ASHBURN, Va. — The Washington Commanders‘ hopes of climbing into the NFC East race focuses on a variety of factors: The NFC East isn’t good; the schedule eases up; Jayden Daniels is healthy and playing well.
What they need to provide legitimate hope, though, is something that hasn’t occurred nearly enough: wins.
As Washington returns from its bye week, it does have renewed belief despite a 1-4-1 record heading into Sunday’s game against the Eagles (2-5).
“Belief is really powerful,” Washington coach Dan Quinn said, “knowing that you’re capable of doing these things. And so, my belief in them as a group is really strong.”
But that belief does need to turn into wins soon in order for Washington to have any realistic shot at being a factor in the division the rest of the season.
It also can impact Quinn’s job security. While multiple team sources say there’s no immediate jeopardy, a second losing season in a row — they were 5-12 last season — would lead to much speculation about a fourth season for Quinn.
Players say they’re not focused on that aspect. With 11 games remaining they still believe they have a chance — and the next three games will be pivotal as divisional games between Philadelphia and New York are sandwiched around a conference one vs. the Rams.
“We certainly know what’s ahead over the next three games,” Quinn said.
They also haven’t lost faith in who they have.
“We’ve got everything we need in this locker room to compete with anyone in the NFL,” nose tackle Tim Settle said. “Execution has been the hard [part] or lack of being able to execute and stop shooting ourselves in the foot will be critical to our season from here on out.”
It does help that they play in the NFC East, in which the Giants are in first place at 4-2-1 and coming off an impressive road win at Houston in quarterback J.J. McCarthy‘s first start.
Otherwise, the division has been a mess. The Eagles have lost five in a row; Dallas is only 3-4, and Washington is just 2.5 games out of first and plays everyone in the division once more. The Commanders are 0-2-1 in the division after blowing a 14-point fourth-quarter lead in a 27-27 tie vs. New York earlier this month.
Blowing a chance to win in overtime vs. New York because of a botched sequence on the final play and then having a rally fall short at San Francisco a week later would test any team.
“This team is probably the most mentally tough team I’ve been on,” running back Austin Ekeler said. “There’s not one moment where when we’ve been down that there’s a disbelief in anybody. The energy, the mental discipline to stay locked in is still there. The mental fortitude is extremely strong. That’s reassuring … but that doesn’t guarantee you wins.”
Still, because only one team has a winning record — and is on its third quarterback — it provides at least the illusion of hope for others. But the Commanders also know that’s not enough.
“We have to take care of our business,” Ekeler said. “As much as we can look at the division, it all comes back to us. We’ve got to win our games. It’s great for us [that no one is pulling away], but we’ve got to win now. I guess that’s a positive, but it won’t matter until we take care of business.”
Washington’s schedule also eases up, at least on paper. The Commanders opened the season with road games at Philadelphia and Dallas before hosting Seattle. They capped the first six games with a Monday night road game at San Francisco. Washington finished 1-3 in those games. They also lost to the Colts in London, in part because backup quarterback Marcus Mariota injured his knee in the first quarter and rookie seventh-round pick Athan Kaliakmanis made his NFL debut.
But in the next seven weeks Washington plays only two teams that currently have a winning record — the Giants and Cincinnati. Also, Washington has first-year coordinators on both sides of the ball; if they hired the right people — and have the right players — they should improve as the season progresses. To this point, however, there has been uneven play.
“This is a very capable team,” Ekeler said, “but we are like a bucket of water poking holes in ourselves. We’re carrying it, we’re going and now it’s starting to drain. That’s the most frustrating part about it, but also one of the nice parts because we can fix that.”
Perhaps the biggest reason for optimism remains Daniels. He’s played two consecutive games wearing a brace on his left elbow that he dislocated in Week 2. In those games, Daniels has thrown for a combined 499 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for another 113 and two scores. As one player said before the Week 6 meeting in San Francisco, “when he plays like that, we always have a chance.”
Even with receiver Terry McLaurin done for the season with a torn patellar tendon, there’s confidence in the offense because of Daniels. But there is one caveat: They need to protect him better. He has been hit on 27.3% of his dropbacks — third highest in the NFL. But he also has a 90.5 quarterback rating out of 100 in the second half of the past two games.
“We have to keep him off the ground,” Ekeler said. “Jayden has taken a lot of hits. When we keep him up, we can go. That’s what it will come down to and there’s no sugarcoating it.”
Quinn said they want Daniels to stick with some routes a little longer, pointing to missed opportunities vs. San Francisco. They also would like to see him throw more when he scrambles — then again, he scored on touchdown runs of 38 and 26 yards vs. the Giants in Week 5.
“That’s kind of the blessing and the curse of when do I scramble? When do I move out? When do I go?” Quinn said. “Those are fair comparisons when you see a window like, ‘Hey, man, this is the time to go let it rip.’ One of the things I appreciate from Jay is he puts the ball in the right location when it’s contested or when it’s not.”
Washington wanted to improve in the turnover differential this season and it has. so far, the Commanders are plus-six for the season, having turned the ball over only twice in the first six games. Of the top eight teams in this category, six have winning records.
But of the 10 teams that have played only six games, Washington has committed more penalties than all but two. Here’s why that matters: 25 of their 69 drives this season have featured at least one penalty; the Commanders have scored a touchdown on two of those series.
“It throws us off rhythm,” guard Sam Cosmi said.
And they need to run the ball better. Washington ranks ninth in rushing yards per game and 10th in yards per carry. But, when it comes to just running backs, the Commanders are 24th and 25th, respectively. Some of that comes down to better play fakes; better blocking by tight ends and receivers and backs finishing EEruns. In other words: Everything that makes up the run game has to improve.
“I want to make sure that the finishing of run plays, that’s noticeable to you in the weeks ahead,” Quinn said Monday.
Washington’s last two quarters were among its best as it rallied from a 23-3 deficit and had the ball in the final minute with a chance to upset the 49ers on the road, only to lose 23-17. The defense played well in the second half — after allowing 85 points after halftime the previous four weeks combined, they allowed just three.
Not everyone was celebrating.
“We lost,” safety Jeremy Reaves said. “We measure progress in wins and losses.”
But, perhaps, there was a mentality they can — and need to — carry forward. Not just as a defense but as a team.
As Settle said, “We got tired of getting hit in the mouth.”
