The current debate over Pakistan’s mineral wealth presents an opportunity to reshape our economic future. These mineral resources present the possibility of new economic activity, industrial development, skilled employment, new export markets and investment beyond the sectors on which our economy has traditionally depended. But the real wealth is not what lies under the surface. It is the productive economy and financial ecosystem Pakistan can build on top of it.
The question before us is how to convert geological potential into commercial realisation. Discoveries and breakthroughs must become feasible projects, licences must draw investment, extraction must facilitate competitive industries, and public resources must produce long-term benefits for citizens. This requires more than mineral wealth; we need institutions capable of converting that fortune into national prosperity.
According to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26, mining and quarrying grew by just 0.38% in FY2026, accounting for approximately 1.40% of GDP. This reveals the scale of the opportunity, as the category includes diverse activities, from solid minerals to oil and gas, whose performance varies. Nonetheless, the figures emphasise the gap between Pakistan’s geological capacity and the contribution its extractive sector makes to the economy. The way forward is not to lower our aspirations, but to raise the standard of execution.
For instance, mining exports of Chile recorded around $63.25 billion in 2025. Copper was 59% of its total exports, worth $36.28 billion. Chile’s experience offers a valuable lesson, ie the greatest gains come when a country acquires the skills, suppliers, technology and processing capabilities that surround extraction. Geological resources, specialised expertise, infrastructure and access to global markets can certainly generate an internationally competitive export sector.
The Australian mining sector is another example: the mining and quarrying sector accounted for approximately $280 billion in inward foreign-investment stock in 2025, around 30.6% of the country’s total inward investment stock. This is obviously accumulated investment, not annual inflows, but it demonstrates the magnitude of capital that can be channelled when investors have confidence in taxation policies, commercial rules, infrastructure and institutional competence.
Indonesia has gone one step further and pursued another important objective: it has created synergy between mineral extraction and its domestic industrial development. Its realised mining-sector investment reached almost $12 billion in 2025. Its industrial policy seeks to intensify domestic processing and manufacturing. Pakistan can certainly draw from this experience without assuming that every mineral should be processed locally at any cost. The objective must be commercially feasible value addition, supported by reliable energy, technology, skilled workers and access to international markets.
Saudi Arabia is also aiming to double foreign direct investment in its mining sector. Under its Vision 2030, the kingdom is anticipating increasing mining-sector capital investment from $12 billion in 2024 to nearly $25 billion by 2030. These are targets, not realised outcomes, but what makes their approach more instructive is the effort to connect exploration with infrastructure, logistics, financing and competitive downstream industries. Over the last five years, the kingdom has reported a fivefold increase in exploration, in line with its ambition to develop an integrated industrial ecosystem, not just extract and export raw materials.
These examples from different countries tell us that successful mineral economies are built through sustained investment, credible institutions and deliberate industrial development policies. Pakistan too has potential; for instance, Reko Diq demonstrate the scale of its possibilities. It can become a major source of investment, exports, employment and technical expertise. Barrick Mining Corporation’s estimated capital costs are $5.6–6.0 billion for Phase One and $3.3–3.6 billion for Phase Two, on a 100% project basis and excluding capitalised financing costs. These remain estimates, not realised expenditure. The message is straightforward: we must have an appropriate security apparatus, along with infrastructure enhancement and political stability, in place to realise these world-class opportunities.
Hence, Pakistan needs a mineral-sector framework built around quantifiable outcomes. Every major project should be assessed against this cost-benefit analysis: how much investment has actually been realised; how much value is added within Pakistan; what revenue reaches the public; what employment and economic benefits accrue to local communities; and whether environmental commitments and ESG targets are being fulfilled.
These outcomes should form the basis of an annual public mineral-sector performance account. Published in accessible form, it should report production, exports, investment realised, royalties and taxes collected, employment, local procurement and environmental compliance. Major projects should be disclosed individually wherever legally possible, with legitimate commercial confidentiality protected. This would enable citizens, investors and policymakers to distinguish genuine progress from announcements and help government identify where projects are being delayed or value is being lost.
The state’s role is fundamental. It must establish predictable licensing rules, enforce contracts, maintain transparent records and ensure that all operators compete on a level playing field. Public authorities should act first and foremost as impartial regulators. Where the state participates commercially, its regulatory responsibilities must remain distinct from its commercial interests. Clear rules benefit responsible domestic enterprises as much as international investors.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provides an immediate opportunity to demonstrate this approach. Claims concerning mineral production, sales and potentially payable royalties should be reconciled against verified records, including production data, invoices, mineral composition, applicable royalty rates and payments received. An independent audit should establish the facts, publish its findings and identify any confirmed shortfall for recovery under the law. Allegations must not be mistaken for proven losses. Equally, no operator, whether small or large, private or state-owned, should be exempt from the same standards of accountability.
The opportunity extends beyond revenue collection. Federal and provincial institutions must coordinate within the constitutional framework, while mineral-producing communities must see tangible benefits through employment, vocational training, infrastructure, water security and environmental protection. Communities should be partners in development, not afterthoughts. Responsible mining requires both a secure operating environment and a credible social compact.
Nor should Pakistan pursue industrialisation through slogans or uneconomic mandates. Domestic refining and processing should be developed where resource quality, energy costs, technology and market access make them competitive. The government can enable this through infrastructure, technical education, reliable regulation and investment partnerships. It should create the conditions for productive enterprise rather than attempt to substitute administrative direction for commercial judgement.
We have the opportunity to build a mineral economy that strengthens our balance of payments, broadens our industrial base and creates skilled employment for our new generation. Of course, attaining this will require patience, technical competence and stability across political cycles. Mines will take years to develop; investor confidence and institutional credibility will take considerable time to establish, but all can be lost quickly if conditions remain unfavourable.
There is no room for complacency, as Pakistan has already missed so many opportunities. We must approach our mineral resources with confidence, and our objective must be to move from extraction to competitive value addition, from potential to production and from public announcements to measurable national advantage.
Pakistan’s mineral wealth will eventually be assessed not by what it uncovers beneath the ground, but by what it builds above it and transforms: productive industries, skilled workers, enhanced institutional capacity and long-lasting national prosperity.
The writer is a political economist, public policy commentator and advocate for principled leadership and regional cooperation across the Muslim world.
Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed in this piece are the writer’s own and don’t necessarily reflect Geo.tv’s editorial policy.
Originally published in The News
