Are you excited for NFL Week 10? With nine weeks in the history books and nine more weeks to go, I can’t remember a season with as dense a top tier of NFL contenders. Nobody feels immortal, but many teams feel mighty. We’re gonna learn a lot in Week 10 — the Patriots against the Lions in Munich, the Vikings in Green Bay for a critical divisional rematch, and the Steelers at the Bengals on Sunday night — and a lot more in the weeks to come. November should be fun.
Every Tuesday of the NFL season, I’ll turn the page from the previous week to the upcoming one with seven things I think. These aren’t full-scale predictions. They aren’t concrete takeaways from the past week of NFL action, either; those are fired off Sunday or Monday. Instead, these are the uncertain topics. They are things that might be true, but it’ll probably take the next few games to find out. And at the bottom, you’ll find a few extra half-thoughts … just those little inklings I’m unable to shake.
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This week, I’ll start by lauding the Jaguars for going all-in on the trade deadline Monday, play some deadline bingo and then cast my votes for a midseason All-Pro team.
Jump to:
Jaguars are AFC favorites?
Quiet trade deadline on the horizon?
Who makes the midseason All-Pro team?
Sanders isn’t good enough to unseat Watson?
Could Lock be a bridge QB in 2027?
Warner is the best football player?
Vikings need to trade for a QB?
Some extra inklings
I think … the Jaguars are going to win the AFC (and maybe more)
They certainly think so, too!
Monday was Jaguars day in the NFL, as second-year general manager James Gladstone made three trades during the day. He sent a 2027 second-rounder and 2028 fifth-rounder to Atlanta for safety Jessie Bates III. Then, he sent a 2028 sixth-rounder to the Saints for nose tackle Davon Godchaux. These two trades addressed Jacksonville’s two biggest sudden needs after the season-ending injuries to safety Eric Murray and nose tackle DaVon Hamilton.
But then, the stunner: The Jaguars sent their 2027 first-round pick and a 2029 second-round pick to the Eagles for defensive tackle Jordan Davis, a premier run stuffer whom the Eagles had given a three-year, $78 million extension in March.
It doesn’t take a degree in trade deadline analysis to figure out that the 6-2 Jaguars, who traded away five picks, three of which were top-64 selections, are going all-in on a team they believe is on the inside track for the Super Bowl. These three players all serve critical roles in that effort. Let’s talk about all three, starting with the most important.
Godchaux is a — nah. Just messing.
Davis is a tricky player to figure out. He broke out in 2025 — Year 4 of his NFL career — with a career-best 16.5% run stop rate, good for fourth best among all defensive tackles. His run stop EPA (total value he generated on all of his run stops) was also fourth in the league. He ranked alongside Cameron Heyward, Quinnen Williams, Leonard Williams and Jeffery Simmons.
Year 3 or Year 4 breakouts for defensive tackles — especially heavier tackles who really need to manage their weight and conditioning — are more common than you’d think. Vita Vea made his first Pro Bowl in Year 4 and had his best run stop rate and run stop EPA of his career in that season. Dexter Lawrence II was a good run stuffer early but popped as a pass rusher in Year 4, as his pressure rate in that season remains his career-best mark.
Davis entered 2025 with a lighter frame and tremendous conditioning. This season, Davis has seemed slower and more prone to sitting on blocks. His effort has waned at times. He could be in worse shape. He could also be disengaged from a bad team and bad defense overall.
The Jaguars are betting that he’ll play better on their competitive roster — perhaps something closer to his 2025 form. They need him to, as he has huge shoes to fill. Through the first seven weeks of the season, the Jaguars’ defense was the league’s best against running back carries, ranking first in yards allowed per carry, first in yards allowed per game, first in success rate, second in EPA per carry allowed and first in opponent first-down rate. Hamilton was not the only contributor to that effort (edges Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen help, too), but he was key. The Jaguars want to be a light box defense — six or fewer defenders in the box — (35.6% light boxes through Week 7, 10th-highest rate) and need defensive linemen who can take more than one opposing player in the run fit. Hamilton was that player for them on the interior … a space-eater.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) November 10, 2026
Hamilton went down with a season-ending injury early in Week 8, and the potential decline in the Jaguars’ run defense became a weakness worth monitoring. And the trade for Davis makes it clear that the Jaguars believe their defensive structure doesn’t work without that scale-tipping player at nose tackle. When Hamilton was healthy, the Jaguars were allowing 3.8 yards per play with him on the field and 6.9 yards per play with him off the field, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That role cannot be platooned.
Hamilton wasn’t much of a pass rusher for the Jaguars, and Davis doesn’t need to be, either. The Jags are one of the most aggressive teams in the league for mug fronts (defenders filling gaps near the line of scrimmage), stunts and twists, and fire zone blitzes. Remember, defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile was Brian Flores’ linebackers coach for three seasons in Miami before he spent one year under Vic Fangio, who coached Davis in Philadelphia. (That shared year of language should help ease Davis’ on-ramp into the new defense.)
Though Campanile’s blitz rate (30.9%) doesn’t look particularly Floresian, he spins many of the same dials. The Jaguars are seventh in team pressure rate and first in time to pressure (Vikings are first and fifth, respectively) thanks to how many free rushers they manufacture in their blitzes and simulated pressures. Minnesota is first in quick pressure rate; Jacksonville is third. The Jaguars are second in total unblocked pressures; the Vikings are fourth.
Flores uses these wild blitz looks on all three downs, and Campanile deploys them on long-and-late downs. Davis’ value will be in creating run stuffs and manufacturing more second-and-longs and third-and-longs. He’ll come off the field for these heavy-blitz looks and never have a high pass rush win rate accordingly, but his wins on early downs create these opportunities. The same can be said for Godchaux as Davis’ backup.
Bates, meanwhile, will be on the field for all of those wacky third downs, and he will feast on them. He is one of the smartest players on the field at any given time, quarterbacks included. The 29-year-old is not as fast as he once was, but his play recognition and ball skills still allow him to make high-impact plays on the football (three forced fumbles, four passes defensed). The Jaguars manufacture plays on the ball already; they’re second in the league in defensive turnover EPA since the start of this season and first since the start of last season. Bates is another player who is excellent at addressing the football.
So why make the move? Well, the Jaguars still needed better coverage presence in the last level of the defense. All of their defensive metrics are healthy — third in EPA per drive, second in success rate, second in points allowed per drive — save for one: explosive pass rate. They allowed an explosive pass on 14.4% of dropbacks, the sixth-highest rate. If Bates’ center-field presence knocks that number down to league average, the Jaguars’ defense will be difficult to expose.
Bates is also a great tackler, which is critical in this system. Thanks to all the coverage rotations, mugged looks and sudden droppers, the ball comes out fast against Jacksonville. Opposing quarterbacks have a 2.73-second time to throw (fourth fastest) against the Jags’ defense, and those quick shallow throws turn into big YAC gains without defensive backs who can reliably take down ball carriers in space. That’s Bates, who is fourth among all safeties in solo tackles this season (35).
When I wrote about Campanile last week as a potential head coach candidate, I remarked that the Jaguars’ defense employed no players who were paid in the top 10 of their respective positions. Now, they have two in Davis and Bates. Of course, the Jaguars will not be responsible for the full contracts of either player, but the talent leap on the defense is impossible to ignore.
Jacksonville is the only team in the AFC playoff picture that I confidently believe has a top-five offense and a top-five defense. Bills defense, no shot. Broncos offense, no shot. Bengals defense, improved but no shot. Chiefs defense, solid but not that caliber. The Jaguars paid a pretty penny to buttress that defense with star talent, but as a leader in a thick AFC playoff race, it’s tough to fault them for trying to draw ahead of the pack.
I’m buying what the Jaguars are selling this year. I called them the class of the AFC after Week 4, and they’ve met their midseason injuries with equal, if not superior, players. Why would I call them anything less than the class of the AFC now? It won’t be easy, but if I had to pick one team to win the conference right now, I’d take the Jaguars.
I think … trade deadline day ends up really quiet
I’m sorry! I don’t want to be a stick in the mud. I love the trade deadline. I think we should have three trade deadlines. (Don’t ask me how it would work.) I just think this year will fall short of expectations.
I think we’ll see a lot of Day 3 pick swaps and smaller trades. Maybe Jets edge rusher Will McDonald IV, Commanders cornerback Mike Sainristil and Eagles cornerback Riq Woolen move. I think the biggest name dealt Tuesday will be Colts receiver Josh Downs. Jonathan Taylor‘s market seems to be cooling, and the Jaguars are still reluctant to move wideout Brian Thomas Jr. at anything less than market rate. I’m sure there will be reporting that the Bills did their best to acquire Budda Baker from Arizona and the Chiefs made a healthy offer for George Pickens in Dallas, but nothing materialized.
Don’t get me wrong: Monday rocked. The Jaguars flipped a second-round pick for Bates and grabbed a depth defensive tackle in Godchaux and looked like they were done. Then, the big splash: Davis to the Jaguars for a 2027 first-rounder and 2029 second-rounder. As I wrote at the top … the Jaguars are going for the Super Bowl, as they should.
But I think Tuesday will be quiet. The Jaguars under Gladstone are our best agents of content (see: Travis Hunter trade), and they already did the heavy lifting Monday. In this era of salary cap management, Monday is a better day for deals because teams can rework contracts and then trade players Tuesday after the restructuring has been processed by the league. Any players traded Tuesday can’t have their contract touched — it wouldn’t process before the 4 p.m. ET deadline.
In anticipation of that deadline, I always play a round of deadline bingo. I have 24 predictions for Tuesday fit onto my 25-piece board. Last year, I missed bingo by one square — a player-for-player swap. This year, I will win. (There’s no prize, and I’m playing against myself exclusively. But if you want to make your own board as well, please do and shoot me a picture!)
I think … these are the midseason All-Pro teams
We’re officially midway through the 18-week season. Though the headline of Week 9 is almost always about the trade deadline, it is a good spot for some midseason awards. I like to update my All-Pro team intermittently as the season goes on to keep track of who is peaking early or breaking late and who is lurking just below elite status. I forced myself to split some hairs and write out first and second teams for your perusal.
As a reminder: This is not a real ballot. Nobody is winning or losing awards off this. If I did this after Week 8 or after Week 10, it would likely look a little different; we’re still dealing with small samples in the NFL season. Don’t yell at me.
If there are some surprising inclusions or omissions for you, cool. Here are some notes.
Cornerback logjam: There were four players I heavily considered for the second-team cornerback spots: Jacob Parrish, Nohl Williams, Deonte Banks and Denzel Ward. The first three are all breakout players. Parrish and Williams are second-year standouts, and Banks is a former first-rounder blossoming under a new coaching staff. The play of Ward is the most stable of the four, as he has been near-elite for many seasons now. If you made me guess which of these four players maintains their high caliber of play down the back half of the season, I’d guess Ward.
But this isn’t an official ballot, and I wanted to get some shine on younger and lesser-known players, so I split the hairs and picked Parrish and Williams. Parrish is the sixth-most targeted cornerback in the league, per NFL Next Gen Stats (53), and he has produced on the ball ridiculously (14 passes defensed, two interceptions) despite his lack of ideal height and length. Williams is a suffocating press-coverage presence who has ratcheted down on the penalties (1.5% penalty rate on coverage snaps in 2026, down from 3.4% in 2025) and improved as a tackler in space.
Four Bengals on offense: Joe Burrow and the unreal wide receiver duo join Amarius Mims, the third-year right tackle who has consolidated his truly elite physical tools into dominant play, on this list. And not a moment too soon; we needed a new Lane Johnson and got one. The only other team with multiple All-Pros on offense is the Seahawks with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Quenton Nelson, who played one game for Seattle before having a “minor procedure” on his knee, sidelining him for a few weeks.
Throw in Dexter Lawrence II at defensive tackle, and you have five All-Pros on the Bengals’ roster. Cornerback DJ Turner II and safety Bryan Cook would have been in third-team contention at their positions.
Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs and Kenneth Walker III: I had no idea how to pick two running backs from this trio, who are the three leading rushers through nine weeks. No matter whom I chose to leave off this list, I hated how it looked. The Chiefs’ fanbase has every right to call me an idiot for not having Walker as an All-Pro running back after his stellar season.
That’s it. Nothing else interesting to say here. There are three elite running backs and two spots. Please forgive me.
0:45
Kenneth Walker III alleviates workload concerns with huge performance
Some injured players: I had Ravens receiver Zay Flowers on here at first and then bumped him for Ja’Marr Chase, and that wasn’t a very hard decision once I watched Chase’s All-22 tape against the Falcons in Madrid. Filthy. Flowers missed a little bit of time to start the season, and his raw production has slowed with QB Lamar Jackson out — but down-to-down, Flowers is still playing at his career best. Speaking of Jackson, he’d be ousting Trevor Lawrence from the QB2 spot and potentially Burrow from the QB1 spot if he had stayed on the field.
Also at receiver: 49ers receiver Mike Evans (Achilles tendinitis). Really, really tough to leave him off. He just plays fewer snaps than the other guys because of his age, and that matters. If he comes back from the Achilles injury and finishes the season strong, I bet he makes my second team by year’s end.
Rams edge rusher Myles Garrett obviously didn’t make it with only two games played, but if he keeps playing as he did against the Commanders in Week 9, he’ll get on this list in short order. His teammate, Trent McDuffie, has missed three games, but the film is good enough to get him on this list, as is the case for fellow cornerback Pat Surtain II.
Second-team nickel: This was really hard to figure out this year. It has not been a great season for nickel defenders. Typical All-Pro qualifiers such as Cooper DeJean (Eagles) and Jalen Pitre (Texans) are experiencing down seasons. Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) has moved to primarily play the outside. Though Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) and Nick Emmanwori (Seattle) are more accurately overhang players (i.e., nickel defenders) than they are true safeties, that’s not really how All-Pro voting works.
As such, I gave it to Upton Stout (49ers) because I love the way he plays. His coverage metrics aren’t outstanding and never will be — he’s too small — but he’s fast, physical, smart and he has a nose for the football. Dru Phillips (Giants) and Javon Bullard (Packers) were also considerations. Here’s what I know for sure, though: Ja’Quan McMillian is the best slot player in the league.
Tight end: I thought about it for two seconds. Don’t care that neither Brock Bowers nor Trey McBride is a plus blocker. The two of them are superhero, un-coverable receiver wizards.
But … Sanders was good enough on Sunday that, if the coaching staff had wanted to make the move, it would be plenty defensible.
The Browns are reportedly going back to Watson in Week 10 against the Texans after he missed last week because of a concussion. In Week 9, Sanders went 19-for-31 for 297 yards, two touchdown passes and a passer rating of 114.6 against the 3-5 Saints.
But Sanders’ game was a lot shakier than the box score indicates. Despite those lofty numbers, he had a dropback success rate of 31%. That success rate is worse than every Watson start this season, save for the rain game against the Jets in Week 5.
Most of Sanders’ production came on a few plays. He picked up 60 yards on this towering catch by Denzel Boston. Watch the rookie receiver explode out of his stutter on this stutter-go route, immediately separating from cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry upfield. This ball is dramatically underthrown, but Boston works back to the football and rips it off McKinstry’s helmet. It was an elite play from a budding star receiver.
Look at Denzel Boston (top of the screen) explode out of the stutter-go. Immediate vertical separation. Premiere blend of burst+size.
And then the catch. THE CATCH. on your HEAAAAAAAADDDD. pic.twitter.com/yWzaSilmW5
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) November 9, 2026
Another 64 yards — and one of Sanders’ touchdowns — came a few drives later from his other rookie receiver, KC Concepcion. Concepcion catches ex-Brown Martin Emerson Jr. cheating to the quick outbreaking route off the motion and manufactures a clean release into a vertical route off the line of scrimmage. Sanders is late to this throw and takes a big hit in the pocket. The ball is once again severely underthrown, but Concepcion uses the throw location to break the safety’s angle and create after the catch for a touchdown.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) November 10, 2026
Those two plays comprise over 40% of Sanders’ passing yardage for the day. Neither is a good throw, though Sanders deserves credit for taking hits and getting to the right matchups on the outside. This is largely how Sanders was successful last season; he doesn’t play with the ideal sense of timing or accuracy from the pocket, but he is willing to take on contact and hang the ball up in a catchable spot. With better receivers this season, this model becomes a little more viable, as Boston and Concepcion can turn those throws into big plays more easily than Jerry Jeudy and Isaiah Bond did last year.
Yet, the Browns are seemingly giving the keys back to Watson after one Sanders week. This is a defensible decision. Down-to-down, Watson is more consistent than Sanders. Watson takes plenty of sacks and throws plenty of picks (11.8% of all dropbacks), but since the start of 2025, Sanders has him beat (12.8%). And Watson is less reliant on those big downfield throws, which are inherently volatile. Sanders needs to connect on deep shots to have a viable offense; Watson has more scrambling and underneath distribution to his game.
Let’s be very clear about something, though: Watson has not played well this season. Out of 36 qualified quarterbacks, Watson is 32nd in QBR, 31st in explosive pass rate and 34th in completion percentage over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats). But he is 21st in success rate. His best trait is keeping the offense on schedule, and coach Todd Monken trusts him more than Sanders to run the offense. The Browns had a run rate 9.4% over expectation in Week 9 — their highest number in a game since Week 1 — and were happy to keep that clock running. Cleveland snapped the ball with an average of 7.0 seconds on the play clock — its lowest number of the season by a substantial margin. This was a shorten-the-game approach for a team trying to win through its defense.
That’s a good approach in a low-scoring game with an imperfect offense on the other sideline; it’s not a referendum on Sanders. But if the Browns’ objective this season is evaluating their offense and Watson’s future while remaining somewhere near contention, then Watson keeps their offense in some semblance of balance and on schedule that we didn’t see with Sanders in just one game. It’s a defensible coaching choice.
At the same time … just play the youngster. He’s good enough to score points and win games if you run hot on a couple of deep balls — that’s more than can be said for a lot of Day 3 quarterback picks. He’s tough and understands where the ball is supposed to go. Continued play could help speed up his internal clock and develop him into a reliable backup.
The Sanders/Watson quarterback decision is a little like those fourth-down decisions where the analytics model doesn’t produce a clear lean to punting the ball or going for the fourth down. I can see both sides of the argument, and the coach’s discernment must split the difference. Most coaches will always default to the veteran who executes more predictably than the young backup with high peaks and low valleys, so it’s accordingly unsurprising that Watson has returned to the starting lineup without much deliberation. This is one that could have gone either way.
I think … Drew Lock would be a good bridge quarterback next year for multiple teams
I’d look at the Falcons, Vikings, Jets (new offense pending), Dolphins (camp competition with Malik Willis), Cardinals (great scheme fit) and Browns.
Have you seen this Lock film? I was never a big Lock guy — not when he was coming out of Missouri, not when he was starting for the Broncos. But this looks to be an improved player who has sanded down some rough edges to his game and also better learned how to win as a spot starter. Lock is trusting his eyes and feet, in timing with the route, better than I can ever remember him doing. Look at some of these throws!
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) November 10, 2026
The way Lock is playing is extremely reminiscent of Mac Jones‘ performance for the 49ers in 2025 in relief of Brock Purdy. The overall offensive health remained high to the point that there was manufactured QB controversy and immediate trade buzz for Jones’ services once he returned to the bench. The 2026 Seahawks offense isn’t as good as the 2025 49ers offense for a multitude of reasons. But through nine weeks, it has been as good — if not better — with Lock under center compared with when Sam Darnold is in there.
This looks fine until we add one key advanced metric: percent of snaps played against the Cardinals defense. Lock has taken 56 of his 80 dropbacks (70%) this season against a Cardinals defense that ranks 32nd in opponent EPA per dropback and 30th in points per drive allowed. Lock’s schedule has been disproportionately soft. Whenever we talk ourselves into backup quarterbacks, a soft run of opponents is often the culprit.
Another soft opponent awaits. Darnold has been ruled out for Week 10, and though Lock is nursing an oblique injury, it sounds as if his early prognosis for Sunday against the Raiders is promising. The Raiders have allowed 30-plus points in six consecutive weeks. They are 30th in EPA per dropback allowed and 32nd in points per drive allowed. Seattle’s backfield is finally healthy with the return of Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price to health. The Seahawks will probably move the ball well this week, take their Week 11 bye and reinstall Darnold as the starter in Week 12 against the 49ers in what might be a season-defining game.
If all we have to run on are those four Lock games — against the Patriots, two starts against the Cardinals and whatever he does against the Raiders — then we’ll have to trust our eyes’ ability to adjust for the opponent. Lock clearly looks like 2025 Mac Jones to me, but we haven’t seen Jones try to start somewhere else yet, so we lack a frame of reference for the sustainability of that rehabilitation. Does Lock look like 2024 Darnold with the Vikings? That’s a bridge too far for me now.
Still, there are fewer than 32 good starting quarterbacks in the league, and the 2027 draft, which bore much summer buzz for the strength of its quarterback class, looks less fruitful than expected. Oregon’s Dante Moore is likely out for the season because of a concussion and wasn’t playing too well before the injury. Ohio State’s Julian Sayin and UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava have also suffered injuries. Texas’ Arch Manning has not had the resounding breakout many expected.
In a Kyle Shanahan-inspired system that asks a golden-armed pocket passer to just grip it and rip it into middle-of-the-field windows, Lock feels eminently playable. I love his fit with the Falcons, as he could bring much of what Michael Penix Jr. has this season but with better mobility and better accuracy from unsure throwing platforms. He obviously fits well in Mike LaFleur’s Cardinals offense, as that’s a branch right off the Sean McVay tree. And because the Cardinals have seen him play well twice, they might overrate his film in free agency. I can’t imagine the Vikings going for another bridge quarterback, but if they did, Lock makes a ton of sense.
0:56
The Seahawks can count on Drew Lock
My guess is that Lock signs a two-year deal with a ton of guarantees in Year 1 and basically a team option in Year 2 — a number low enough that the team might keep him as a backup or camp competition if he’s middling, while also allowing for a restructure and/or extension if he excels as a starter. When Gardner Minshew II signed such a deal with the Raiders in 2024, his $12.5 million average annual value was worth roughly 5% of the cap ceiling. Assuming the cap is about $327 million in 2027, that would be a two-year, $32.5 million deal ($16.3 million per year) with guarantees in Year 1.
For a potential starter in front of a Day 2 rookie … you could do a lot worse. Lock will turn 30 this season, but he’s aging fine and has good tools. I don’t think he’ll ever execute the full Darnold rehabilitation from prove-it deal to Super Bowl champion. But the Geno Smith arc into a solid starter with splashy peaks for the next few years? That’s well within the cards.
I think … Fred Warner is the best football player
This is usually where I’d have a bunch of stats to back up my argument. I don’t have any this time.
I mean, I do. Warner is tied for the league lead in forced fumbles with five, which puts him (and Jets edge rusher David Bailey) on pace to tie the NFL single-season record of 10. Warner is fourth among all linebackers in run stop rate; that’s the percentage of his tackles against the run that are positive EPA plays for the defense.
But any stats-based argument for “Best Football Player” will quickly bend down the path of player-level value, and a linebacker will never beat a quarterback (let alone a receiver, cornerback or defensive tackle) on that long road. Some positions on the field impact winning more than others. It’s a simple reality.
Instead, I will ask you to do something archaic and foreign: trust someone who is writing on the internet. We don’t do this much anymore, and understandably so. As your options for NFL coverage have multiplied a hundredfold over the past decade — as you’ve been treated to more accessible beat writer coverage than ever, a plethora of team-specific podcasts and national shows — it has become easy to hand-select the coverage you feel serves you and your team best. Such a claim that “Fred Warner is the best football player” might invite a Bills fan reading this to bristle and grumble. “Josh Allen is the best player in the league, and this guy doesn’t know his head from a hole in the ground.” Some Seattle readers might remind me, with a few choice words, that Jaxon Smith-Njigba could break the single-season receiving-yards record this year, and I invite them to do so.
I won’t claim that I have microscopically examined every snap of every player, somehow managed to strip it of all context and positional value while leaving the remaining quality of play untouched, and successfully weighed each player against the other. But I have watched a lot of football — it is my job, and I try to do it well. What Warner does, I see no other linebacker doing. What he does consistently — week after week — I rarely see any other linebacker do even in flashes. I don’t think there is anyone better at his job on the field than Warner.
I can show you some plays if you like. Here’s Warner Polamalu-leaping over the Raiders’ offensive line to bury a QB sneak for a tackle for loss. The 49ers intercepted a pass in the end zone two plays later. It’s a transformative individual play from Warner.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) November 10, 2026
With Warner as the linchpin of their back seven, the 49ers are, once again, nearly impossible to throw against over the middle. In modern passing attacks, that chunk 10 to 20 yards downfield and between the numbers is the most important slice of the field. Only 6.8% of the pass attempts faced by the 49ers have been thrown into the intermediate middle — that is easily the lowest rate in the league. In 2024, it was 9.3% (29th). In 2023, it was 8.4% (30th). In 2025, it hit 9.9%, but Warner missed the back half of the season because of an injury.
But I said I wouldn’t do stats. Instead, I have Warner tracking a nearly tackled Brock Bowers for 5 yards, fist clenched, waiting to strike. When he does, it lands true, and Warner creates another transformative play.
The @49ers defense force the fumble and take it right back!
📺: FOX/FOX One pic.twitter.com/Lvxi8fU6Zc
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 8, 2026
The 49ers had more defensive injuries than just Warner last season, and again, I won’t claim I’m perfectly capable of discerning the exact percentage of their defensive collapse that was due to his absence relative to others. But it was a harrowing watch. A collapsed arch without its keystone.
The all-attack fronts run by defensive line coach Kris Kocurek for the past decade don’t work without a supernatural problem-solver at the second level. The undersized fly-around secondary doesn’t make enough stops without a 6-foot-3 windmill in the center of it all. Warner is superlative at everything his position demands of him — tackling, communication, playmaking, play recognition, blitzing, stopping power, intensity, beating blocks, addressing the catch point, relating in coverage, etc. I think he’s the best player in the league, and every time the 49ers have a good day on defense — which, through eight games, has been about seven times this season — he is at the heart of it.
Do what you want with this information. If I could make one recommendation: watch and appreciate Fred Warner the next time he’s on your screen. The game is a little different now, but that’s what watching Luke Kuechly was like a decade ago. Older 49ers fans might wag their fingers at me, but this is what watching Patrick Willis was like even further back. First-ballot Hall of Famer on the field. Appreciate it.
I think … the Vikings have to trade for a QB
I did not think the Vikings would trade for a quarterback after appearing on “Monday Night Football” one day before the trade deadline. I thought it would be too desperate, too flighty. After so much upheaval at quarterback over the past few seasons — Kirk Cousins, Nick Mullens, Joshua Dobbs, Sam Darnold, J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, Max Brosmer, Kyler Murray and … am I forgetting anyone? Oh, Jaren Hall — I thought the Vikings would commit to building around Murray and their elite defense.
Who knows? Maybe they still are. Murray’s hamstring injury sounded a bit like a soft benching, but if the Vikings had any inkling that Wentz would struggle the way he did Monday, they wouldn’t have considered sitting Murray. Wentz was as bad as I’ve seen a veteran quarterback look in the Vikings’ 23-6 loss to the Bills. Wentz ended the day 8-for-25 for 81 passing yards and two interceptions. He threw a dreadful underthrown seam interception to a linebacker on the Vikings’ side of the 50 and had another underthrown pick to a zone-dropping linebacker. He was so inaccurate that it looked accidental when he hit a receiver.
1:00
Josh Allen, Bills outlast Vikings 23-6 on MNF
This was as embarrassing a showing as I can remember for an offense. The backup quarterback was in, yes — but if coach Kevin O’Connell has been known for anything during his time in Minnesota, it has been his ability to win with backup quarterbacks (and heck, even imperfect starters). The Bills entered the game with the 27th-ranked defense by success rate and by EPA per dropback allowed.
Before the Vikings’ garbage-time drive with Brosmer at quarterback, the Vikings’ offense had 126 total yards (3.3 yards per play), 46 of which came on the drive to end the first half. The other 80 spanned 10 drives. That’s an average of 8.0 yards per drive.
The good news for the Vikings is that the offense is way better with Murray. Their 4.7 yards per play in Murray’s starts this season isn’t good. But it’s surely better than the 3.5 without him.
The problem is that it’s really hard to embarrass yourself that badly on national television and stay patient. If new GM Nolan Teasley has gotten close to acquiring the Jets’ Geno Smith, the Raiders’ Kirk Cousins, the Colts’ Daniel Jones (my personal bet) or the 49ers’ Mac Jones, it will be extremely challenging not to hop back on the phone and sweeten the pot.
And it isn’t just the embarrassment. How do you look the players on defense in the eye — a defense that clearly began to lose steam and heart in the fourth quarter — and earnestly tell them that the quarterback position is sufficient? You risk losing the defensive players’ ravenous investment in the season to this point. If a Daniel Jones trade costs an additional Day 3 pick, I’m willing to take the risk.
Minnesota’s season is not guttered because the team had a terrible day against the Bills. The Bills are very good. And Minnesota’s season won’t be saved if it acquires a quarterback — the Vikings have serious rushing game and pass protection problems no matter who is back there. But losses such as Monday’s force movement, especially with the deadline so close.
I was 15% “Vikings to trade for a QB” before kickoff. I was at 55% as the clock expired.
Four things I might think
I might think … the Rams will be picking No. 13 again. The Rams’ 2026 first-round pick, QB Ty Simpson, has been a healthy scratch this season while the team’s depth is decimated. Of course, the injuries — such as to star wideout Puka Nacua (knee, toe), who is likely headed to IR — are hard to anticipate, and Matthew Stafford could have just as easily been another injured star in the Rams’ long and grueling season. But after the Simpson pick, I’ll never forget how much of the Rams’ PR push was “we’ll not be drafting this high again for a while.” Meanwhile, the Rams would be picking No. 18 as of now … if they had a first-round pick.
I might think … the Dolphins are turning a corner. Miami has been quite competitive against back-to-back playoff-caliber opponents (Patriots and Lions). The pass rush is starting to wake up, with contributions from rotational players (Josh Uche and Zeek Biggers), and the linebacker duo (Jordyn Brooks and Jacob Rodriguez) is good for two or three splash plays a game. Rookie corner Chris Johnson has been quietly strong on an otherwise shaky secondary. The young O-line is showing promise. I’m beginning to buy what coach Jeff Hafley is building in Miami.
I might think … the Patriots’ defense is totally fine. The Patriots’ defense got creamed by Jordan Love, Matthew Golden and Christian Watson on Sunday. I watched every snap of it live, then every snap of it again on the film. The Legion of Boom would have given up 30 to Love and his receivers this week. A Monsters of the Midway/Purple People Eaters fusion dance was forcing one punt max. Sometimes, a quarterback goes flamethrower mode. The Patriots’ group will bounce back.
I might think … the Cardinals will have the first pick. Arizona has three wins, and the Chargers are winless. But oh my heavens, the Cardinals are hurt. Wideout Michael Wilson (neck) is now out for the year, and QB Gardner Minshew II (right UCL) likely is, too. If rookie Carson Beck is throwing to rookie wide receiver Reggie Virgil and handing off to Tyler Allgeier for the rest of the season, Arizona might not win another game. And if the Chargers don’t trade anyone before the deadline … they might get to three wins.
