The 2026 MLB division series matchups are starting to take shape, as the Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees and San Diego Padres all advanced out of the wild-card round Wednesday. The Atlanta Braves completed the division series field with a Game 3 win over the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday.
What have we learned about each team so far? What does each remaining club need to do to move on to the League Championship Series? Which players could be their teams’ October difference-makers? And which favorites should be on upset watch in the round ahead?
Our ESPN MLB experts are here to break it all down as every division series matchup is set.
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Upset forecast (Dodgers win 62% of simulations): The Dodgers ranked only three spots higher than Atlanta by run differential, but the gap is bigger than the order of teams suggests as L.A. held an 85-run edge in that category. The Dodgers have a whopping 13-win advantage by my ratings of each team’s playoff roster.
Atlanta arguably has a slight edge in the bullpen and that would certainly be key if the Braves can play from ahead, or at least keep things close. But make no mistake: If Atlanta is able to topple the Dodgers, it would very much be an upset.
Dodgers concern level: Not much. They know the Braves are a quality opponent with high-level veterans who have won before in the postseason. The Dodgers also know themselves as a two-time defending champion. In terms of health and trajectory, Los Angeles is exactly where it hoped to be as the playoffs opened. This can be a competitive series to be sure but there’s little reason for the Dodgers to see the Braves as a particularly dire threat to their three-peat hopes. — Bradford Doolittle
Atlanta Braves
What impressed you most about the Braves in the wild-card round?
Timely hitting. The lineup has been better in some recent seasons, but this year’s edition still features largely the same core and the players are battle-tested. Multiple players and manager Walt Weiss said somewhat matter-of-factly after Game 1 that this team thrives in the clutch and games against the Phillies tend to go down to the wire with a late, decisive moment. The Braves made the most of that skillset and experience in this series and hope to do it again in the NLDS.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Dodgers?
The Dodgers’ run prevention will pose a big test. They have an above-average team defense and the lowest runs allowed in baseball this season. Some of their arms were in and out of the staff throughout the season but all of their key starters except for Shohei Ohtani are healthy and they obviously added Tarik Skubal later in the season. The Dodgers aren’t invincible, but they are best in class at shutting down offenses, giving the Braves precious few opportunities to break through with a key hit.
Which one player must deliver for Atlanta to pull off the upset?
Chris Sale. The Braves aren’t deep in reliable starters, as Sale is their only one at the moment, with some mixed feelings about how much Tyler Mahle can match up with some of the best arms in the sport — though Mahle’s Game 2 outing against Philadelphia was an encouraging sign.
If Sale doesn’t perform well — and likely twice in the NLDS — the Braves will need some decent-to-solid starters to outpitch the best rotation in the sport: quite a steep climb. — Kiley McDaniel
Los Angeles Dodgers
What carried the Dodgers to an October bye?
Their depth. Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz, two stars who represented the Dodgers’ latest splurge in free agency, had miserable first seasons in L.A. Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow again sat out significant time, as did Will Smith. Mookie Betts got off to a terrible start. Other obstacles presented themselves. And yet it didn’t matter. The Dodgers won 100 games, claimed their 13th division title in 14 years and ultimately cruised to a first-round bye.
Just as important: Over the past couple of weeks of the regular season, they checked off some important boxes regarding the health of some of their most important players, setting themselves up for another prolonged run through October.
Why will it/won’t it continue against the Braves?
As encouraging as these past few weeks have been for the Dodgers, there are still some major questions around their roster. The most prominent: Is Shohei Ohtani healthy enough, and in a good enough rhythm, to be the type of catalyst they need him to be at the top of their lineup?
Diaz looked really good upon returning to the Dodgers, but all those appearances were in low leverage. Can they trust him in the ninth? And if not, will someone else step up, giving Dodgers manager Dave Roberts the freedom to deploy left-hander Tanner Scott earlier in games? Snell came back from a quad injury to make a tune-up start Saturday, but there are nonetheless questions about his effectiveness in the postseason.
The Dodgers might once again field the deepest, most talented team in this playoff field, but there are spots where they could be vulnerable.
Which one player must deliver to put L.A. in the NLCS?
Ohtani and Tucker will absorb a lot of the attention, but there’s another left-handed hitter who will be crucial: Freddie Freeman. The Dodgers’ veteran first baseman batted .184 with one extra-base hit in September and will continue to occupy the No. 3 or 4 spot in the lineup.
Freeman said he is past the right knee issues that kept him out of the lineup a handful of times over the regular season’s final month, but compensating for it might have prompted him to fall into bad habits. He’s hoping to adjust similarly to how he overcame ankle and rib injuries in the 2024 World Series — by getting more into his legs and implementing what he described as a “step out,” a mental cue that prevents him from “cutting” his swing by planting his front foot differently. — Alden Gonzalez
Upset forecast (Brewers win 64% of simulations): While the real-world edge that Milwaukee possesses entering this series might feel smaller than this number suggests, it’s also not that hard to explain. As well as the Padres have played over the course of the season, the Brewers have been doing that for nearly the entire campaign.
As hot as San Diego was down the stretch, in terms of team temperature, the Brewers were the hottest team in baseball when the postseason opened. As well as the Padres hit over the second half of the season, they tied with the Brewers for the second-most runs scored after the All-Star break. The home-field advantage is a real thing in this series as well because the Brewers were baseball’s best home club during the season when they led MLB in runs per home game by a wide margin.
The Padres are on a roll, but they are coming up against a team that has been rolling since the spring.
Brewers concern level: Pretty high, but in a healthy way. While Milwaukee has every reason to feel good about where it is as its postseason begins, the formula for the hot Padres to beat them is not hard to pinpoint. A couple of home runs from their hot veteran hitters, grabbing a lead that Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon & Co. can protect.
The Brewers can play with anyone, but there are no gimmes for them in the weeks to come if they are going to finally grab that first National League pennant. Milwaukee is a solid favorite, but this is going to be a great series. — Doolittle
San Diego Padres
What impressed you most about the Padres in the wild-card round?
The way they feed off the energy in their home ballpark and how dangerous the Padres can be when their stars perform like they’re supposed to. When Michael King is dotting his fastball, when Fernando Tatis Jr. is playing with his hair on fire, when Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill are swinging it well, when Morejon and Miller are lingering in the bullpen, and when 40,000-plus San Diegans are going berserk, the Padres look unbeatable. There’s a reason no team wanted to face them in the playoffs, particularly in a short series. And there’s a reason the Padres were a major league-best 21-5 at home in August and September.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Brewers?
For starters, the Padres will no longer have home-field advantage. Also, it’s a lot easier to produce against Matthew Boyd and a compromised Kevin Gausman than it is to do so against Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson, who make a compelling case for the best one-two punch in the playoffs. If they really needed to, the Padres could have leaned heavily on Morejon and Miller in the back end of their bullpen to shorten games in a best-of-three wild-card series. That becomes a lot harder to do as series extend. The Brewers had the best record in baseball for a reason. They’re good, they’re deep and they execute to perfection. The Padres will have to match that.
Which one player must deliver for San Diego to keep its run going?
Xander Bogaerts. The offense is carried by Tatis, Machado, Merrill and Ty France, but if the Padres are going to beat a team as deep and well-rounded as the Brewers, they will need production from the bottom half of their lineup. Bogaerts, their $280 million shortstop, is crucial to that. He had another subpar year offensively but found his groove in the final month of the regular season, slashing .315/.425/.479. And he stepped up in their playoff opener, lining a home run and going 2-for-4 in a thorough offensive onslaught. He then delivered another multihit performance in Game 2. The Padres will need more of that. — Alden Gonzalez
Milwaukee Brewers
What carried the Brewers to an October bye?
It starts with Misiorowski, the pitching star of the 2026 season. He led the majors in ERA (1.80), strikeouts (252) and lowest batting average allowed (.157). That final mark set the record for a starting pitcher. But in leading the majors in wins for the second year in a row with a franchise record 103 victories, the Brewers do everything well.
While critics point to their lack of power, they finished second in the majors in runs and were one of five teams with three qualified regulars with an OPS over .800 (Jake Bauers, Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang). The bullpen was outstanding as well, ranking third in ERA, second in OPS allowed and second in win probability added.
Why will it/won’t it continue against the Padres?
The Brewers are the World Series favorite, according to ESPN’s panel of voters at the start of the playoffs, so it’s expected to continue. The concern is the lack of power and power plays in the postseason. Just check last year’s NLCS, when the Dodgers swept the Brewers as the Brewers hit just one home run (the Dodgers hit six). But all you have to do is hit more home runs than your opponents, and last year’s team didn’t have Misiorowski pitching at this level or the underrated Henderson (11-3, 2.47 ERA). And the Brewers do everything else you need to do on offense: They led the majors in average, were second in walks, fifth in stolen bases (seven players stole at least 10 bases) and first in OPS with runners in scoring position.
Which one player must deliver to put Milwaukee in the NLCS?
Yes, those three guys in the middle of the order will need to produce, but “The Miz” has to dominate like he did all season. While the bullpen is certainly deep, the rotation is a little questionable once you get past Misiorowski and Henderson. The Brewers need to win Game 1 behind their ace, otherwise they’ll need to win three out of four, and that won’t be an easy task. — David Schoenfield
Upset forecast (Yankees win 55% of simulations): This number was calculated with the assumption that Aaron Judge will be a full go for the division series round. While that remains uncertain, the number drops to roughly 52% if he’s out or reduced to a pinch-hitting role. That is to say the Yankees would be favored by the simulations either way. The Yankees held more than a five-win edge by Pythagorean record during the season. They also hold a 4.6-win edge in my postseason roster ratings.
That explains the probability, but when you look at the different roster groups, you can see how this is a match of strengths against strengths. Both teams have excellent offenses, though they go about things in a polar opposite way, strong playoff rotations and versatile, high-performing bullpens. If the Rays keep the Yankees’ power hitters in the yard, this probability probably flips.
Rays concern level: Bring it on. The Yankees might have an on-paper edge, but the Rays’ roster and the way Kevin Cash deploys it stacks up against anybody. This is the best possible matchup on the AL side in terms of roster ratings. So if you want to think of this as the real ALCS, it’s not a hard position to defend. — Doolittle
New York Yankees
What impressed you most about the Yankees in the wild-card round?
The Yankees’ young homegrown players. Cam Schlittler and Ben Rice are franchise cornerstones who have come out of nowhere to become two of the best players in baseball — and they shined in Game 1 — but New York’s ancillary draft and developed players also played their roles well.
The Yankees had four other homegrown players 27 or younger start at least one of the first two games and contribute in the wild-card round. Shortstop George Lombard Jr. — the youngest of the group at 21 years old — went 3-for-4 with two runs scored in his postseason debut in Game 1. Second baseman — and former shortstop — Anthony Volpe (25), outfielder Spencer Jones (25) and catcher Austin Wells (27) each contributed hits in the rout.
For the Yankees to make a deep October run without Judge — their best homegrown player since the Core Four era — they’ll need their young core to continue to make an impact.
Why will it/won’t it continue against the Rays?
It’ll continue because Schlittler and Rice aren’t just neat stories anymore — they’re bona fide stars — and the supporting cast will build on that wild-card experience. The Rays’ pitching staff is among the elite in baseball, but so was Boston’s. The group, playing with the heightened pressure that comes with a three-game series at Yankee Stadium, did not wither. Playing at Tropicana Field, where the Rays have one of baseball’s best home-field advantages, will be a challenge, but the younger Yankees appear ready.
Which one player must deliver for New York to pull off the upset?
Judge’s status for the series remains unclear. Even if the three-time MVP plays, expecting vintage Judge to immediately emerge is a stretch. So, Rice is the Yankees’ most important player.
He became the hitter opposing teams’ game-planned around with Judge sidelined for most of the regular season. The change coincided with his production nosediving. Rice was slashing .306/.397/.658 with 17 home runs in 54 games through May 31 — the final game Judge played before going on the injured list with a fractured rib. From there, he slashed .216/.314/.432 with 18 home runs in 78 games through the end of August. Then he caught fire again, collecting nine hits in five games before Judge returned from the injured list Sept. 8. Eight days later, Judge strained his right calf, but Rice didn’t stop hitting, going 9-for-31 with three home runs, two doubles and a 1.120 OPS over his final nine regular-season games to finish with 41 home runs and an .897 OPS.
Rice made the adjustments to fuel the Yankees’ lineup. They’ll need him to continue thriving to extend their season. — Jorge Castillo
Tampa Bay Rays
What carried the Rays to an October bye?
Remarkable consistency. They were .500 or better in every month and finished strong, going 34-19 over the final two months. Drew Rasmussen and Nick Martinez were All-Stars and the most underrated one-two combo in the majors, combining for 31 wins while ranking fourth and sixth in the AL in ERA. Trade deadline acquisition Freddy Peralta turned his season around after joining the Rays, giving them an excellent No. 3 starter with Shane McClanahan injured.
As always, the Rays play good defense, plus Junior Caminero and his 42 home runs anchor a lineup that led the majors with a .283 average with runners in scoring position.
Finally, Bryan Baker had an outstanding season as the closer, ranking fourth among all relievers in win probability added, and the bullpen as a whole was clutch all season as the Rays went 25-14 in one-run games.
Why will it/won’t it continue against the Yankees?
Defense and pitching — in a postseason that projects as a low-scoring October in the first place — will work no matter the opponent. Rasmussen isn’t a household name, but he had nine starts this season where he allowed no runs and another seven where he allowed just one. Peralta is a huge key and enters the postseason on a roll, with a 0.79 ERA over his final six starts (the Rays won all six games).
Yes, the Rays will need to get some of those big hits with runners on base, but they’ve done it all season, and they excel at small ball — leading the majors in sacrifice bunts and bunt hits — and while you can’t win exclusively scoring runs that way, it could be the difference in one game in a series.
Which one player must deliver to put Tampa Bay in the ALCS?
To that point, the Rays will need to hit home runs along the way and Caminero is obviously the best bet to do that. He’s just the second player along with Eddie Mathews with two 40-homer seasons through age 22, but he was a better all-around hitter this season than 2025, improving his OBP from .311 to .360 as he nearly doubled his walk rate. That maturity in his approach bodes well for a big postseason. — Schoenfield
Upset forecast (Guardians win 57% of simulations): Though Chicago led the AL Central for the bulk of the season, Cleveland once again looked like the class of the mediocre division by season’s end. The White Sox owned a better regular-season run differential, but the Guardians entered the postseason on one of their signature September heaters.
Both teams rely on an inordinate amount of production from rookies. As good as the White Sox’s first-year players have been, no club can match what the Guardians have gotten from Parker Messick, Chase DeLauter, Travis Bazzana and others. Cleveland was the hotter team at the end of the regular season, and this is another series where home-field advantage might matter. That’s not because the Guardians were that good at home but because the White Sox struggled so much on the road, ranking 20th in wins and run differential away from Rate Field.
Guardians concern level: Sky-high. For a team with so many young players, the Guardians are dragging a lot of historical baggage. Some of that is historical (no titles since 1948) but more of it is recent. Cleveland keeps getting into the playoffs but with each run that falls short of the World Series, the pressure mounts. Meanwhile, no team left in the playoffs is playing with as much house money as the White Sox. — Doolittle
Chicago White Sox
What impressed you most about the White Sox in the wild-card round?
The same thing that impressed me about them all season: their bullpen. It was masterful in their Game 1 victory and did enough after that to secure the series win. It’s about as close as you’ll come to a staff with every pitcher trained to pitch multiple innings every time out. Manager Will Venable has taken advantage of that all year, and it continued in the wild-card round.
Why will/won’t it continue against the Guardians?
With time to rest before the ALDS starts Saturday and then three days off within the series, there is no reason the White Sox can’t continue to lean on that pen. I might not have the same feelings if they advance to the ALCS — at some point they’ll run out of gas — but the familiarity with the Guardians will also work to their advantage. The bullpen carrying it for one more round is a real possibility for Chicago.
Which one player must deliver for Chicago to keep its run going?
It’s a tough call with so many options to choose from, but Hagen Smith has been lights-out since coming up and he is less of a known commodity than others on the staff. And with those days off in the division series, Smith could impact up to three games.
The easier answer to the question would be Miguel Vargas or even fellow reliever Grant Taylor, but after throwing three scoreless innings in Game 1 of the wild-card round, Smith is my X factor for the next one. — Rogers
Cleveland Guardians
What carried the Guardians to an October bye?
They went 9-1 down the stretch to clinch the AL Central after trailing by as many as six games in the middle of August. From Aug. 18 to the clinching game, the Guardians went 25-11 with a 3.51 ERA. That will have to be the formula in the playoffs: pitching, pitching and more of it.
Messick, who finished his rookie season with a 2.56 ERA, and Gavin Williams, who led the AL with 248 strikeouts, guided the way, while closer Cade Smith topped all relievers in win probability added while saving 41 games and fanning 107 in 74 innings.
The offense was much better in the second half, with Steven Kwan hitting .352 with a .445 OBP in the final three months, but the pitching will be the key.
Why will it/won’t it continue against the White Sox?
The Guardians will be the heavy favorite since they’re rested with their rotation lined up while the White Sox lack the pitching depth of Cleveland’s staff. Yes, the White Sox have more power — Angel Martinez led the Guardians with 18 home runs — but the Guardians did have their best power month in September, slugging .430 with 35 home runs in 25 games. Bazzana, Brayan Rocchio, DeLauter and Martinez all had good final months, so suddenly the Cleveland lineup looks playoff-worthy.
Which one player must deliver to put them in the ALCS?
It still feels like Jose Ramirez needs to offer big contributions at some point, something he hasn’t done much of in the postseason in his Hall of Fame career. He has hit .234 with just four home runs in 45 career playoff games. If we focus on more recent years, he has hit .246 with two home runs in 19 games since 2022.
He has hit for very little power since returning from a fractured left hamate bone, managing only two home runs in 53 games after coming off the IL, but Stephen Vogt has still been hitting him second in the lineup down the stretch. That’s a run-producing spot in the order and he’ll need to produce some runs. — Schoenfield
