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EXCLUSIVE: More than $1.2 billion has now been traded on Kalshi’s midterm markets for the 2026 election, surpassing the platform’s volume during the 2024 presidential election year, according to data shared exclusively with Fox News Digital.
The surge stands out in a midterm year, when there’s no presidential race to draw the same level of national attention.
Unlike traditional polls, which capture voter sentiment at a particular moment, prediction markets shift as traders react to debates, fundraising, endorsements and breaking news, offering campaigns and political observers a real-time read on how expectations are changing.
THE BATTLE FOR CONGRESS GETS A WALL STREET-STYLE SCOREBOARD POWERED BY REAL MONEY
Control of the House and Senate is at stake in the midterms, with the outcome set to shape President Donald Trump’s agenda for the rest of his term. (Al Drago/Getty Images)
The money is flowing into a contest that could determine whether President Donald Trump faces a Congress ready to advance his agenda or one ready to instead launch back-to-back investigations into his administration.
Kalshi traders are wagering on individual House, Senate and gubernatorial races, as well as which party will control each chamber come January 2027.
The company’s industry data, obtained by Fox News Digital, offers a glimpse of how traders are sizing up the election and where their predictions diverge.
Kalshi data shows how traders in 23 industries are wagering on the 2026 midterms, with law enforcement traders leaning Republican and arts and entertainment traders favoring Democrats. (Kalshi)
The data also shows a sharp difference in how traders inside and outside two states are betting on closely watched Senate races.
In Maine, out-of-state traders are putting more money on Democrat Troy Jackson than in-state traders are: 61% versus 36%. In Michigan, 65% of out-of-state traders’ money is on Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, compared with 49% of in-state traders’ money. That means traders in both states are putting less money on the Democratic candidate than traders elsewhere are.
Kalshi launched its Midterms Hub in July, combining live market odds with polling averages, fundraising data, historical election results and political news for House, Senate and gubernatorial races.
Law enforcement traders put 67.9% of their dollars on Republicans, the biggest GOP lean among the listed industries. Meanwhile, arts and entertainment traders showed the strongest Democratic tilt, putting 60.1% of their money on Democrats.
The divide also appears in other fields. Traders in mining, energy and chemicals put 62.6% of their dollars on Republicans, while education traders put 58.3% on Democrats. However, in legal services and electronics, traders were nearly split.
PREDICTION MARKETS FAVOR DEMOCRATS IN NEW YORK, NEW JERSEY, VIRGINIA ELECTION DAY RACES
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S.-based prediction market exchange that allows users to trade on the outcomes of political, economic and other real-world events. (Laura Brett/Getty Images)
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The figures show where traders expect the races to land, not which party they personally support or how workers in those industries plan to vote.
With control of Congress on the line, Kalshi’s markets will keep shifting as traders react to new developments in the closing weeks of the midterm campaigns.
