Midterm elections 2026 live updates: Trump’s agenda and control of Congress at stake

Data center is a major flashpoint among voters across the country as the Trump administration aggressively pursues an AI buildout. That includes in Ohio, where CNBC’s Pippa Stevens reported on an explosion of local backlash to data centers and increasing scrutiny of candidates’ positions on the issue, as voters weigh a proposal to limit the size of data centers.

In Texas, as Justin Papp reported, Democrats are trying to ride their pro-regulation stance to victory in statewide races.

According to the most recent edition of the CNBC All-America Economic Survey, 63% of respondents said they would oppose an AI data center within 10 miles of their home, and only 13% are in support of one.

— Caleigh Keating

Polls showing who looks likely to win key battleground districts and which party looks set to control Congress have widely circulated in recent weeks, but even the most methodologically rigorous polls don’t always correctly predict the election winner.

Polls often contain errors that are hard to avoid, despite best efforts. According to the American Association of Public Opinion Research, the absolute average polling error in the 2024 election was 7.0 points in either direction for the House of Representatives, and 3.3 points for the Senate. Factors such as voter turnout, last-minute campaigning and changes in the president’s approval rating can produce election results that ultimately differ from polls in the weeks and months leading up to it.

— Caleigh Keating

California voters will decide on a measure that would impose a one-time 5% tax on billionaires in the state. The tax would apply to about 200 residents worth at least $1 billion as of Jan. 1, 2026, excluding real property and certain pensions and retirement accounts. Most proceeds would go toward healthcare, with the remainder set aside for education and food assistance. Backers say the tax would be a response to Trump-era funding cuts that could result in some Californians losing coverage.

Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont supports Proposition 40, as does Rep. Ro Khanna, a Democrat representing several Silicon Valley cities. Opponents include California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, along with billionaires from Alphabet’s Sergey Brin to venture capitalist Peter Thiel. Early SpaceX and Tesla investor Tim Draper voted against the measure, saying it is “unconstitutional” and “would drive businesses and jobs out of state.”

The tax requires a majority vote to pass. About 46% of likely voters said they would vote for Proposition 40 in an October poll from the Public Policy Institute of California, a non-partisan think tank. Advocates are telling voters to reject Proposition 41 and Proposition 42. Proposition 40 might not become law if either of the other two receives more “yes” votes, according to the state voter information guide. Polls close at 11 p.m. ET.

— Jordan Novet

More Democrats voted early in this election cycle than in 2024, according to a Goldman Sachs report released Tuesday. Data in Goldman’s U.S. election monitor points to a more Democratic early vote share than in the prior election, although patterns of Republicans disproportionately voting on Election Day suggest the final gap in party turnout will be smaller. Democrats have remained broadly ahead in the generic congressional ballot and in balance-of-power predictions, but many Senate races remain close, Goldman said.

For voters looking for early signals on how the night might go, results in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District, which favored Trump by 15 points in 2024, and Florida’s 14th Congressional District, which was redrawn as part of the state’s gerrymandering push, may offer a clue, the report says.

— Caleigh Keating

Investors have not yet fully priced in Democrats taking control of Congress after the midterm elections on Tuesday, so that outcome could spell bad news for Wednesday’s trading action if it were to come to fruition.

According to JPMorgan, a blue wave could weigh down the S&P 500 by about a half percent on Wednesday.

On the flip side, if Republicans are able to retain control of one or both chambers of Congress, some on Wall Street anticipate a rally for stocks in the short term.

The stock market typically moves higher in the months following the midterm elections results, though some speculate that U.S. equities might not follow that historical trend this time around given how much they’ve risen heading into the election. Year to date, the S&P 500 has risen nearly 11%.

— Sean Conlon

Trump’s tariff regime has become a defining economic policy of his second term, but the levies on friend and foe alike might come back to haunt him. Swing states with close ties to Canada, such as Maine and Michigan, are some of the most exposed to higher goods prices as a result of tariffs. Maine’s lobster industry has been hit particularly hard, CNBC’s Megan Cassella reports, with heavy duties on steel contributing to “the worst business climate for us that I’ve ever seen in 40 years,” according to one lobster trap manufacturer.

— Caleigh Keating

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez‘s team said in an Election Day memo that the New York Democrat has “proven herself” as one of the most effective voices for “America’s working class” ahead of the midterms — after which looms a decision over whether she will run for Senate or the White House.

“In the coming days and weeks, much will be discussed about the future of the Democratic Party and 2028. You may be asked whether you support her running for President or for Senate in New York or staying in the House of Representatives,” the memo released by her chief of staff says. “We’d recommend you rely on the details of this memo and answer that Rep. Ocasio-Cortez will continue to do what she’s always done: look for ways to do the most good for the most people.”

A democratic socialist first elected to the House in 2018 as a firebrand, Ocasio-Cortez has since emerged as one of the most prominent leaders and savvy operators in the Democratic Party. A potential 2028 run for the White House or the Senate seat currently held by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has long been anticipated.

Her team sought to play up her down-ballot coattails in the memo, arguing her political operation rivals that of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., who narrowly lost two presidential primaries.

“The Congresswoman has emerged as one of the most powerful endorsements in the United States and New York State specifically,” the memo says. “Candidates from rural districts and battleground seats see her as an asset for their general election campaigns.”

— Garrett Downs

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Trump’s war with Iran is a “big, big drag” on Republicans in this election, criticizing party leaders for downplaying the conflict’s impact on gasoline prices.

“Gas is higher. It hurts people, working-class people, and it’s higher because of this conflict,” DeSantis said Monday night on SiriusXM’s “Straight Shooter with Stephen A.” Republicans who refuse to acknowledge that reality are “gaslighting” voters, he said.

DeSantis, who challenged Trump for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, warned that if the conflict continues through the rest of Trump’s presidency, it could be “devastating” to his agenda and make life “very, very difficult for Republicans.”

The national average for regular gasoline stood at about $4.15 a gallon Tuesday, up from $2.98 before the war began in February, according to AAA.

— Luke Fountain

In a final campaign ad posted the morning of Election Day, Sherrod Brown, Ohio’s Democratic nominee for Senate, focused on standing up to billionaires and projected a message of “Ohio against the world.”

“We know nothing worth having is given; it must be earned. But billionaires consumed by greed and corruption take and take and take, thinking we won’t fight back,” the ad narrated alongside photos of Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg and other corporate executives.

“We’re standing up to billionaires and corporations instead of standing with them. We’re demanding a leader who takes on corruption,” the ad continued. Brown is seeking a return to the Senate after losing his seat to Sen. Bernie Moreno in 2024.

Brown is trying to defeat Sen. Jon Husted in a special election after Husted was appointed to replace Vice President J.D. Vance. The Cook Report rates the race as a “Toss Up.”

— Caleigh Keating

Around 59 million Americans are caregivers, and the affordability challenges that come with balancing their own expenses and the costs of caring for another adult are a concern for voters. According to an AARP survey of likely voters age 50 and older, respondents in 43 competitive districts said they are more likely to vote for candidates who support unpaid caregivers helping loved ones.

— Caleigh Keating

Markets may be nervous ahead of the midterm elections, but history suggests that anxiety often fades quickly. Recent CNBC analysis found that the S&P 500 gained an average of 13.7% in the year following midterm elections, with positive returns in 91% of cases.

“Once you are through it, it’s a big relief, and markets tend to do pretty well,” Ryan Detrick of Carson Group told CNBC.

A Nov. 3 Deutsche Bank note points to a similar pattern. The bank said midterm years are usually the weakest part of the four-year cycle because of political uncertainty, which eases once the election is over. “The market is buying a ‘known’ outcome,” the bank said. The usual result is divided government and gridlock, which reduces the risk of major policy changes.

Deutsche Bank looked at the S&P 500’s performance over the 12 months following every midterm vote since 1930 and found that the index rose after 22 of 24 midterms. The analysis showed that historically the broad market and most individual stocks are likely to be higher in 12 months, with both median and average gains in double digits.

“But given today’s concentration, whether the run extends to a 22nd consecutive positive post-midterm period likely depends on the performance of just a handful of stocks,” the bank said.

— Deena Zaidi

Amid rising mortgage rates and housing prices in recent months, the cost of housing has emerged as a top political issue — in particular among younger voters.

CNBC’s Diana Olick traveled last month to Allentown, Pennsylvania, where voters spoke of increasing financial barriers to homeownership. Candidates on both sides of the aisle in swing House districts in the state have pledged to make housing affordability a top priority. 

In the most recent edition of the CNBC All-America Economic Survey, 15% of respondents said they considered the cost of housing a top issue. One in five Americans who rent or own said they spend at least half of their monthly pretax income on housing, according to the CNBC and SurveyMonkey Quarterly Money Survey released last month.

— Caleigh Keating

The North Carolina State Board of Elections voted to extend voting hours in two counties following technical delays.

Polling hours were extended to 8 p.m. in Lenoir County and until 8:15 p.m. in Columbus County. “Shorter” extensions were announced in Wilson and Hertford counties. In a post on X, the state election board said statewide results would be delayed by 45 minutes due to the extensions. Polls in North Carolina were originally set to close at 7:30 p.m.

— Caleigh Keating

Former White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci said President Donald Trump is “going to get trounced” in the midterms, predicting an “intellectual civil war” in the Republican Party.

“I think the president’s going to get trounced, by the way, and I think he knows he’s going to get trounced,” Scaramucci told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday.

“The Republicans, in my mind, I think there’ll be a great intellectual civil war. The Republicans are going to have to reconcile where do they want to go.”

Scaramucci, the founder of SkyBridge Capital, was the White House communications director for 10 days during Trump’s first term in 2017.

— Caleigh Keating

Tejano music star Bobby Pulido is looking to upset Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz in Texas’ 15th Congressional District — one of a series of closely watched races in South Texas. Trump won the district by 18 percentage points in 2024, but Pulido, a Democrat, remains in striking distance. The De La Cruz- Pulido race is a “Toss Up,” according to the Cook Report.

— Justin Papp

Corporate executives have been discussing the election as they attempt to forecast what certain policies or a shift in legislative power could mean for their bottom lines.

H. Lynn Moore, CEO of Tyler Technologies, said in a call with analysts last week that midterms can create “uncertainty” or “disruption.” But Moore said the software provider can later see “a lot of opportunity” as newly elected leaders look to the company’s products to improve efficiency in the government.

On Waste Management‘s earnings call last week, President John Morris fielded a question from an analyst about what potential changes to the regulatory backdrop would mean. Morris described the inquiry as a “loaded question,” before acknowledging that the Texas-based firm could see some cost headwinds.

Analysts peppered CMS Energy CEO Garrick Rochow last week with questions about whether the election outcomes could shape demand for data centers. Rochow said he expected progress on data centers — which have become a hot-button issue amid rising concerns about their impacts on the environment and energy costs — after the election.

“Politics do not equal policy,” Rochow said last week. “Some of the spin that you see leading up to the election does not equal reality.”

— Alex Harring

Republican Sen. Darline Graham, who was appointed to fill the rest of her brother Lindsey Graham’s term after he died unexpectedly in July, is running for U.S. Senate in South Carolina against Democrat Annie Andrews. The race, in a deep-red state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998, wasn’t expected to be close. But Graham has struggled to consolidate support after a bitter GOP primary in August. And Andrews, a pediatrician, has closed the gap. The Cook Report shifted the rating from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” on Oct. 20.

— Justin Papp

Political advertisers have spent a record $11.87 billion this election cycle, according to newly released figures from media tracking firm AdImpact. Election spending usually rises from cycle to cycle, but this midterm has surpassed even the 2024 presidential election — a sign of how much money is riding on control of Congress. Spending is also up sharply from about $8.22 billion at the same point in 2022. Put another way, the $11.87 billion is enough to buy the San Francisco 49ers, at CNBC’s latest valuation, and still have $170 million left over.

— Luke Fountain

A top elections lawyer for Democratic candidates vowed to keep challenging Trump and his party, following a report that the DOJ told several Democrats they might be targets in its ongoing investigation of Alaska’s Senate race.

“No one should be surprised that President Trump’s Department of Justice is targeting me and my law firm on Election Day,” read a statement from Elias Law Group Firm Chair Marc Elias, who was among roughly 20 Democrats to be sent target letters from the DOJ, The New York Times reported Tuesday.

“This administration has repeatedly weaponized the DOJ against the President’s political enemies despite zero evidence of wrongdoing, and we are the latest targets,” Elias said in the statement shared with CNBC.

“Elias Law Group attorneys proudly count themselves among this President’s political enemies, and we are proud to represent Democratic campaigns and progressive organizations that fight back against him every single day,” he said.

Elias has represented the campaign of Alaska Democratic Senate nominee Mary Peltola, which has faced scrutiny after the Times reported that Democratic operatives recruited a man with the same name as incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan to run in the Senate election.

The DOJ said last week there is an “ongoing” criminal investigation into the alleged scheme. The department filed a lawsuit seeking to delay the certification of the Senate election should Sen. Sullivan lose, but a federal judge on Sunday dismissed it.

The DOJ did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment on the Times’ report about the target letters.

— Kevin Breuninger

The New York Board of Elections said voting machines throughout Westchester County have been unable to scan paper ballots because of an “update to the county’s election programming that occurred after the initial preparation of Election Day voting equipment.”

The board said the programming was updated because of a change that affected an election in one municipality.

“Election Day machines elsewhere in the county continued to use the original programming and therefore could not recognize and accept the ballots being used for Election Day,” the board said.

The board said it was working with Westchester election officials to fix the problem, with the immediate goal of restoring scanning capability to at least one voting machine at every polling location.

“In the meantime, voting continues throughout established emergency ballot procedures,” the board said. “Completed ballots are securely maintained under bipartisan oversight and will be scanned and counted in accordance with established procedures.”

— Dan Mangan

Republican Sen. Susan Collins’ campaign office in Biddeford, Maine, was vandalized overnight, with red paint splashed across the entrance and “BLOOD on her HANDS” scrawled on the steps. Collins is vying for her sixth term in a closely watched race today against Democrat Troy Jackson. It was the second attack on the office in two months. Vandals also targeted the building in September, and Collins said her Bangor home was egged that month.

“This is another incident in a series and the second attempt at our Biddeford office to intimidate the Senator and her staff,” Collins’ chief of staff Katie Brown told CNBC in a statement. “These tactics are disturbing, but not effective. Our staff is undeterred and on the job.”

— Luke Fountain

The North Carolina State Board of Elections is set to meet at 2 p.m. ET to discuss extending voting times in a handful of counties.

The board called an emergency session because voting was delayed in five counties. Most of the delays were due to technical issues.

If voting is extended in the affected counties, there could be a delay in the state reporting election results.

— Dan Mangan

Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek is hoping to score an upset against GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson in a former swing state that has more recently been dominated by Republicans. Iowa hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, but Trump’s tariffs and high diesel and fertilizer prices caused in part by the Iran war have hurt the state’s agriculture industry and helped put the state in play. The Cook Report rates the race a “Toss Up.”

— Justin Papp

A win for Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in the Senate race against former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers could be a boost to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. A loss could be a blow for Democrats‘ left flank, of which El-Sayed is the most prominent candidate this cycle.

— Justin Papp

With voters heading to the polls Tuesday morning, Trump took to Fox News to make a surprising policy announcement: that he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to end U.S. aid to Israel by the end of the year.

“They don’t need it,” Trump said in a phone interview on Fox & Friends, referring to the roughly $4 billion in aid the U.S. sends Israel annually.

“Why should we suffer the slings from lunatics like [Democratic Senate nominee in Michigan Abdul] El-Sayed when they don’t need it?” Trump added.

The unusually timed remarks signaled a shift for Trump, who has closely allied himself with Israel and recently endorsed Netanyahu for reelection.

But they apparently weren’t throwaway lines: The official X account for Trump’s political operation, Trump War Room, touted the policy shift following the Fox appearance.

The president’s Election Day comments came as polls show Americans souring on Israel amid the war in Iran and Tel Aviv’s military actions in Gaza, leading some commentators to wonder if the move was a last-ditch bid for votes.

“It sure looks like he’s pandering to the anti-Israel sentiment that’s developing in Congress, doesn’t it?” Fox Business’ Stuart Varney asked on air later Tuesday. “I mean, is he really trying to win some votes at the last minute with this?”

— Kevin Breuninger

Rep. Suzan DelBene told CNBC that she’s watching Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District, where Democrat Zach Dembo faces Republican Ralph Alvarado, to gauge how the night could go for Democrats.

“This is a Trump +15 district. It is absolutely in play, and it’ll be one of the first House battleground districts where polls are closing really early, at 6 p.m.,” the DCCC chair said.

— Justin Papp

Inflation reaccelerated as the election drew closer, according to the latest government data reports.

The consumer price index, a broad basket of goods and services tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, climbed 3.7% year over year in September. The index was driven higher by a surge in energy prices amid the war with Iran.

Spiking energy prices also drove the producer price index, a measure of underlying inflationary pressures, up 6.3% on the year, its sharpest 12-month gain since 2022. The gauge of wholesaler inflation rose 1.3% from August to September alone.

— Alex Harring

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash, said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday that Election Day would “be the end of the Trump era and the beginning of a government that should be working for the people.”

DelBene said she was confident Democrats would win a House majority but was “paranoid” about potential Republican attempts to undermine the election. 

“I want to make sure we’re looking out for anything they might try,” DelBene said.

— Justin Papp

Guam ousted its Republican congressional delegate, marking the first Democratic flip of the midterms, according to the U.S. territory’s unofficial election results.

Democrat Alicia Limtiaco beat incumbent GOP Del. James Moylan for the seat, which is empowered to perform many of the functions of a U.S. House representative but cannot vote on the final passage of legislation.

Limtiaco won by about 2.2 percentage points, the unofficial results show — a big swing toward Democrats from 2024, when Moylan trounced his opponent by nearly six points.

However, Republican Vicente “Tony” Ada won Guam’s election for governor, beating Democrat Therese Terlaje. Ada will succeed Democratic incumbent Lou Guerrero, who did not run for reelection.

Trump, in a Truth Social post Tuesday afternoon, congratulated Ada without mentioning Limtiaco’s victory.

“Wow, hopefully that’s an indication for things to come!” Trump wrote.

— Kevin Breuninger

The Texas Senate race features embattled Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the most expensive race of the cycle. Talarico is trying to become the first Democrat elected statewide in Texas since 1994. Paxton has been hobbled by a series of scandals, but has benefited from a massive influx of cash from Elon Musk. The Cook Report listed the race as a “toss up.”

— Justin Papp

GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is a moderate running for reelection in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District. The district voted for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris but has long eluded congressional Democratic candidates, and it could be a bellwether on Election Day. Fitzpatrick has repeatedly outperformed his party in the swing seat.

The race was originally listed as a “likely R” by the Cook Report, but Democratic nominee Bob Harvie, a former Bucks County commissioner and high school teacher, has narrowed the gap. Earlier in October, the Cook Report shifted the rating in Harvie’s favor, to “lean R.”

— Justin Papp

The first polls close starting at 6 p.m. ET, when voting ends for some races in Indiana and Kentucky, according to the Associated Press. Large waves of results could come when polls close in a number of states starting at 8 p.m. ET, but voting doesn’t end until polls close in Alaska at 1 a.m. ET.

Here is when polls begin to close in each state (all times ET):

• 6 p.m.: Indiana*, Kentucky*
• 7 p.m.: Florida*, Georgia, New Hampshire*, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
• 7:30 p.m.: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
• 8 p.m.: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Illinois, Kansas*, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan*, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, North Dakota*, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota*, Tennessee, Texas*
• 8:30 p.m.: Arkansas
• 9 p.m.: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin, Wyoming
• 10 p.m.: Idaho*, Montana, Nevada, Oregon*, Utah
• 11 p.m.: California, Washington
• 12 a.m.: Hawaii
• 1 a.m.: Alaska

* Some polls in the state will close later.

— Caleigh Keating

The Department of Justice said it is sending out approximately 1,000 election monitors who, for the first time ever, will be present at voting jurisdictions in all 50 states.

The DOJ said in a press release that it has sent election monitors to help ensure election integrity and fairness since the enactment of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. But this year’s effort is the department’s “largest monitoring effort in history,” it said.

The list of jurisdictions was revealed as the Trump administration’s efforts to influence states’ handling of their elections have already spurred multiple ongoing lawsuits. The list includes many heavily Democratic-leaning areas, including the New York City boroughs of Manhattan and Brooklyn, and DeKalb County in Georgia. It also includes the counties that are home to Minneapolis and St. Paul, which the Trump administration has targeted with an immigration crackdown that led to two U.S. citizens being killed in January.

The monitors include personnel from the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division, which is coordinating the effort, along with other areas of the department, including U.S. attorney’s offices, and observers from the Office of Personnel Management, according to the press release.

“Election integrity has been one of the top priorities for this Administration and this Division,” said Harmeet Dhillon, assistant attorney general for the Civil Rights Division, in a statement included in that release. “I am very proud we are deploying the largest monitoring effort in DOJ history, and pursuing transparency for elections in an assertive and nondiscriminatory manner.”

— Kevin Breuninger

Voters have consistently ranked high costs as a top issue of the midterms, and the latest data from gas-price tracker GasBuddy helps illustrate why.

National average gas and diesel prices are at the highest levels ever seen on an Election Day, according to Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis.

Gas is at $4.12 per gallon on average, while diesel is fetching $6.28 per gallon, De Haan said in an X post Tuesday morning.

Energy prices have sharply risen this year, following attacks on Iran that the U.S. and Israel launched in late February.

“Trump got in his own way,” De Haan recently told CNBC. “Back in December, we predicted that 2026 was going to be the cheapest year for gas since 2020. That required no effort. And obviously, it hasn’t gone that way.”

— Kevin Breuninger

A statewide win in Texas has eluded Democrats since the 1990s, but they’re hopeful the losing streak will end on Tuesday.

Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is in a tight race against GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton for a Senate seat. State Rep. Gina Hinojosa is challenging Republican incumbent Greg Abbott for governor, with Abbott favored to win.

Hinojosa and Talarico are the two best shots Democrats have had at winning statewide in Texas since Beto O’Rourke lost by less than 3 percentage points to Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018.

— Justin Papp

Despite Tuesday’s mixed picture, stocks have had a positive year. The S&P 500 has advanced by more than 10% in 2026, while the Dow and Nasdaq Composite gained about 8% and 9%, respectively.

Follow live market updates here.

— Alex Harring, Sean Conlon

Voters in Westchester County, New York, reported experiencing problems getting their paper ballots scanned at polling sites.

The Westchester County Board of Elections said it was aware of the issue, urged voters to remain in line and said paper ballots would be placed in “designated orange emergency ballot bags, which will remain secure and monitored.”

“These ballots will subsequently be counted in accordance with applicable election procedures,” the board said. “No voter should be discouraged from participating in this election because of this issue. Your voice matters. Your vote matters.”

Westchester is located to the north of New York City.

— Dan Mangan

Consumers have reported feeling increasingly pessimistic about the state of the economy over the last year. The question now is whether that discontent will affect how they vote.

The University of Michigan’s closely followed consumer sentiment index dropped about 10% in September compared with a year ago. The index fell to all-time lows earlier this year.

The Conference Board said consumer confidence hit its lowest level since 2014 in September. Confidence rebounded in October, which the Conference Board attributed in part to easing gas prices.

— Alex Harring

Democrats are competing for Senate seats in traditionally red states such as Kansas, Mississippi, South Carolina and Texas where GOP candidate quality and Trump’s low favorability have hampered Republicans.

Meanwhile, the GOP looks competitive in New Hampshire and Minnesota, where Democrats tend to dominate but are in tight races against formidable Republican opponents.

— Justin Papp

Economists and monetary policymakers have largely described today’s job market as stable but not booming, setting the backdrop for today’s elections.

The unemployment rate in September came in at 4.2%, down from 4.4% a year prior. Jobless claims in recent weeks have fallen to around their lowest since the 1960s.

Still, there are some worrying signs beneath the surface. For instance, the number of people classified as long-term unemployed — those who have been out of a job for at least 27 weeks — has surged this year. That’s a feature of what many economists have described as a “low-hire, low-fire” job market, in which companies are reluctant to both lay off staff and bring on new employees.

Average hourly earnings rose 3% in September compared with a year prior, marking the slowest 12-month increase since 2021. But consumer prices climbed 3.7% in the same period, meaning shoppers had less purchasing power compared with a year ago.

— Alex Harring

Tuesday’s elections could be a referendum on Trump, whose policies have angered voters and weighed down Republicans. Losses in the House or Senate, or both, could derail his legislative agenda as he enters his final two years in office. And a poor GOP performance would likely usher in an era of intense congressional oversight aimed at Trump, his associates and companies that have cozied up to the administration in the last two years.

— Justin Papp