NFL Week 10 predictions: Upsets, fantasy sleepers, stat lines, TD scorers, more

Week 10 of the 2026 NFL season is underway after the Commanders beat the Giants on Thursday night. But what will happen in the remaining 13 games? We have 15 predictions from our NFL experts.

First, betting analyst Pamela Maldonado picks two underdogs who could win outright. Then, analytics writer Seth Walder projects stat lines for three players. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody suggests three sleepers, and analyst Matt Bowen predicts three players who will find the end zone. Finally, analyst Ben Solak lays out four wild-card predictions.

Will the Steelers upset the Bengals? How many yards will Trey McBride have against the Rams? Could Jadarian Price score his first NFL touchdown? And will Raiders coach Klint Kubiak dial up a trick play in Fernando Mendoza‘s first start?

Let’s make 15 big predictions for the Sunday and Monday action.

Jump to:
Upset picks | Projected stat lines
Fantasy sleepers, surprises
TD scorers | Other predictions

Maldonado predicts two upsets

Carolina Panthers +2.5 (+110 moneyline) at New Orleans Saints

Quarterback Bryce Young is getting the ball out more quickly recently without sacrificing chances downfield, which could be helpful against New Orleans’ pass rush. The Saints are allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt, giving Tetairoa McMillan opportunities to make big plays.

New Orleans hasn’t gotten much from its running game, and it will be without starting center Erik McCoy (biceps injury) on Sunday. That puts more stress on quarterback Tyler Shough, enabling Carolina to keep this close and potentially win outright.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 (+150 moneyline) at Cincinnati Bengals

Running back Jaylen Warren gives Pittsburgh a way to control this game. He already piled up 176 total yards in Pittsburgh’s Week 3 win over Cincinnati, and the Bengals keep giving up long runs this season.

Cincinnati also struggles to defend the middle of the field, where Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has strong options in WR Germie Bernard and TE Darnell Washington. Bengals QB Joe Burrow will get his points, but Pittsburgh can answer without asking Rodgers to force deep throws.

Walder predicts three stat lines

Malik Washington, WR, Miami Dolphins: 11 targets, 7 receptions, 78 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

Every year I look for the players who are excelling in ESPN’s open score — which measures a receiver’s ability to get open on all routes, regardless of target — but struggling in catch score. That’s because open score is much more stable than catch score and correlates better with future production.

Washington fits this profile exactly with an 82 open score (tied with Garrett Wilson for second best) but just a 38 catch score (below average). So there is a decent chance Washington’s production will increase, and it could happen as early as this Sunday — even with backup quarterback Kyle McCord throwing him the ball. Washington should line up against Colts nickel cornerback Justin Walley, who missed the past two games with a knee injury and is allowing 1.8 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That’s well above the 1.1 average.

Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals: 13 targets, 9 receptions, 99 receiving yards

If I were quarterback Carson Beck, I would make a point of throwing to McBride when in doubt during my NFL debut. But that would be especially true now that Michael Wilson is out for the season with a neck injury. And even further because 23% of targets against the Rams’ defense have been to tight ends, the sixth-highest rate in the league.

As long as cornerback Trent McDuffie isn’t on McBride, he ought to be the priority target on most plays. If the Cardinals fall behind, McBride should be in line for quite a bit of garbage-time production to come close to the 100-yard mark.

Justin Eboigbe, DT, Los Angeles Chargers: 1.0 sacks, 4 pressures, 19% pass rush win rate

Eboigbe recorded 6.0 sacks a year ago but has just 0.5 this season. Plus, he has a well-below-average pass rush win rate. So why am I forecasting a big game for Eboigbe on Monday? Because of who he’ll line up against. Ravens right guard John Simpson has a sixth-percentile pass block win rate at the position, while center Cam Jurgens is literally last in pass block win rate at his position since he started playing for the Ravens in Week 7.

play

Ian Rapoport details Broncos’ trade for Daiyan Henley falling through

Moody predicts three fantasy sleepers

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (35.4% rostered in ESPN leagues)

Rodgers has averaged just 8.9 fantasy points over his past two games, with Pittsburgh leaning heavily on its running game. That could change Sunday night against a Bengals offense that ranks second in points per game, which could force the Steelers to throw more to keep pace.

Rodgers threw for 292 yards and three touchdown passes against Cincinnati in Week 3, finishing with 22.6 fantasy points. The Bengals have also allowed 17.8 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season.

Corey Kiner, RB, New England Patriots (31.9%)

Kiner could lead the Patriots’ backfield against the Lions this week, with Rhamondre Stevenson listed as questionable (knee tendon issue) and TreVeyon Henderson is out. Kiner rushed for 55 yards and a touchdown on eight carries against the Packers last week; he leads New England with 4.9 yards per carry this season.

Detroit has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, so it’s a tough matchup. But Kiner could see 14-plus rushing attempts, while Lan Larison handles more of the work on passing downs.

Tutu Atwell, WR, Los Angeles Rams (8.1%)

With Puka Nacua and Davante Adams both sidelined, Atwell could see a lot more targets against the Cardinals. He has drawn nine targets over his past two games and played more snaps than any other healthy Rams receiver against the Commanders.

Arizona has allowed 32.2 fantasy points per game to wide receivers and the second-most passing touchdowns in the league. Atwell’s production has been inconsistent, but his ability to make plays downfield and the opportunity for more targets make him worth considering in deeper leagues.

play

Myles Garrett details range of emotions when he was sidelined with injury

Bowen predicts three touchdown scorers

Jadarian Price, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Price had 78 total yards in the Week 9 win over the Cardinals, and he looked explosive in the pass game with four receptions for 54 yards. He will continue to split touches with Zach Charbonnet on Sunday versus the Raiders, but I see him scoring his first pro touchdown here — off a screen pass.

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers

Take the target volume with Kittle, plus the prime matchup versus the Dallas defense. Kittle has seen at least seven targets in three straight games, and coach Kyle Shanahan can scheme up his tight end to press the seams against the Cowboys’ split-safety coverages.

I’d expect multiple red zone targets for Kittle on Sunday. And the 49ers are the best in the league at turning those targets into touchdowns (84.6% red zone touchdown percentage this season).

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers

Hubbard has at least one rushing score in three of his past five games, and he is seeing consistent volume with 20 or more touches in four contests. Meanwhile, the Saints are giving up 133.9 rushing yards per game (fourth most) and have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns this season (tied for second most). With steady volume and red zone touches, Hubbard could easily find the end zone Sunday.

Solak makes four more predictions

Rams WR CJ Daniels will score a touchdown

The Rams’ undrafted free agent receiver is in line for his first NFL action now that Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Jordan Whittington are all on IR. Daniels critically has something that projected starting receivers Konata Mumpfield and Tutu Atwell lack: size. At 6-foot-2, 205 pounds, don’t be surprised if Daniels sees third-down and red zone usage against the Cardinals.

There will be four combined missed field goals in Chiefs-Falcons

The Chiefs are rolling with Harrison Butker for another week despite his 12-for-19 start on field goal attempts — he’s 6-for-13 on anything 40-plus yards. Meanwhile, the Falcons signed Jake Moody off the Ravens’ practice squad following the release of Nick Folk (13-for-18). I’m rooting for some fourth-and-longs at the 37-yard line that force long field goal tries.

The Raiders will score on a trick play

I think Las Vegas coach Klint Kubiak will have some good schematic tricks up his sleeve for the Seahawks’ defense after watching it all of last season as Seattle’s offensive coordinator. Is there a particular defender he knows will be too aggressive against a double pass? Or lose contain on a reverse?

In quarterback Fernando Mendoza‘s first start, the Raiders need to manufacture explosive gains with creative playcalling. And well-timed red zone trickery could do just that.

Bills QB Josh Allen and Jets QB Geno Smith will combine for 600 passing yards

The Jets are 2-7 and held pat at the trade deadline. Coach Aaron Glenn knows he needs emphatic wins down the stretch of the 2026 season to hold onto his job, and that’s especially true in a division where he’s 0-8 since he took over.

I think the Jets can come out with a strong effort at home Sunday against a Buffalo secondary that is still gettable in coverage after enjoying a couple of easy offenses (Vikings and Ravens). The potential for a shootout is high in this one.