El Niño – the naturally-occurring climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean – is continuing to grow and by some measures is already the strongest on record.
The heat released from the warm Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere impacts weather patterns around the globe.
In autumn it increases the chance of wet and stormy weather in the UK – something that is reflected in the forecasts for this season.
In late winter, the waves of energy released by El Niño can move upwards through the atmosphere making it more likely that the polar vortex becomes disrupted, increasing the chance of ice and snow.
However, the links are unclear and the evidence is mixed.
The so-called Big Freeze of 2009/2010 was, at the time, the coldest winter in three decades – and coincided with an El Niño.
However, 2006/2007 was also an El Niño winter and was unseasonably warm.
The so-called Beast from the East in 2018 actually occurred during a La Niña year, effectively the opposite of El Niño.
So while El Niño is already having big impacts on global weather, and may influence the polar vortex later in winter, snow and ice in the UK is far from guaranteed.
Current forecasts suggest no significant cold or snow is likely in the near future.
You can read the latest outlook for the next month here.
