (at Tennessee Titans). Boston is fourth in the league in average depth of target (16.2 yards) and eighth in yards per target (10.1), signaling the kind of big-play ability that might win you your game in the right matchup. Boston has scored 40% of his fantasy points on deep throws, and he’ll next face a soft Titans secondary that has seen 10 different wide receivers score 10-plus fantasy points against them. Included in that group are a trio of wideouts who also rank among the top 30 in aDOT: Xavier Hutchinson (Week 5, 10.5 points), DeVonta Smith (Week 2, 27.7) and Dontayvion Wicks (Week 2, 12.4).
Others to like:
Christian Watson/Matthew Golden, Packers (at Lions)
Germie Bernard, Steelers (at Saints)
Dontayvion Wicks, Philadelphia Eagles (versus Dallas Cowboys)
Matchup to avoid: Tre Tucker, Raiders (versus Rams). Tucker is coming off a 26.7-fantasy-point outburst against the Buffalo Bills, which vaulted him into the top 25 wide receivers in points per game for the season (13.1). Unfortunately, Tucker will probably find it much more difficult to find open space against the Rams, a polar opposite pass defense to the Bills. Fellow WR1s Khalil Shakir (11.0 points, Week 5) and Michael Wilson (7.2, Week 6) had disappointing scores against the Rams the past two weeks, and, for the season, only the Chiefs have held opposing WR1s to fewer fantasy points per game than the Rams (1.33).
Tight ends
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Matchups highlight: Tyler Higbee/Colby Parkinson, Rams (at Raiders). This is an effective coin flip, as both Rams tight ends could see a good share of targets while Davante Adams nurses a ruptured hamstring. Parkinson is the higher-ceiling option of the two; Higbee’s history reflects an elevated floor. If you’re in a tough spot at the position, consider adding either of these two for their favorable matchup against the Raiders. Five different tight ends have scored at least 10 fantasy points in a game against this defense, including one in each of the past two weeks.
Matchup to avoid: Tyler Warren, Colts (at Vikings). Warren missed Week 6 with a groin injury, and while there’s a good chance he’ll return to action this week, lingering injury questions, coupled with the matchup, make him a borderline fantasy starter at best. The Vikings have yet to surrender a 10-point fantasy game to a tight end this season, and keep in mind that they’ve faced some good ones: Tucker Kraft (Week 1, 9.5 fantasy points), Colston Loveland (Week 2, 1.3) and Juwan Johnson (Week 5, 5.6).
