Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted after Iran’s attack on a Cypriot-flagged container ship over the weekend set off an exchange of strikes with the United States, culminating in President Trump saying he would reimpose the U.S. blockade on Iran.
Just 14 ships passed through the waterway on Sunday in both directions, the fewest in a month, according to figures from Kpler, a maritime data firm.
Mr. Trump said in a social media post on Monday that he would reinstate the U.S. Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports, which would prevent “Iran’s ships or customers from entering or leaving” the strait.
He added that the United States would provide security for other ships in the waterway but would charge a fee at the “rate of 20% on all cargo shipped” for “any and all costs necessary.”
Before the start of the war in late February, an average of more than 130 vessels transited the strait daily. In mid-June, when the United States and Iran signed a preliminary agreement to reopen the strait, traffic spiked. In the seven days starting June 20, nearly 400 ships moved through the strait, the most in a one-week period since the war began.
But hopes for a recovery in shipping quickly faded with Iran’s renewed attacks on ships. U.S. forces launched a round of strikes on military targets in Iran that spilled into Monday. The operation, which used fighter jets, naval vessels, aerial drones and, for the first time, sea drones, aimed to degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial ships.
As of Monday morning, Iranian ships were moving oil through the Persian Gulf, when other ships were not, said Ami Daniel, the chief executive of Windward, a maritime data company. The imposition of a U.S. blockade, yet again, would completely change the outlook for Iran.
“It’s a giant change,” Mr. Daniel said, referring to Mr. Trump’s comments that the United States would charge a fee for providing security for ships. “The U.S. actually is kind of stepping into the void, if you will, because I don’t think we have seen other countries step in to ensure the safety and security of the trade.”
The threat to ships has risen sharply over the past week, as Iran has increased its attacks on commercial ships. An Indian crew member was still missing on Monday after the Cypriot-flagged container ship, the GFS Galaxy, was hit over the weekend, according to Reuters, which cited Cyprus’s Deputy Ministry of Shipping.
Jakob Larsen, the chief safety and security officer at BIMCO, the world’s largest shipping association, said the memorandum of understanding between United States and Iran was problematic because it diminished the importance of international conventions regulating shipping, which allow for free passage of ships through international waterways. The agreement also did not address fundamental disagreements between the two countries, he said.
“At the same time, Iran retains the capability to target shipping with drones and missiles throughout the strait and surrounding waters, and recent events suggest it is prepared to exercise that capability,” Mr. Larsen said.
Ship traffic through the strait, Mr. Larsen said, is likely to remain low “for as long as the Iranian threat remains intact.”
“It is difficult to say how long it will take to reduce the Iranian threat to an acceptable level,” he added, “as it depends on several factors such as the U.S. capability and effort to physically destroy the threat, and the impact of renewed economic sanctions on Iran.”
