Connelly: Week 5 brought clarity, confusion to conference races

Bill ConnellyOct 4, 2026, 04:50 PM ET
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As a rule, October is pretty good at telling us everything we got wrong about college football in September. It didn’t waste any time this season.

Florida and its unstoppable offense got stopped repeatedly in a blowout loss to Missouri. September Heisman winner Kamario Taylor and Mississippi State became the latest team to get overwhelmed by Keelon Russell and Alabama. Michigan’s seemingly improving offense stopped improving. UMass’ perfect September puttered out the moment the calendar flipped. So did Colorado State defensive coordinator Tyson Summers’ job status.

It was a reality check weekend of sorts, and it’s left us with more clarity in some areas and far less in others. Let’s take stock!

SEC race: cloudier

In a way, I guess you could say that Week 5 clarified the SEC title race a bit by simply eliminating (to a degree) a couple of unbeaten upstarts. No. 8 Florida (to Missouri) and No. 16 Mississippi State (to Alabama) losing by a combined 61 points not only handed both teams losses but dumped their SP+ ratings enough to kill their conference title odds. Per SP+, they were at 7.1% and 3.6%, respectively, to win the league a week ago; now they’re at 0.9% and 0.5%. They’re not out, but they’re mostly out.

While Georgia is still a solid favorite — and did nothing to really dissuade that notion with a 24-point cruise against Vanderbilt — I’m saying this race is murkier than before because of Alabama. Kalen DeBoer’s Crimson Tide might have the highest ceiling of anyone in the country, and for the second straight week they wasted no time finding fifth gear. The Tide led Mississippi State in Starkville by a 14-0 margin just 6:30 into the game, thanks to a Keelon Russell-to-Ryan Coleman-Williams touchdown pass and a Dijon Lee Jr. pick-six.

MSU eventually got its offense going a bit despite an injury to primary back Fluff Bothwell, but there was never much hope of stopping the Bama offense for long. The Tide hit a lull for part of the second quarter but scored on their last five full drives of the game; Russell finished with more passing yards than Kamario Taylor (285 to 258) in far fewer dropbacks (27 to 39), and Bama finished with 179 rushing yards to MSU’s 18.

The Tide have scored at least 45 points in every game despite some lulls, and they’ve exceeded their SP+ projections by at least 15 points in four of five games. They’re up to sixth in SP+, and their rating is improving rapidly. Georgia remains the SEC favorite with a 45.0% chance to win the title, per SP+, but Bama is at 24.9% and rising. And Russell is up to sixth in Total QBR. He was 22nd two weeks ago.

At the moment, we basically have a four-team race in the SEC, six if you’re being extremely kind to Missouri and Tennessee.

SEC title odds, per SP+
Georgia 45.0% (up 0.3% from last week)
Alabama 24.9% (up 9.7%)
Texas 12.3% (down 3.3%)
LSU 9.9% (up 2.9%)
Missouri 3.0% (up 1.3%)
Tennessee 2.3% (down 0.3%
Everyone else less than 1.0%

Unbeaten Texas obviously remains in the hunt as well — the Longhorns are the No. 1 team in the AP poll, after all — but a stagnant offense has rendered them just eighth in SP+ despite an improving defense. With five top-30 opponents remaining in conference play, they’ll have to improve on O to remain in the hunt. For now, Georgia and Bama have both surpassed the Horns (again).

Heisman race: clearer

THE RECORD-BREAKER (AND HEISMAN POSE) FOR JEREMIAH SMITH. https://t.co/axl4odkRRI
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) October 3, 2026

My Heisman of the Week column doesn’t run until Tuesday, so I don’t know for sure where I’ll rank Jeremiah Smith this week, but let’s assume he ranks quite high and moves into the lead in my Heisman points race. In a 31-14 road win over Iowa, Ohio State’s new all-time receiving touchdowns leader enjoyed a second straight ridiculous game, catching 11 balls for 206 yards and two touchdowns (including a 57-yarder) against a Hawkeyes defense that had been allowing only 152 passing yards per game.

Smith came within 32 yards of outgaining Iowa by himself and had 55% of Ohio State’s catches and 64% of the Buckeyes’ receiving yards. He has 423 yards and six TDs in the last two games. Projected over 14 games, he’s on pace for 2,300 yards and 25 TDs. Randy Moss had 1,709 yards and 28 TDs in FCS in 1996. This is ridiculous.

Smith moved ahead of Trinidad Chambliss to the top of the Heisman odds list at DraftKings last week, and now his odds are down to +115 (equivalent to a 47% chance), ahead of second-place Darian Mensah of Miami (+460, or 17.9%) by a solid margin.

Current Heisman odds, per DraftKings
Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (+115)
Darian Mensah, Miami (+460)
Keelon Russell, Alabama (+750)
CJ Carr, Notre Dame (+800)
Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (+1600)
Gunner Stockton, Georgia (+2900)
Julian Sayin, Ohio State (+3100)
Arch Manning, Texas (+3200)
Kamario Taylor, Mississippi State (+3200)
Malachi Toney, Miami (+3500)

You can’t win the Heisman in the season’s first five weeks, but for every week Smith plays like this, his odds only improve. And with his premade status as college football’s most talented player — and the fact that Ohio State still has plenty of high-visibility games to go — it’s getting pretty difficult to envision the tide turning against him.

Group of 6 CFP race: clearer

On Saturday, Mountain West front-runners North Dakota State and New Mexico beat Wyoming (28-0) and UTEP (61-7) by a combined 82 points. In their first season in FBS, Tim Polasek’s NDSU Bison are 5-0 and have risen to 38th in SP+; the defense is allowing fewer than 10 points per game, and the offense, though probably not as efficient as they would like, is getting key rushing yards from quarterback Nathan Hayes and a torrent of big plays from receivers such as Jackson Williams (four catches for 75 yards Saturday) and Mekhi Collins. Tight end Reis Kessel had a 30-yard catch Saturday too.

Against UTEP on Saturday, New Mexico found a new level of ruthlessness. Toa Fa’avae threw for 249 yards and three TDs, Cameron Matthews (54-yard run) and Bailen George (52-yard catch) had big gainers, and both the UNM defense (65-yard pick-six by Austin Brawley) and special teams (safety off a blocked punt by Brawley) scored before UTEP did.

NDSU is making this all look impossibly easy, but the Bison’s CFP hopes might be stunted because they share a conference with New Mexico. Jason Eck’s Lobos have overachieved against SP+ projections in all five games, which means they might still have room to rise after hopping to 25th in SP+ this week. Their only loss was a tight one to Oklahoma in Norman. They host NDSU on Oct. 24, and if current trends are any indication, they’ll potentially host the Bison again in the MWC championship game.

Looking at the current CFP odds, per SP+, we see a pretty clear race between unbeaten (and rising) James Madison and whoever emerges as the winner between NDSU and UNM.

Current SP+ CFP odds for Group of 6 teams
James Madison 47.2%
North Dakota State 25.9%
New Mexico 11.9%
Boise State 9.8%
Memphis 3.8%
Everyone else at 1.5% or lower

South Florida’s upset loss to Temple on Saturday shifted the American Conference odds over to Memphis, but with a loss to Boise State, the Tigers will be playing catch-up for a while.

FPI still favors one-loss Boise State (35.2%) to the others in this race, and the Broncos have mostly looked the part since their season-opening loss to Oregon. But JMU and NDSU both have decent paths to potential 13-0 records, and a 12-1 New Mexico with two wins over NDSU would have a better résumé than a 12-1 Boise. Either way, I’m going to go ahead and start a “‘GameDay’ to Albuquerque in Week 8” whisper campaign now.

Mike Norvell on the hot seat: cloudier

If you had asked me last week to rank the head coaches most likely to be fired soon, I would have probably said, in order, Maryland’s Mike Locksley, Florida State’s Mike Norvell, South Carolina’s Shane Beamer, Rutgers’ Greg Schiano and, despite a hefty buyout, USC’s Lincoln Riley. Granted, Schiano’s Scarlet Knights didn’t put up much of a fight against Indiana, and while both Maryland and South Carolina started out like houses afire Saturday — Locksley’s Terrapins jumped out to a 16-7 lead on unbeaten Nebraska, while South Carolina went up 17-0 on No. 24 Kentucky at home — they both faded. Maryland got outscored 41-7 the rest of the way, and while the Gamecocks went to overtime with the Wildcats, they still lost.

Florida State, however, did the opposite: The Seminoles spotted Virginia a 7-0 lead in the first quarter in Tallahassee, then scored the game’s final 38 points. The FSU defense allowed 101 yards in UVA’s first 16 snaps but only 104 in the Cavaliers’ last 56, and Ashton Daniels threw for 183 yards and rushed for 136 while Ousmane Kromah and Quintrevion Wisner combined for 126 rushing yards in 26 carries.

The resounding win bumped the Noles from 53rd to 36th in SP+, and while the remaining schedule features all sorts of challenges — four road trips in the next five games (including visits to Louisville, Miami and Pitt), plus a season-ending visit from Florida — an FSU that looks like it did against Virginia will have a chance against anyone on its schedule besides perhaps Miami. Norvell’s fate might remain in his own hands for a bit longer.

(If the Seminoles get thumped by an angry Louisville this coming week, forget I said any of this.)

The race to 10-2 in the Big Ten and SEC: cloudier

While you’re not guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoff with 10 wins and SEC or Big Ten membership — Vanderbilt missed out last season with a 10-2 record, after all — you’re either going to play your way in or very close to it if you can reach double-digit victories. And a lot of teams in these two leagues still have a decent shot of getting there.

Odds of 10 or more regular-season wins for Big Ten or SEC teams:
Georgia 92.3%
Indiana 86.3%
Alabama 75.9%
Texas 60.9%
Ohio State 57.9%
UCLA 43.2%
LSU 41.8%
Nebraska 38.1%
Oregon 31.2%
Tennessee 25.2%
Missouri 22.7%
Wisconsin 18.6%
Iowa 12.7%

Penn State (8.4%), Mississippi State (7.6%) and Florida (7.5%) all fell below 10% with this weekend’s losses, and while Northwestern (7.3%) and Kentucky (4.1%) are on the rise, they still have some catching up to do. (Northwestern’s schedule remains ridiculous, too.)

Still, that’s 13 teams with at least a 1-in-8 chance, and UCLA and Nebraska are both over 3-in-8 now. That’s not how many of us saw this season playing out, though Week 6 will be enormous for both Bob Chesney’s Bruins and Matt Rhule’s Huskers: The former will travel to Oregon, while the latter hosts Indiana. There’s still time for each of them to turn into a pumpkin.

ACC race: clearer (no, make that cloudier)

After the narrowest possible win over unbeaten Virginia Tech in Blacksburg on Friday night, Pitt has moved into the driver’s seat for the second spot, opposite Miami, in the ACC championship game.

ACC title odds, per SP+
Miami 69.9% (up 12.8% from last week)
Pitt 10.6% (up 1.4%)
SMU 6.7% (down 0.2%)
Duke 3.9% (up 0.1%)
Virginia Tech 2.6% (down 3.0%)
Wake Forest 2.4% (up 1.9%)
Everyone else under 2%

Miami is obviously an enormous favorite, so we’re talking about who earns the honor of probably losing to the Hurricanes in Charlotte, but it’s still a pretty big deal to get there.

On paper, things got clarified a bit thanks to both Pitt’s win and devastating losses for both Virginia (down from 11.4% to 1.6% after getting thumped by FSU) and Louisville (down from 3.5% to 1.2% after losing to NC State). But this only seems clearer because SP+ doesn’t take injuries into account.

With Panthers quarterback Mason Heintschel out for the season after an ACL injury suffered in the third quarter Friday, Pitt’s actual odds can’t really be ascertained at the moment. Backup Holden Geriner was a decent 8-of-12 for 78 yards and a touchdown, and the Panthers averaged 4.8 yards per play with him behind center, compared to 4.9 with Heintschel.

Heintschel was having a dramatically up-and-down season behind center, and if Geriner, a journeyman and career backup at Auburn and Texas State, produces a lower ceiling but a higher floor, the Panthers defense could take it from there. They’re 11th nationally in points allowed per drive (1.05), ninth in success rate allowed (31.9%) and 10th in red zone TD rate allowed (40.0%). If this isn’t a Syracuse situation — the Orange were on their way to 3-1 when Steve Angeli went down last year and almost instantly became the worst power-conference team in the nation — Pitt could still be very much involved in the conference title race. But it’s hard to say they’re the clear No. 2.

Bowl hopes for Illinois, Arizona State, TCU and others: cloudier

One of the cooler results of the weekend came in Champaign, where Barry Odom finally scored his long-awaited first Big Ten win — and first win over a power-conference team, for that matter — with a strangely straightforward 24-17 upset of Illinois. There were blown leads throughout the country in Week 5, but the Boilermakers eased out to a 13-0 second-quarter lead and made it hold up. Illinois cut it to 16-10 with a 54-yard Ethan Moczulski field goal midway through the fourth quarter, but Purdue drove 61 yards in seven plays and basically put the game away with an Antonio Harris touchdown.

The win admittedly didn’t do much for Purdue’s bowl hopes — the Boilermakers are still just 2-3 and are projected underdogs in every remaining game. But if you can’t bring loads of joy to your own fan base, it’s sometimes fun to settle for bringing pain to someone else’s.

With the loss, Illinois fell to 2-3 as well, and despite ranking a solid 31st in offensive SP+, the Illini’s bowl odds, per SP+, fell from 56.1% to 30.2%. They’ll have to beat both Michigan State (Week 6) and Maryland (Week 9) on the road and scrounge up one other win as an underdog.

Illinois, Arizona State and Old Dominion led the pack among teams that ended Saturday with very different season expectations than they had Saturday morning.

Largest drops in odds of reaching six wins (per SP+)

Old Dominion (down 29.4 percentage points to 16.4%)

Arizona State (down 28.1 percentage points to 22.8%)

Illinois (down 25.9 percentage points to 30.2%)

Wyoming (down 19.6 percentage points to 18.8%)

Marshall (down 17.8 percentage points to to 56.3%)

Of course, in this zero-sum universe, if someone’s odds are going down, someone else’s are probably rising. Granted, Florida State might not be happy to settle for a mere bowl berth this season when it comes to the Mike Norvell reclamation project, but the Seminoles’ postseason odds improved pretty dramatically Saturday. So did Eastern Michigan’s with the Eagles’ downright rude road blowout of previously unbeaten UMass.

Largest increases in odds of reaching six wins (per SP+)

Eastern Michigan (up 42.0 percentage points to 66.2%)

Florida State (up 40.9 percentage points to 81.6%)

Georgia State (up 29.2 percentage points to 90.7%)

Northwestern (up 28.4 percentage points to 95.0%)

Temple (up 23.8 percentage points to 64.0%)

After losing to Toledo and Army by a combined five points in the two previous games, K.C. Keeler’s Temple Owls upset an all-defense USF team to get back on track. Northwestern’s ascent continued as the 3-1 Wildcats have exceeded projections in all four games — by an average of 20.0 points per game — and even with trips to Oregon and Ohio State ahead they’re almost guaranteed a bowl bid and have a nearly 1-in-3 chance of reaching 9-3 or better. What a great start in Evanston.

American race: slightly clearer

Our best chance for a wild race in the Group of 6 remains in the American Conference, but with USF’s loss to Temple, Tulsa’s loss to North Texas and an out-of-conference loss for Army that dinged the Black Knights’ odds, things are at least a smidgen more focused now. Last week, no one had a greater than 30% title chance, and seven teams were at 6% or higher. Now we have both a clearer favorite and a smaller second tier.

American title odds, per SP+
Memphis 36.3% (up 14.4 percentage points from last week)
Florida Atlantic 13.0% (up 6.2)
South Florida 12.3% (down 17.7)
UTSA 11.6% (down 0.6)
North Texas 9.3% (up 4.0)
Everyone else below 6.0%

That’s right, Zach Kittley’s up-tempo FAU Owls have moved into the No. 2 spot behind Memphis. Following Saturday’s 66-10 blowout of FCS foe Texas Southern, the Owls have overachieved against projections for four straight weeks by an average of 10.6 points per game, and after dropping to 111th in SP+ following a Week 1 blowout loss to Florida, they’ve charged to 70th. However, their schedule is a rough one, and six of their last seven games are projected within 3.2 points. Almost any outcome remains on the table — they currently have a 19% chance of finishing 10-2 or better and a 21% chance of finishing 6-6 or worse.

USF’s loss helped Memphis the most. Charles Huff’s Tigers have beaten a pair of cupcakes — UT Martin and Charlotte, which is currently 138th out of 138 teams in SP+ — by a combined 104-29 to alleviate the frustration of their Week 2 loss to Boise State. They’re up to 16th in points per drive, and along with Indiana they have one of two offenses that rank in the top 15 in both success rate and yards per successful play.

The loss to Boise State really will hurt when it comes to playoff consideration, but the Tigers are still on pace for an excellent season and perhaps their third year of double-digit wins in the past four.

This week in SP+

The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)

Moving up

Here are the five teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:

Georgia State: up 6.9 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 111th to 90th)

Kansas: up 6.3 points (66th to 51st)

Eastern Michigan: up 6.1 points (127th to 111th)

Wake Forest: up 5.8 points (57th to 45th)

Florida State: up 5.3 points (53rd to 36th)

Thanks to mean old EMU, the “Unbeaten UMass!” story came to an ignominious conclusion this week, but we still have another fascinating rise to talk about. Georgia State, 4-20 over the past two seasons, is 4-1 and has overachieved against SP+ projections by at least 15 points every week this season. SP+ is still trying to catch up to the Panthers, who have a bye week before a Week 7 trip to James Madison. Either that puts an end to the feel-good story or it shifts into a completely new gear.

Moving down

Here are the five teams whose ratings fell the most:

Virginia: down 5.9 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 21st to 48th)

Penn State: down 5.1 points (15th to 30th)

Florida: down 4.4 points (12th to 20th)

Rutgers: down 4.2 points (75th to 94th)

Stanford: down 4.1 points (102nd to 114th)

You could say the biggest points exchange of the week happened in Tallahassee, where Florida State’s 38-7 drubbing of Virginia resulted in 11.2 points of change in SP+ — FSU moved up 5.3, and UVA moved down 5.9. Virginia has now overachieved against projections by at least 17 points twice and underachieved by at least 20 points twice. Talk about a moving target.

My 10 favorite games of the weekend

1. FCS: Idaho 35, No. 1 Montana State 34. After three gut-wrenching losses in four games, Idaho came out swinging haymakers against top-ranked Montana State in the Kibbie Dome. The Vandals’ first play was a 75-yard touchdown pass, but after six lead changes, MSU seemed to take control, going up 34-20 early in the fourth quarter. The Bobcats missed a field goal up 34-27, however, and Idaho took full advantage of one last shot.

Behold, an absolutely perfect 75 seconds or so of college football:

Idaho upsets Montana State in epic fashion with late TD and 2-point conversion

2. FCS: Harvard 20, Colgate 17. Idaho-Montana State was the best game, but this one might have had the best ending of the season thus far. The first 57:52 of this game featured just 17 points, but the last 2:08 featured 20, with Harvard taking the lead, Colgate seemingly winning it with a touchdown with 27 seconds left, and Harvard pulling off a miracle.

Harvard pulls off a Hail Mary hook-and-ladder on final play of game to beat Colgate

3-5. No. 24 Kentucky 35, South Carolina 34 (OT); North Texas 45, Tulsa 44 (OT); Syracuse 42, UConn 41 (OT). It seemed like every other FBS game was attempting to replicate Idaho-Montana State. I thank them for it.

In Columbia, two weeks after South Carolina watched a 16-0 lead turn into a seven-point loss, the host Gamecocks went up 17-0 after 19 minutes, and while Kentucky charged back to take a 24-20 lead into the fourth quarter, South Carolina scored to make it 27-24, forced a three-and-out and started driving again. But LaNorris Sellers simply dropped the ball on a fourth-and-2 rush, and Kentucky drove for the game-tying field goal. Then, after the Gamecocks started OT with a touchdown, the Wildcats scored on a Kenny Minchey-to-Henry Boyer pass and won it on a Minchey-to-Willie Rodriguez 2-pointer.

In Tulsa, in a game that technically happened before Idaho-MSU (minor details), North Texas used a 28-3 run to seize control, but Tulsa charged back to tie the game twice in the fourth quarter. North Texas scored first in OT, and while Damari Alston responded with a TD for the hosts, this 2-pointer failed, and the Mean Green held on.

In East Hartford, Connecticut, Syracuse used a 28-7 run to take a 20-point lead late in the first half, but UConn scored the last 20 points of regulation — it would have been 21 if not for a missed PAT — and scored first in OT. You can probably piece together the rest: Amari Odom found Umari Hatcher for a 17-yard Syracuse score, then ran for the 2-pointer for the win.

6. FCS: Grambling 63, Alcorn State 59. The best popcorn-flick track meet of the week. Grambling went on an early 21-0 run, but Alcorn took full control with a 24-0 run in the second half. The Braves led 59-42 with less than seven minutes remaining, but the G-Men scored, recovered a fumble, scored again, forced a three-and-out and scored the winning points on an 11-yard Ashton Frye-to-Tyson George pass with 19 seconds remaining.

7. FCS: Mississippi Valley State 28, Prairie View A&M 27. Wow, the FCS brought the goods this weekend. And MVSU scored just its third win over an FCS opponent in 31 tries by lulling heavily favored PVAMU to sleep. The Panthers eased to a 24-0 lead late in the first half, but a trio of Josh Brown touchdown runs, including a 62-yarder, cut the lead to 24-21. When PVAMU responded with a field goal, Brown drove the Delta Devils 75 yards and found Caleb Brownlow for a touchdown to complete a shocking comeback.

8. Division III: No. 19 Wisconsin-La Crosse 32, Wisconsin-Oshkosh 31. My irrational love of the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference continues to be a rewarding experience. The eight-team WIAC began conference play Saturday and gave us a trio of one-score finishes and a pair of classics. In Oshkosh, UW-La Crosse watched a 17-0 lead disappear thanks to an otherworldly performance from Demir Ashiru (228 passing yards, 209 rushing yards!). But down 31-24 late, the Eagles scored on a 12-yard Kyle Hass-to-Braden Ott touchdown and — you guessed it — went for two points and the win. Keaton Arendt scored the decisive points.

9. Division III: No. 7 Wisconsin-Whitewater 24, No. 2 Wisconsin-River Falls 16. The D-III game of the week was also great. In front of a crowd of 20,118 in Whitewater, two long Tommy Novotny runs gave UWW an early 14-2 lead over the defending national champion, and Novotny’s third score made it 24-16 in the fourth quarter. UWRF turned the ball over on downs at the UWW 35 with 9:15 left but got one last chance and drove to the UWW 4 in the closing seconds before a pair of Cade Fitzgerald passes fell incomplete. The Warhawks are back.

10. Pitt 35, Virginia Tech 33. This one’s going to hurt in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech outgained Pitt by 204 yards but turned the ball over three times in four second-half drives to fall behind 35-24 despite Pitt’s Mason Heintschel leaving the game with a knee injury. A safety and a touchdown brought the Hokies within two, but John Love a game-winning field goal attempt at the buzzer. Or at least, I think he missed it. Even the most damning angle isn’t perfectly lined up.