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Happy Independence Day, everyone! Nothing says independence more than the freedom to take our hard-earned money and put it on a sport that most only watch every four years.
We do it with the Olympics, and we do it with the World Cup. We’ve had quite a few swings and misses, but we’ve also cashed a couple of solid plus-money plays. Let’s try to do it again.
Canada vs. Morocco
This marks the start of the round of 16. There aren’t really too many lopsided matches in terms of odds any longer. (More on that in a moment.) Instead, we should be getting the best teams and solid matches from here on out. Canada vs. Morocco is no exception. Canada is here after taking down Saudi Arabia.
I haven’t seen much out of our neighbors to the north that I’ve been overly impressed with. It’s scored at least one goal in every game and gotten two shutouts, so there is some stuff to hang its hat on.
MOROCCO SENDS THE NETHERLANDS HOME WITH DRAMATIC WORLD CUP KNOCKOUT IN PENALTIES
Morocco defender Jawad El Yamiq (18) attempts a shot during a Qatar 2022 World Cup semifinal football match against France at the Al-Bayt Stadium in Al Khor, north of Doha, Dec. 14, 2022. (Karim Jaafar/AFP)
Morocco had a much more difficult task of getting the victory against the Netherlands. It won in penalty kicks, and it was a wild shootout. It also hasn’t actually lost a match yet and has just one draw. This should be a tight game, and a draw at +245 is where the value lies, in my opinion. I’m not going to tell you it’s a safe bet, but I think these two teams are a bit more evenly matched, and neither seems to be super aggressive on offense. Give me the draw.
France’s Kylian Mbappé, left, celebrates after scoring the opening goal by a penalty shot during a Euro 2024 group B qualifying soccer match agaist Greece at the Stade de France outside Paris June 19, 2023. (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)
Paraguay vs. France
If you watched the Argentina game yesterday, you know that lines don’t always tell you the full story of how things will go. The Argentinians were massive favorites, and Cape Verde gave them all they could handle. Argentina won 3-2, but it took extra time to get there. Paraguay has a chance to do that today against France.
France is -1600 to advance, meaning even if it goes to penalty kicks, France is still the massive favorite. Paraguay beat Germany in penalty kicks for its win to get here. It was its best game of the tournament.
France’s Olivier Giroud celebrates after Kylian Mbappé scored their side’s second goal during a World Cup round of 16 soccer match between France and Poland at the Al Thumama Stadium in Doha, Qatar, Dec. 4, 2022. (AP Photo/Ricardo Mazalan)
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France has looked unstoppable. It is still the favorite to win the World Cup. If you’ve watched France, and even if you’re not a soccer enthusiast, you can see why. Kylian Mbappé has been dynamic and continues to rack up goals.
He is a real threat to Messi and the Golden Boot. He is -205 to score a goal today. I prefer his teammate, Ousmane Dembélé. I think so much attention goes to Mbappé that Dembélé, who already has four goals himself this tournament, gets less attention and easier looks. I’m going to play him to score at +105.
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