The MLB offseason has officially started! As free agency begins, it’s time for our annual ranking of the top 50 free agents in the class and predicting how much money each player will get.
The story of this market is threefold: Tarik Skubal is the clear top free agent, with a strong chance to break some pitcher contract records. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is weaker than usual, and the Dec. 1 end of the current CBA deal looms. Before the last CBA expired, there was a flurry of activity or largely above-expectations deals. So do teams mirror that behavior? And does the lesser talent base affect that? I have my projected spending (about $2.65 billion in guarantees) down about 12.5% from last winter’s actual spending (a little over $3 billion) due to less high-end talent.
Here is a quick look at what else you need to know for these rankings and projections.
Free agents are ranked by the size of their projected guaranteed contracts plus the posting fee, not the quality of the player. I explain in the blurb when I’m projecting a contract that’s not the biggest guarantee they will be offered, normally if the player had a down season and wants to hit the market next winter on better terms. The contract projections are a mix of my opinions and those of agents and executives, but the goal is to predict what will happen, not decide what each player is worth.
The four projected candidates from Japan’s NPB and South Korea’s KBO have already been posted as their 45-day window will be open past the extremely likely Dec. 1 lockout, so there isn’t any guessing about when or if they will be posted as there normally is at this juncture of the offseason.
One other term to know is the qualifying offer (QO): Teams can offer an eligible free agent a one-year, $23.15 million deal, and if they turn it down and sign with another team, the original team gets compensation. If a player gets a QO and turns it down, it normally negatively affects their market, so I’ve noted it for players below.
For the players who landed big league deals last winter, I projected 9% more in guarantees than they got, but that was driven more by those players signing for 6% fewer guaranteed years than I projected, with a number of higher-end free agents doing a version of what Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette ultimately did, taking AAV instead of years.
Now, it’s time for our rankings!
2026 team: Los Angeles Dodgers
2027 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract/QO: eight years, $352 million (44 AAV), not eligible for QO
As the playoffs began, I polled 27 industry insiders about Skubal’s contract and got an average projection of eight years, $355 million (44.6 AAV), with 59% of projections landing just above the all-time pitcher guaranteed money record of $325 million (by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, over 12 years) and the big, round number of $400 million. The all-time pitcher-only AAV record is $43.3 million, set by Max Scherzer, is the other mark to beat. Seventy-eight percent of the panel thought Skubal would sign before the very likely Dec. 1 lockout.
That means the smart money is a pretty quick process that ends with a contract guarantee between $300 million and $400 million and beats the Scherzer AAV mark. Over the years, I’ve also found that the total guarantee for the top player on the market tends to beat the average of these panel projections and is usually a notch higher than I think they will be, and that is how I landed at just short of $400 million; a bit over wouldn’t surprise me.
My read on the market from further talks with industry people is that it’s about a two-thirds chance the guarantee will land in the $325-400 million area, and a slightly higher chance it’s a high-AAV shorter deal (such as three years, $150 million with two opt-outs) than over $400 million; call it 68%, 20%, and 12%, respectively.
I ended up a bit below the panel average as a slight hedge toward the lower guarantee outcome. Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette from last winter’s class don’t have that much in common with Skubal, and people think Skubal will go for the biggest guarantee, but it’s hard to ignore that teams seem more interested than ever in these shorter deals with elite talents.
Skubal won’t win a third consecutive American League Cy Young this year, both because he was traded between leagues and because of a midseason elbow procedure that affected his innings total this year. He was basically as good on a per-inning basis this year as the past two seasons, but he missed five starts in 2026. On the flip side, some teams are wary of offering a record-breaking deal to Skubal because of his history of arm issues: Tommy John surgery in 2016 while in college, a 2022 surgery on the flexor tendon in his throwing elbow and a 2026 procedure to remove a loose elbow particle. Add in that he’s turning 30 years old in November and a number of teams just won’t offer a retail price on a long deal to any pitcher with those risk factors.
As covered in that panel piece, the usual suspects are believed to be at the front of the line for Skubal: The Dodgers and Mets are the primary bidders, the Tigers are monitoring for a discount, the Yankees are thinking about it (and then trading from their pitching stockpile if they land Skubal), and the Angels, White Sox, and Padres are the sleepers with ownership changes behind the interest.
2. Teruaki Sato, 3B
2026 team: Hanshin (NPB)
2027 Opening Day age: 28
Projected contract/QO: five years, $115 million (23 AAV), not eligible for QO
You’ll hear Sato compared to Munetaka Murakami because both are left-handed-hitting sluggers who are also mediocre defensive third basemen with some contact limitations. The general consensus is Murakami’s raw power is an 80 and Sato’s is a 70 on the 20-80 scale, so a notch lower, but still enough to have 30-plus-homer potential in the States.
Sato also has had some throwing issues (both accuracy and inconsistent strength, though it’s a 55-grade arm at times), likely pushing him to a corner-outfield spot, but first base is also an option. He should clear the four years Kazuma Okamoto got last year, and most think Sato will also clear $20 million AAV. Sato’s market is helped by his similar profile to Murakami and Okamoto, who both had success in their rookie seasons.
The main question is whether the weaker position player class means that he can get to six years and/or $25 million in AAV; I have him just missing both, but wouldn’t rule out him reaching both. This contract would mean the signing team sends $19.125 million in posting fees to Hanshin, making a full outplay of just over $134 million. My guess is the upper range for Sato is the full outlay of Kyle Schwarber’s $150 million deal from last winter; Schwarber is a very proven player and a similar type, even though he hit the market for his age-33 season compared with Sato before his age-28 season.
2026 team: Tampa Bay Rays
2027 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract/QO: four years, $96 million (24 AAV), not eligible for QO
Peralta was traded from the Brewers to the Mets last winter and had a tough half-season in New York, with a 4.99 ERA fueled by increases in walk and home run rates. His peripherals improved after a deadline deal to Tampa Bay, putting up a 3.25 ERA in 10 regular-season starts and a 2.95 ERA in five postseason appearances. His peripherals were better, but only incrementally so and with a lower strikeout rate with the Rays; the big change was throwing more changeups and fewer sliders.
Peralta is showing some signs of age, and he’s not that big, but he has a long track record of midrotation performance and 14 playoff appearances. I think he’ll float to the top of a group of flawed hurlers trying to secure the second-highest pitcher guarantee in this free agent class.
2026 team: Seattle Mariners
2027 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract/QO: four years, $90 million (22.5 AAV), received QO
Arozarena burst onto the national stage in the 2020 playoffs, hitting 10 homers in 20 postseason games for the Rays, fewer than 100 games into his big league career at that point. He has put up 20.0 WAR over six seasons since that iconic run, and his 5.5 WAR season in 2026 was a career year across the board. He well outpaced his xwOBA and career norms, but he has also had six straight seasons of at least 20 homers and 20 steals, so he has always been an offensive threat.
He’ll be 32 in February and should soon begin declining offensively, putting pressure on what his offensive projection will look like going forward. I have him and the next player essentially tied here, but they’re going for the same corner outfield, multiyear market money; I’ll be fascinated to see how the market reacts to them.
2026 team: Chicago Cubs
2027 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract/QO: four years, $90 million (22.5 AAV), received QO
Suzuki came over from Japan’s NPB for the 2022 season on a five-year, $85 million deal and posted 15.6 WAR, returning roughly $125 million in value to the Cubs, per FanGraphs. He is in line for another multiyear deal after a career year (.270 average, 26 homers, 4.5 WAR), but that price will be limited a bit by his corner outfield profile, age and him outperforming his underlying contact metrics. He has a high floor and is a strong bet to be a good starter for most or all of his next deal.
Curiously, Suzuki’s defensive runs hovered around average for four seasons, then spiked to plus-9 runs this year, joining Luis Arraez and Brandon Lowe as free agents coming off dramatic defensive improvements well into their careers. All of these look real and have metrics supporting them (Suzuki’s was spread across balls hit in front of him and his throwing arm), but it’s hard to imagine it’ll hold for all of those players’ next multiyear deals.
2026 team: San Diego Padres
2027 Opening Day age: 28
Projected contract/QO: four years, $88 million (22 AAV), received QO
Morejon was a high-profile international signee and high-ranking prospect who had a slow start to his big league career, eventually finding his role with a breakout bullpen performance in 2024. He now has a sparkling three-year span of relief performance, hitting the market heading into his age-28 season. Here’s a head-to-head comparison between Morejon and the player who got the second-biggest reliever contract of all time when it was signed, Josh Hader’s five-year, $95 million deal with the Astros before the 2024 season.
I’m hedging a bit because Morejon’s overall case is a bit stronger, but Hader’s real edge (and the recipient of the biggest reliever contract of all time: Edwin Diaz at five years, $102 million) is that saves total. There is something to pitching in the ninth inning, but how much will the engaged bidders for Morejon reduce their offers due to that lack of ninth-inning experience? I would not be shocked if Morejon got five years and beat Diaz’s number.
7. Kaima Taira, RHP
2026 team: Seibu (NPB)
2027 Opening Day age: 27
Projected contract/QO: five years, $72.5 million (14.5 AAV), not eligible for QO
The sales pitch for Taira is a little tough at first glance: a 5-foot-8 right-handed starter who has eclipsed 60 innings in a season only twice in his career and has never surpassed 150 innings.
From another perspective, Taira has what the sharper pitching organizations seek, with enormous extension, a lower arm slot, short in stature (but with strength), and four-seam ride combining to make a really good fastball shape, which averages 94-97 mph and hits 99-100 mph at times. That’s a potentially dominating pitch, as his command is starter quality.
Taira got more rest between starts in Japan than the normal big league starting schedule allows, so a team could expand to a six-man rotation to accommodate him, or expect him to lose a little velocity on shorter rest, and probably not expect a full 32-start season in his first year.
Managing innings with rest or a variety of roles (maybe the bullpen for the postseason and late regular season?) because Taira was only a reliever in 2025 gives a creative team options, and that uncertainty of role will lower the price a bit.
The Red Sox, Nationals and Cubs all covet starters with velocity and big extension, and rivals think they at least have to investigate; I expect lots of interest around $50 million guaranteed and think there will be enough teams motivated to go higher to push to a fifth year. His posting fee for this contract would be $12.75 million, putting the full value at a little over $85 million.
8. Brandon Lowe, 2B
2026 team: Pittsburgh Pirates
2027 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract/QO: four years, $80 million (20 AAV), received QO
Entering this season, Lowe had been seen primarily as a hit-first, fringy defensive second baseman with durability questions. He approached career highs this year (35 home runs, 121 wRC+) and was durable (played 150 games), and his defensive runs at second base spiked (minus-10 to plus-12 in one season), almost entirely due to his range, even though his sprint speed was flat.
A loud 4.9 WAR season in a walk year is an oasis for teams in a weak position player class, but a long-term deal makes evaluators pause for all the reasons previously mentioned: will he stay healthy, keep hitting this well and continue to defend like this as he turns 33 in July? Lots of teams will have interest at high AAVs on short-term deals, but I think there will be some nibbles on a fourth year.
2026 team: San Diego Padres
2027 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract/QO: three years, $79.5 million (26.5 AAV), not eligible for QO
King opted out after the first year of his three-year, $75 million deal from last winter. He’s a year older and went from 73â…“ innings in 2025 to 185 innings in 2026 with a bit more fastball velocity, slightly worse strikeout and walk numbers, and slightly better ERA.
I think teams will be working off of last winter’s deal, with slight adjustments, plus the loss of a QO being attached, so I’ll project something a little bit above last year’s deal, effectively adding a year to last year’s contract.
I wouldn’t be shocked if a pitching-development-focused/pitch-design-savvy team comes in at four years and pushes to $100-plus million, thinking a potential bulk-inning starter might have untapped bat-missing potential, now with fewer durability questions and no QO attached.
2026 team: Baltimore Orioles
2027 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract/QO: four years, $76 million (19 AAV), received QO
Rogers is the classic example (there’s at least one every winter) of the high-dollar figure surprising fans because the pitcher doesn’t throw that hard or strike out that many batters, but teams always pay a premium for a solid midrotation starter who does a bit of both and will post bulk innings.
His velocity was up to 93.8 mph on average in 2026, and he hit a career high with 169â…” innings. Two bulk-inning lefties came to mind with similar cases — Eduardo Rodriguez (four years, $80 million in 2025 for a 31-year-old) and Ranger Suarez (five years, $130 million last winter for a 30-year-old) — and a floor of right-hander Taijuan Walker’s deal (four years, $72 million in 2023 for a 30-year-old). Rogers is the youngest of this group, is left-handed, and feels a bit better than Walker, right in the area of Rodriguez. I think Rogers gets less than $100 million, but not by that much.
2026 team: New York Yankees
2027 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract/QO: three years, $60 million (20 AAV), received QO
Bednar has the best splitter in baseball by run value and the fifth-most saves over the past five seasons with 143. He also sits at 95-97 mph with an above-average fastball, often at the top of the strike zone, showing the main qualities teams want in a closer.
Because he’s 32 years old, I’m thinking it’s either a three- or four-year deal and very likely comes with a QO attached. He has a slightly better case than Devin Williams, who landed a three-year, $51 million deal with deferrals last winter, so I have Bednar a notch above that.
12. Luis Arraez, 2B
2026 team: Philadelphia Phillies
2027 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract/QO: three years, $54 million (18 AAV), not eligible for QO
We’re now up to the third player who enjoyed a dramatic defensive improvement hitting the free agent market (joining Seiya Suzuki and Brandon Lowe). Arraez was minus-9 runs at first base in 2025 and was plus-10 runs at second base in 2026. This sort of improvement is so dramatic that you can’t see it from casually watching him, but diagnosing why it matters going forward is the key for this exercise. Most evaluators I spoke with think he’ll gently decline in the coming years, but that’s still a fundamentally different player than he was last winter, and it’s unclear if his ultimate deal will have more skepticism priced in than the consensus opinion.
Arraez’s offense is a known entity — top-of-the-scale contact rate, five-to-10 homers per year, limited walk rate — which, on the whole, using wRC+, has been above average every year of his career. He’s still 29 years old until April and now is a high-floor player with notably more ceiling, likely landing a three- or even four-year deal for something like $15-20 million per year. Some teams might be skeptical of his defensive improvement and/or not prioritizing this extreme type of hitter, but I think there will be plenty of demand.
2026 team: Milwaukee Brewers
2027 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract/QO: three years, $52.5 million (17.5 AAV), received QO
Bauers had a career WAR of -0.4 entering this season, then put up 3.6 WAR in 2026, and it wasn’t a fluke, only slightly overperforming his underlying metrics. He’s now 31 years old but played near a replacement level for so long before free agency that he is now putting the Brewers in a qualifying offer conflict.
Proving he can do it again and taking a one-year deal for just over $23 million feels fair, but Bauers might prefer a multiyear deal to get the biggest guarantee from this perfectly timed breakout into a weak free agent hitter class. A longer deal would also bring down the AAV to a number the Brewers could justify for their payroll level. The Brewers offered Bauers the QO and I lean toward him declining and hitting the open market, but it’s totally defensible for him to take the QO and look for a big multi-year deal next winter.
2026 team: Minnesota Twins
2027 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract/QO: three years, $51 million (17 AAV), received QO
Jeffers is an average defender with a slightly below-average arm and well-worse-than-average caught-stealing rate (third-worst throwing catcher by run value in baseball), a skill in more demand now than ever. His arm strength and exchange are both fine, so there’s a shot for some improvement with better accuracy.
That and the general track record/durability of how catchers age are the main questions here, as Jeffers has been the sixth-best offensive catcher over the past four seasons. I lean toward him getting a three-year deal but a four-year deal is possible.
2026 team: Chicago Cubs
2027 Opening Day age: 36
Projected contract/QO: three years, $51 million (17 AAV), not eligible for QO
Gausman is coming off a five-year, $110 million deal that was a home run for the Jays: Gausman returned over $167 million in value over the life of the deal, per FanGraphs, before he was dealt to the Cubs at the deadline.
His stuff and strikeout ability have only slightly regressed since that last deal, and he’s third in innings pitched over the past five seasons, so there’s still a lot to like. I think he can get a three-year deal in the $15-20 million per-year range.
2026 team: Atlanta Braves
2027 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract/QO: three years, $49.5 million (16.5 AAV), not eligible for QO
I closely covered Mahle’s spiking splitter usage in the playoffs for the Braves, putting up the top two games of splitter usage in the playoffs (Statcast era), with Gausman taking up most of the other spots just behind him. This trend started after the Braves traded for him at the deadline, with his usage going from 25% before the trade to 39% afterward, then shooting up more in the postseason. Mahle also posted his highest innings total since 2021, throwing 149 innings in the regular season.
Some teams might see an opportunity to land a midrotation starter who can post a sub-4.00 ERA with a newly found strikeout pitch and won’t require a nine-figure deal. I’ll buy that a three-year deal is there for Mahle when a reliever-to-starter conversion project (Clay Holmes) got a three-year, $38 million deal a few years ago at the same age Mahle is now. A four-year deal wouldn’t shock me, but there isn’t quite the innings history to think that’s likely.
2026 team: Chicago Cubs
2027 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract/QO: three years, $48 million (16 AAV), did not receive QO
Happ had a notable, but smaller defensive improvement than the three players mentioned above (Lowe, Arraez and Chicago corner-outfield mate Suzuki), going from zero to plus-6 runs in left field in 2026.
At the plate, Happ had a gentle but measurable decline, with his strikeout rate and batting average reaching career worsts as his xwOBA also tied a career worst, despite a solid overall 2.6 WAR. I’m expecting a two- or three-year deal for an eight-figure AAV.
2026 team: New York Yankees
2027 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract/QO: two years, $46 million (23 AAV), did not receive QO
Chisholm has been inconsistent and frustrating to some, but he has also put up 3.5 to 4.3 WAR figures during the past three seasons, even as his batting average dipped to .231 this year. His WAR totals are because his baserunning (by run value) is top 10 in the league, and his defensive contributions (position and quality) are top 20 in the league. Throw in a bit of ball-in-play luck and an offensive regression, and it still adds up to a clearly above-average every-day player per WAR.
Extending the qualifying offer (a one-year, $23.15 million deal) would have seemed easy on paper, but it’s unclear how much enthusiasm the Yankees have for Chisholm, and I’m also not sure how much other teams will be pounding the table, as baserunning-and-defensive-heavy WAR totals often don’t get paid in free agency, and on top of that, his xwOBA was a career worst.
I think a make-good deal to reenter the market on a better note next winter is best for all parties, but Chisholm has done enough to get a two-year contract with an opt-out as protection in case he has another tough year; two seasons at the qualifying offer total each year feels about right.
The Yankees opted against offering the QO, which helps Chisholm Jr.’s market particularly for a short-term deal (teams don’t want to give up a pick for a short deal), and signals the Yankees weren’t too keen on bringing him back.
2026 team: San Diego Padres
2027 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract/QO: three years, $45 million (15 AAV), not eligible for QO
The Padres turning down what amounted to a two-year, $32 million club option a few days ago lit up my texts as people were trying to understand why San Diego didn’t see that as a positive expected-value decision. I had then and still have him projected for more guaranteed money on a similar term; there’s usually one or two situations similar to this each offseason where an option decision doesn’t make sense or the player gets more than the option the team rejected.
Pivetta was very durable for years, until a right elbow flexor strain sidelined him for most of this year. It’s possible the Padres wanted to rip up this deal, then offer something close to it that has protections for the team based on his durability, but that’s still unclear, and some other teams might be willing to jump in for a pitcher who looked pretty good late in the season in his return. I’ll guess there’s a three-year deal out there, but there’s also probably something similar to the deal San Diego declined the option on, too.
2026 team: Boston Red Sox
2027 Opening Day age: 37
Projected contract/QO: two years, $42 million (21 AAV), not eligible for QO
Gray has continued to be effective even as his fastball velocity creeps lower and he reaches his late-30s. Gray has continued to post, topping 165 innings for the past four years in a row. He’s now a reliable starter, throwing 55% breaking stuff and mixing six pitches with above-average control. He should get a two-year deal for a strong AAV.
2026 team: Chicago Cubs
2027 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract/QO: two years, $40 million (20 AAV), not eligible for QO
Imanaga is younger than Gray, also posts similar innings totals, has above-average control and is left-handed. I have him getting a similar deal to Gray because Imanaga works up in the zone with his 90-93 mph heater, giving up lots of fly balls (third most in baseball at 45%) and lots of home runs (second most in baseball with 35). That means he’s not a fit for certain teams, and this sort of pitcher can often age very quickly when his velo slips another tick and hitters pounce even more. I wouldn’t rule out a three-year deal, but I think two is more likely.
2026 team: Pittsburgh Pirates
2027 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: three years, $36 million (12 AAV)
Soto has a fastball and a breaking ball — the variations can run together a bit, so separating them is tough — and his fastball has plus velocity but lacks bat-missing shape, while his breaking stuff, aimed at the low, glove-side corner of the zone, is very effective. His shorter breaker goes toward the back foot of right-handed hitters, so his splits were pretty flat this season. I think there’s a path here for a surprising three-year deal due to a somewhat unexpected move into a closer role.
23. Clay Holmes, RHSP
2026 team: Chicago Cubs
2027 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: two years, $35 million (17.5 AAV)
Holmes converted to starting in 2025 and made 31 starts that year, but he had only 18 this season because he suffered a broken fibula after being hit by a comebacker in May. His ground ball rate jumped to 61% this year, tops among starters — and by a good margin. He profiles as a strong third or fourth starter who can eat innings and fits best on teams with good infield defense, if he allows that many balls in play. Given his age, I think it’ll be a two-year deal, but a three-year contract wouldn’t shock me.
2026 team: Cleveland Guardians
2027 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: two years, $30 million (15 AAV)
Griffin signed a one-year, $5.5 million deal last winter in his return from three years in Japan and was excellent with the Washington Nationals (3.06 ERA, 4.14 xERA), but was less good after a deadline move to the Guardians (5.19 ERA, 4.95 xERA). He’s relatively young and threw 172â…” innings in 2026 with No. 4 starter-level performance, so I think Griffin should land a solid multiyear deal, but there isn’t as much upside as his first-half ERA might suggest.
2026 team: Seattle Mariners
2027 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: two years, $28 million (14 AAV)
Ward could be added on a smart buy-low offer, as his underlying stats aren’t that different from 2025 to 2026, but his power output (36 homers to seven homers) and WAR (3.1 to 1.0) both tumbled in his walk year. Under the hood, his bat speed was down a bit, and his swing was a bit flatter, with some suggesting that his timing was off a bit. This seems fixable, but even if it isn’t, some positive regression/better luck should pay for this contract anyway; it could be for one or two years.
2026 team: Detroit Tigers
2027 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: two years, $26 million (13 AAV)
Flaherty seemed on the verge of a major breakout and/or huge long-term deal at various points over the past few seasons, but he has had consecutive down years since a solid 2024 campaign. His walk rate, flyball rate and ERA estimators are up each of the past two years, and he missed about two months this past season because of forearm flexor inflammation. I could see a one-year, make-good deal or a two-year contract for Flaherty.
2026 team: Los Angeles Dodgers
2027 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: two years, $25 million (12.5 AAV)
Vesia peppers the top of the zone with his 90-94 mph fastball that has huge ride, created by his high arm slot, the most vertical arm slot in baseball. That unique combination of traits leads to odd angles and more whiffs than you’d expect, as well as pop-ups, but also a number of fly balls and walks. It all adds up to a setup-type reliever who should land a two- or even three-year deal.
2026 team: Arizona Diamondbacks
2027 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: two years, $24 million (12 AAV)
Soroka had a huge age-21 season in 2019, posting 4.0 WAR and a 51% ground ball rate and looking like he would blossom into a perennial second/third starter. Then the injuries hit, and he wasn’t relevant again until 2025, but injuries limited him to 22 combined appearances in 2025 and 2026. The traits are still there (but the ground ball rate is now below average), and he’s still in his 20s for all of next season, so I could see a one-year prove-it deal or a team taking a gamble that the bulk and quality will show up now and offer him a two-year contract. I think there will be interest in both concepts, so this is mostly Soroka’s call.
2026 team: Arizona Diamondbacks
2027 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: two years, $22 million (11 AAV)
Loaisiga had pretty mixed seasons from 2023 to 2025 then broke out in 2026 due to improved command, a slight tweak to his pitch mix and a bit more zip on his fastball. He throws mostly 97-99 mph sinkers to right-handed hitters, helping him rack up tons of ground balls. His changeup is his bread-and-butter against lefties, leaning more on the four-seam as his preferred fastball to complement it. The combination of above-average control and high ground ball rates while also limiting hard contact means Loaisiga doesn’t need to strike out many batters to have setup man performances.
30. Hiromi Itoh, RHSP
2026 team: Hokkaido (NPB)
2027 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: two years, $18 million (9 AAV)
Itoh has been posted, and this deal would come with an additional $3.6 million for Hokkaido. His raw stuff is around average, with above-average command, and his strikeout numbers (eight per nine innings during the past three seasons) back that up. He has put up innings, posting 170-plus three years in a row, so big league teams should be intrigued enough to get a reliable back-end hurler; I think he’ll get two or three years at $8 million to $13 million per year.
2026 team: Los Angeles Dodgers
2027 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: two years, $18 million (9 AAV)
Bubic had a big 2025, putting up 3.4 WAR over 20 starts before a rotator cuff strain ended his season early. He was more ordinary in 2026 as a starter before missing more time because of elbow and shoulder issues, leading to a deadline deal to the Dodgers, who used him exclusively out of the bullpen. Given the durability limitations, Bubic is likely a reliever, but one who can probably fit in a few different roles; I could see a one- or two-year deal depending on how confident teams are about his health outlook. I think he will thrive in a full-time relief role, and I’m betting I’m not the only one who thinks so.
2026 team: Tampa Bay Rays
2027 Opening Day age: 36
Projected contract: one year, $17.5 million
Martinez has above-average command of mostly average stuff, headlined by a sinker, cutter and changeup. He signed a one-year, $13 million deal last winter, but he threw slightly more innings and performed a bit better this season, as often happens when pitchers join the Rays. He likely gets a smallish raise on that deal this winter.
2026 team: Chicago Cubs
2027 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: two years, $17 million (8.5 AAV)
Kelly is a serviceable starting catcher, a league-average defender and a roughly league-average offensive threat. He should get a two-year deal at a bit more than his previous contract: two years, $11.5 million.
2026 team: Atlanta Braves
2027 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: two years, $16 million (8 AAV)
Dubon split time between left field, shortstop, center field, third base and second base, grading out around average at each spot. He has consistently been just below average at the plate, making an above-average rate of contact with passable power. His durability and versatility are selling points; he’s exactly the kind of player contending teams like to have, able to fill in any role as injuries and slumps create them. I would expect a multiyear deal.
2026 team: Houston Astros
2027 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: one year, $15 million
Varsho had a down year at the wrong time, with his power drying up and batting average falling to .221, while his underlying stats showed it wasn’t unlucky outcomes. His defensive metrics have also fallen quite a bit during the past two years (from plus-15 runs in 2024 to zero in 2026), so this situation smells like a one-year pillow deal to bounce back and hopefully hit the market again for the multiyear contract he was expecting a few years ago. Varsho feels like a fit for the lower-payroll teams that excel at development, such as the Brewers or Rays.
2026 team: San Diego Padres
2027 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: one year, $15 million
Mize looked like he turned the corner in the first half, posting 2.9 WAR in 16 starts for the Tigers, already a career-best performance for the former No. 1 pick who appeared to be hitting his upside. Similar to Foster Griffin, Mize was traded at the deadline and was notably worse at his next stop, but more worrisome than Griffin. Mize’s fastball velo was down 1.1 mph, his walk and strikeout rates were much worse, and his ERA nearly tripled. It was only 10 starts, but now the breakout has to be questioned. He could land a one- or two-year deal, but given the contract Mize appeared in line for before the trade, I think he’ll take the one-year offer and hopefully hit the market in a better position next winter.
2026 team: New York Yankees
2027 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: one year, $14 million
Grisham accepted the QO last winter, when I thought he’d get enough multiyear interest to decline it and hit the open market. He had a bad season in 2026, with offensive regression everywhere but strikeout rate and his center field defense graded as below average for the second year in a row. But he was quite unlucky relative to his underlying contact quality stats, so I could see a team eyeing Grisham as a bounce-back candidate in a mostly corner-outfield role on a one-year deal.
2026 team: Atlanta Braves
2027 Opening Day age: 37
Projected contract: one year, $14 million
Iglesias signed a one-year, $16 million deal last winter and was mostly the same guy this season, but now he’s a year older, so I’m expecting a slight discount. He’s still a proven ninth-inning reliever, but we’re getting closer to him not being a contending team’s top reliever.
2026 team: Milwaukee Brewers
2027 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: one year, $14 million
After injuries limited him for years, May has cleared 130 innings two years in a row, including solid peripherals, but has had some trouble getting that to show up in his ERA. The raw stuff, spin rates and extension are all there, and May’s appearances on Pitching Ninja also show that upside to casual fans. So there will be a bit of a premium paid, as he just turned 29 and hasn’t had his breakout season yet. I could see him getting the $12.5 million he got last season, or a bit more on a one-year deal, and he’ll likely get two-year offers, too.
2026 team: San Diego Padres
2027 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: one year, $13 million
France is a tough evaluation this winter. He had a huge 2026, hitting .295 with 21 homers, racking up a 141 wRC+, putting his performance in the batter’s box between Pete Alonso and Bryce Harper among first basemen. As a right-handed-hitting first baseman who’s now 32, his profile will hurt him in free agency, but you also need to consider that he was among the luckiest hitters in baseball relative to his expected statistics.
This was a conversation point a month ago, when an executive asked me what I thought France would get on the market due to this unusual combination of factors. We went back and forth about a one-year deal from $8 million to $15 million, or possibly even a two-year deal in that range. I landed on the higher end of the range, but a one-year deal as a middle ground.
2026 team: Detroit Tigers
2027 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: one year, $12.5 million
Torres has been dancing on either side of the core-player vs. nice-to-have-player line for years and now has landed on the latter side. He’s a fringy defensive second baseman with limited baserunning value who can get on base, but his power regressed a bit more last season. If you think this was based more on battling injuries than a loss of power in his age-29 season, this could be a nice buy-low opportunity.
2026 team: SD
2027 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: one year, $12.5 million
Buehler looked set up for a nine-figure deal after the 2021 season, when he put up his second 5-WAR campaign, this time across 33 starts and 207â…” innings. Since then, there have been some injuries, and his velo slipped a bit, causing his strikeout rate to fall off a lot while his walk rate crept up, too. He stabilized that last season, making 32 starts and posting a 4.62 ERA that was a bit unlucky. He’s now a bulk-innings option who will likely get to choose between one- and two-year offers.
2026 team: Philadelphia Phillies
2027 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: one year, $12 million
Bohm has had an up-and-down career at the plate and defensively at third base. He was a much better hitter in the second half this year (118 wRC+ vs. 71 wRC+ in the first half), and in his career, he has done his damage against left-handed pitching (130 wRC+ vs. 88 wRC+ against righties). His defensive acumen at third base during the past three years has gone from plus-one runs to minus-three runs to minus-six runs in 2026, mostly tied to his range. You could read that as the wrong side of a first-base platoon, or just a streaky hitter who can fill a couple of different roles in your lineup. I think a change of scenery might help, and Bohm is another candidate for a buy-low deal for smart and/or lower-payroll clubs.
2026 team: Arizona Diamondbacks
2027 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: one year, $12 million
Gallen got multiyear interest last offseason, but after turning down the QO at the beginning of the winter, he settled for a version of it with deferrals. He had a really rough season, with a cratering strikeout rate and ballooning ERA, to the point where a change of scenery and going back to the drawing board on a one-year pillow contract is likely his best move. Gallen is yet another potential target for low-payroll, development-first clubs to get an All-Star-level talent for a smaller one-year deal.
2026 team: Chicago Cubs
2027 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: one year, $11 million
Peterson is another bulk-innings starter with some upside who should get one- and two-year offers. His strikeout rate has improved during the past two years, but his ERA has been rising into the mid-4.00s as he has reached his 30s. The innings and 50% ground ball rate from a lefty are plenty to get an eight-figure AAV on a shorter-term deal.
2026 team: Seattle Mariners
2027 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: one year, $11 million
Crawford’s range regressed over the past two years, taking him from plus-one defensive runs in 2024 to minus-10 in 2026, and he was moved off shortstop in deference to rookie Colt Emerson. Crawford is still a solid lefty hitter with a roughly league-average offensive outlook, so he should get one- and two-year interest at roughly $10 million per year.
2026 team: Baltimore Orioles
2027 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: one year, $10.5 million
Robert had a frustrating 2026 derailed by injuries, an unfortunately familiar occurrence after a breakout 2023 season, when he posted 5.0 WAR and 38 home runs. He just turned 29, is still a fine center fielder, and his underlying stats suggest an above-average offensive threat, but it’s hard to expect all of that to come together with regular playing time next season. Robert has eclipsed 110 games only once in his career (2023). A one-year deal with a new club makes sense.
2026 team: Houston Astros
2027 Opening Day age: 22
Projected contract: one year, $10.5 million
Abreu was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2025 (2.28 ERA, 2.2 WAR) then was worse in almost every way in 2026: His fastball velocity was down 1.5 mph, his home run rate more than doubled and he posted -0.3 WAR, as his 3.73 ERA was much better than his peripherals and ERA estimators. This is a likely pillow deal for one year to reestablish himself for a multiyear deal next winter, but I could also see a team locked in on getting Abreu back to his 2025 self, pushing for a two-year deal.
2026 team: Cincinnati Reds
2027 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: one year, $10.5 million
Stephenson’s past two years have been good but not great after a 3.3 WAR season in 2024 seemed to indicate he could move into the upper echelon of catchers. Stephenson’s framing has regressed during the past two years (down to minus-10 runs in 2026), but he’s solid in other aspects, and framing can be taught more easily than other catching skills. He has been hovering around league average in the batter’s box, so any team believing it can improve his framing would make Stephenson a potential candidate for a buy-low deal, and maybe even garner him some two-year interest.
2026 team: Chicago Cubs
2027 Opening Day age: 36
Projected contract: one year, $10 million
Boyd gently regressed in 2026, but his 2025 performance (3.5 WAR, 3.21 ERA) was strong enough that there’s still plenty of room to see him as a bulk-innings starter for 2027. There doesn’t seem to be as high a ceiling as Boyd appeared to have a year ago, but making 20-plus starts with some track record has a lot of value for teams looking to fill innings in the regular season.
Other Free Agents of note, by position
Catchers: Gary Sanchez, Elias Diaz, Travis d’Arnaud, Jonah Heim, Jake Rogers, James McCann, Christian Vazquez, Austin Hedges, Kyle Higashioka, Luke Maile
First Base/DH: Joc Pederson, Ryan Mountcastle, Paul Goldschmidt, Josh Bell, Eugenio Suarez, Nathaniel Lowe, Rhys Hoskins
Infielders: Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Edmundo Sosa, Ildemaro Vargas, Si-Hwan Roh (KBO; posted), Ha-Seong Kim, Luis Rengifo, Jonathan India, Enrique Hernandez, Nicky Lopez, Yoan Moncada, Jorge Mateo, Luis Urias, Jeff McNeil
Outfielders: Cedric Mullins, Adolis Garcia, George Springer, Randal Grichuk, Gavin Lux, Lane Thomas, Victor Robles, Tyrone Taylor, Michael Conforto, Ramon Laureano, Austin Hays, Tommy Pham
Starting pitchers: Chris Bassitt, Cal Quantrill, Robbie Ray, Brady Singer, Kyle Freeland, Patrick Sandoval, Shane Bieber, Brandon Woodruff, Jeffrey Springs, Aaron Civale, Martin Perez, Chris Paddack (KBO), Colin Rea, Kona Takahashi (NPB), Tomoyuki Sugano, Lucas Giolito, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carter Stewart (NPB), Anderson Espinoza (NPB), Eric Lauer, Patrick Corbin, Griffin Canning, Forrest Whitley (NPB), Sean Reynolds (NPB)
Relievers: Evan Phillips, Sean Newcomb, Emilio Pagan, A.J. Puk, Steven Okert, Tyler Alexander, JoJo Romero, Kenley Jansen, Kevin Ginkel, Antonio Senzatela, Jose Alvarado, Brock Burke, Paul Blackburn, Pete Fairbanks, Jordan Romano, A.J. Minter, Jason Adam, Andres Machado (NPB), Brooks Raley, Andrew Kittredge, Kirby Yates, Ryan Yarbrough, Trevor Richards, Jakob Junis, Mark Leiter Jr., Darwinzon Hernandez (NPB), Taylor Clarke, Brent Suter, Taylor Hearn (NPB), Hunter Harvey, Taylor Rogers
