The first month of the NHL season should not be ignored, dismissed or hand-waved away.
Sure, there are narratives established quickly that seem a little silly by season’s end — it turns out Vancouver’s Paul Cotter might have used up all his goals when he scored four in the first four games of the season, for example. But most of the time, what’s happening now is prologue: Six of the eight teams that eventually made the playoffs in the West last season were in playoff spots last Halloween.
Here are 10 overreactions to the happenings on and off the ice to start the 2026-27 NHL season, starting with hockey’s most electrifying player trying to do something we haven’t seen anyone but Wayne Gretzky do before.
It’s been interesting to watch the two best centers in the NHL react to their respective playoff disappointments due to injury and lingering angst from accepting Olympic silver.
Nathan MacKinnon decided to start punching people in the face. Connor McDavid decided to break Wayne Gretzky’s single-season scoring record of 215 points (1985-86) — or at least threaten to do so while potentially becoming the only player in NHL history other than Gretzky to score 200 points in a season.
McDavid had 34 points through his first TWELVE GAMES of the season. That means he outscored Alex Killorn‘s entire 82-game campaign last season (33 points) with games to spare in October.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. Look, we all want this to happen. It would be incredible for hockey, like an unexpected sequel to Alex Ovechkin breaking Gretzky’s career goals record. McDavid is a singular offensive talent in NHL history, with an alchemy of speed and agility and hands and vision and scoring ability that just hasn’t existed in a human on skates before. If anyone is going to break Gretzky’s record, it’s him. If anyone is going to get to 200 points in the modern game, it’s him.
McDavid is scoring at a 2.83 points-per-game pace. So, using back of the napkin math, that would be around 204 points added to the 34 he’s already scored, which would shatter Gretzky’s record like it dipped into liquid nitrogen.
Reasons to believe, beyond “well, it’s McDavid”: It appears that McDavid and Draisaitl are lineys. McDavid has played just 32 minutes away from Draisaitl this season. When they hired Mike Babcock as head coach — “they” as in Connor and Leon, not the Oilers — apparently one of the conditions was that these two megastars wanted to play more on the same line at even strength. While that’s not ultimately great for team depth or their postseason conditioning — McDavid has the highest average ice time of his career so far — it’s hard to argue with the statistical results for Nos. 97 and 29.
Reasons not to believe: It’s not the mid-1980s, and the highest point total we’ve had in this century is McDavid’s 153 points in 2022-23, when he played 82 games. Also … playing 82 games. McDavid did it last season, but has been over 80 games played in just three of the last five seasons. McDavid and Draisaitl haven’t both played 80 games or more in the same season since 2022-23.
Again, it would be magical for the NHL if McDavid threatens the record or even 200 points. Breaking records or smashing through stats ceilings is catnip for American sports fans. Of course, I’m a little concerned that the Asterisk Society will come after Connor for having achieved this in an 84-game season. But that would be a good problem to have.
Evan Bouchard will win the Norris Trophy
There’s a science to winning the Norris Trophy as the NHL’s best defenseman. Players usually have to be in the conversation for a season or two before they break through to win it, like when Bouchard finished fifth for the Norris in 2024 and fourth last season.
Usually, defensemen need a combination of offensive success — in the last eight full NHL seasons, seven Norris winners had at least 70 points — and defensive impact, even if it’s reputationally. There’s been cases made for Bouchard’s defensive acumen over the last couple of seasons, but the arguments have yet to crystalize nationally that he’s something more than a one-dimensional player.
So perhaps Bouchard has decided to take another road to the Norris that’s been successful for others: Offensive dominance that’s so overwhelming that his award-worthiness becomes undeniable, like when Erik Karlsson won in 2023 with 101 points and a minus-26, for example.
The verdict: SLIGHT OVERREACTION. Bouchard has 21 points in 12 games, skating to a plus-17. That’s the best points-per-game average in the NHL among defensemen (1.75), quite easily. Those stats aren’t likely to deflate, given that Bouchard spends copious amounts of time with McDavid and Draisaitl at 5-on-5 and on special teams. If anyone can score his way to the Norris, it’s him.
That established: There still needs to be a few more voters willing to accept his defensive competence or at least that the best defense can be a dominating offense. That gets Bouchard from candidate to Norris winner, ultimately.
There are two constants during Jack Hughes‘ career with the Devils: Injuries, and not just the ones he’s suffered through; and a lack of consistent, dependable goaltending.
In his previous seven seasons, the Devils ranked no better than 11th in team save percentage and ranked 19th or worse in five of those seasons — including 30th and 31st overall. Watching the Devils skaters slump their shoulders on the bench as the first shot against of the game flew past their own goalie happened too frequently.
Hellebuyck gives the Devils their best goalie since Martin Brodeur and a last line of defense they’ve lacked. It’s a game-changing trade that takes a good team and potentially makes it great.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Watching Hellebuyck’s debut against the Dallas Stars, you could see why he’d waive his trade protection for the Devils. When they’re on their game, they possess the puck and limit chances in their own zone. They have a cadre of skill players and a deep blue line, accentuated by the best season of Luke Hughes‘ career so far. He won’t be asked to lug this team to a playoff seed like a tugboat pulled a dilapidated ship. When things are clicking, all he needs to be is the last line of defense.
Again, he takes a good team and elevates it. GM Sunny Mehta had already done good work in building out the team’s bottom six, and that work likely continues with Dawson Mercer now in Winnipeg.
I think the East still goes through either Carolina or Florida, but you can already see the confidence in the Devils’ game now that their goaltending has been fortified.
The Rangers were one of the biggest shocks of the first month of the season, not just for their strong start but for having the start continue through a season-ending injury to goalie Igor Shesterkin. As of Wednesday, they were third in the Metro Division in points, holding down a playoff spot for most of the season.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. OK, it’s a tenuous grip on a playoff spot at best. Through Wednesday, the Rangers were fifth in the Metro in points percentage with a goal differential that had dipped to just a plus-2. Rookie goalie Dylan Garand was still holding down the fort, but the Rangers’ 5-on-5 numbers in shot share and goal-scoring remain underwater.
There are some absolute bright spots in what might otherwise have been a very dark start for the Rangers, like Adam Fox playing at a Norris Trophy pace and Alexis Lafreniere scoring nine goals in 14 games. But they’re starting to wobble right as teams like the Capitals and Islanders are starting to find their footing.
Jacob Fowler will win the Calder Trophy
Give agent Gerry Johannson credit. He managed to get Montreal goalie Jakub Dobes a three-year, $16.07 million contract extension in July (through 2029-30), and his client might be supplanted as Canadiens’ starter before the holidays.
Some of that is Dobes being unable to recapture the magic of his regular- and postseason runs for Montreal last season. But most of it is the ascendence of his understudy Fowler, who has been one of the NHL’s best goaltenders through seven games: 6-1-0, .942 save percentage, a 1.54 goals-against average and two shutouts. There isn’t a rookie goalie close to his stats at the moment. Heck, there might not even be a rookie skater in the same conversation as Fowler at this point.
The verdict: SLIGHT OVERREACTION. Fowler is building an immaculate case right now, but there are a few factors to consider here. The first is Dobes, who built up a lot of good will during Montreal’s run to the conference finals. Goaltending success is fickle. One Fowler slump and Dobes groove, and the 25-year-old Czech could get the crease back.
The second is the nature of the Calder Trophy race, which is a typically crowded field. Fowler has netminders like Dylan Garand (Rangers), Colten Ellis (Sabres) and Sergei Murashov (Penguins) in his rookie class. The race among rookie forwards — a class that includes Gavin McKenna (Maple Leafs), James Hagens (Bruins), Ivar Stenberg (Sharks) and Porter Martone (Flyers) — is just getting started. Cole Hutson (Capitals) appears to be the best of the defensemen.
Fowler has planted his flag in this Calder Trophy race, to be sure. But please note that five of the last seven players to win rookie of the month honors in the first month of the season went on to finish outside the top three for the Calder. Of course, the other two were Matthew Schaefer and Moritz Seider, so …
The Detroit Red Wings have made more news off the ice than on the sheet this season. Restricted free agent defenseman Edvinsson has yet to play this season, as he reportedly seeks an exit from Detroit after rejected several contract offers from the team. Captain Larkin rejoined the Red Wings after his request for a trade went public last summer and has six points in 10 games after having the “C” removed from his uniform.
Interim GM Shawn Horcoff hasn’t found an offer for either player that’s satisfactory for the Red Wings. And so we watch and they wait, for what many believe with be an Edvinsson trade first and foremost.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Edvinsson’s situation has something that Larkin’s does not, which is a ticking clock. If the 23-year-old blueliner isn’t signed by Dec. 1, he’ll be ineligible to play in the NHL for the remainder of the 2026-27 season. Obviously, that deadline is significant not only for the Red Wings and their disgruntled player, but also for any teams giving up assets to acquire him.
That alone should have Edvinsson on the move before Larkin. But also consider that Larkin is on the roster and contributing to a team desperate to make the playoffs again; and that the return for a top center needs to be a home run for the Red Wings, which will also delay a Larkin deal.
When the Kings hired Peter Laviolette in the offseason, it was reasonably assumed that they could extend their playoff appearance streak to six seasons … even if, at best, the Kings were looking at a sixth straight first-round exit in the Western Conference. Making the playoffs is what Lavy does: His teams have made the cut in his first full season at each of his six previous NHL coaching stops.
But in the first season of the post-Anze Kopitar Era in L.A., that playoff streak appears to already be in serious jeopardy. The Kings were 3-6-2 in their first 11 games, for a .364 points percentage. They had a minus-9 goal differential — please note that the Kings have only finished in the negative five times in their last 16 seasons.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Kings blogger Alexander Legget of Mayors Manor recently offered this stat: There have been 74 teams in NHL history with a 3-8 record through 11 games. Only 13 of them made the playoffs, or 17.6%. In the last 10 seasons, only four teams out of 28 made the playoff cut. So that’s the climb for the Kings.
But the reaction here isn’t that Los Angeles will miss the playoffs. It’s that they’re a disaster, and that’s a reasonable take at this juncture, unfortunately. Fears about their offensive depth are confirmed: While the top line of Artemi Panarin, Alex Laferriere and Adrian Kempe has been dominant, the rest of the roster looks anemic. Foundational player Quinton Byfield‘s breakout season looks to be deferred again. That 30-goal season from Trevor Moore a few years back remains a distant memory. Maybe there’s an uptick if and when Kevin Fiala returns, but he’s not enough.
There was talk that the Kings were in on Connor Hellebuyck before he was traded to the Devils. That made little sense, but then there hasn’t been much lately that’s made sense about the Kings’ direction. Pity Drew Doughty, loyal to a fault and praying that the Kings could build a contender again in his twilight years. Those prayers aren’t going to be answered.
Earlier this week, Matthews became the fastest player in Toronto Maple Leafs history to reach 800 career points, needing just 703 games. Darryl Sittler hit 800 in 742 games back in 1980, in an era when points were showered down on every stat sheet like confetti on New Year’s Eve.
Of course, it was also a reminder that Matthews had 727 points in his first 629 career games and thus had 74 in his next 71 games — still impressive, but nowhere near his elite career pace.
Matthews wasn’t Matthews over the last two seasons due to injury and roster turnover. His career high of 69 goals in 2023-24 was followed by goal-scoring seasons of 33 and 27 tallies. Was this still a franchise-level superstar that could control play and challenge for MVP honors? He didn’t even crack the top 10 in our preseason player ranking on ESPN!
Well, guess what? He has 20 points in 14 games, including nine goals for a 54-goal pace.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Papi’s home.
Matthews has been absolutely dominant offensively so far this season, including a 22.5% shooting percentage. Even if that dips, this is a guy who used to top out at around an 18% shooting percentage in his typical seasons.
My colleague Rachel Kryshak made an excellent point in her “One Month Breakouts” article this week: “According to NHL Edge, Matthews has jumped from the 52nd and 72nd percentiles in 20-22 mph and 18-20 mph bursts in 2025-26, to the 68th and 93rd percentiles this season. He has been far more involved off the puck, specifically on the forecheck, resulting in his line forcing turnovers, extending offensive zone time and creating more scoring chances.”
First off, elite usage of NHL Edge stats, above their usual application as Jumbotron trivia. Second, that’s evidence of a player who is finally healthy and has put in the work in the offseason to get his game back to where it belongs.
San Jose can’t meet the hype
Macklin Celebrini‘s MVP-worthy campaign (45 goals, 115 points) last season had the Sharks just four points away from their first postseason berth since 2019. Hence, they became a popular preseason pick as a breakout team in the Pacific Division, especially after some offseason acquisitions — defensemen Darnell Nurse, Jacob Trouba and Michael Kesselring, and No. 2 overall pick forward Ivar Stenberg — deepened their roster.
So far this season, the Sharks’ offense hasn’t gotten cooking yet beyond another stellar start for Celebrini. One assumes it’s just a matter of time before it does. But the systemic problems San Jose has faced defensively — through 12 games, they were 31st in expected goals against at 5-on-5 — have continued and could undermine their season.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. Even those who believed the Sharks could make the playoffs didn’t expect them to shut down opponents like a mid-90s neutral-zone trap team. The formula for San Jose is essentially the formula for the Anaheim Ducks in their playoff breakthrough last season: Outscore your defensive problems and hope your goaltending holds the fort enough to make the postseason cut.
The Ducks were 29th in goals against per game last season (3.51) and 13th in goals for (3.23), with Lukas Dostal just a bit underwater in goals saved above expected (minus-2.9). The Sharks were 30th in goals against last season (3.54) and 17th in goals for (3.04), with Yaroslav Askarov basically an analytics disaster (minus-18.9).
Through 12 games this season, the Sharks were still defensively porous, if slightly improved (3.50). Askarov and Alex Nedeljkovic have both been on the plus side of goals saved above expected. So there are some early signs that the defense and goaltending might be improving.
Their offense sputtering is unexpected, in the sense that we didn’t think a Macklin Celebrini-led team would be scoring at a Calgary Flames pace at 5-on-5 through the first dozen games. This team had a 10.1% shooting percentage at evens last season and came out of the gate this season shooting 6.4%. We still think the hype is real about the black and teal.
Quinn Hughes will not re-sign with Minnesota
The summer came and went without a Hughes extension in Minnesota. Training camp did the same, as did the start of the season. The Norris Trophy winner has been saying the right things to local media about his time with the Wild being “some of the most fun hockey I’ve ever played” and that “I wouldn’t be surprised if something happens soon” regarding his future in Minnesota.
But every day without a contract extension is another day closer to unrestricted free agency next summer, where he could waltz to join brothers Jack and Luke in New Jersey should the Devils want to do in that direction. Former NHLer Ryan Whitney, on a recent episode of “Spittin’ Chiclets,” went as far as to say that there was a “100% chance” that Quinn plays for the Devils next season.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. In full disclosure, the original summation here was more optimistic about Hughes’s changes to remain in Minnesota. But then Guerin went on “The Chad Hartman Show” on Wednesday and said:
“I have to just let Quinn do his thing, have his interviews, say what he needs to say. I’m not going to try to get in his head. All I’m doing right now is letting this kid play hockey. He’s playing great, he’s helping us win games. I’ve always said that whatever will happen, will happen, and the only person that knows what’s going on in Quinn’s head is Quinn, and that’s OK. I just want to just keep moving forward and winning games.”
Alright…
“To be quite honest with you, there’s nothing to talk about right now. What am I going to do? Like, going ‘please, please, please?’ This is a unique situation. Quinn has to wrap his head around a couple of things, and I don’t think anything’s changed. Right now I’m focused on our team and winning games. Quinn’s situation will resolve itself at some point.”
Oh …
“At some point in time, I’ll have to try to figure things out and see what’s best for the team. But I know one thing’s for sure: Having Quinn on our team is what’s best for the team. I’ll be completely honest with you: I don’t know. I don’t know what’s going to happen. I don’t know what I’m going to do. There’s no date. What we’re doing right now is focusing on our team and trying to win hockey games. That’s really it. I think some people want to make this more complicated than it really is, being the media. And it’s not that complicated.”
Yikes.
Well, I guess there’s always the chance he signs in Minnesota just to spite those haters in Vancouver and their chants. There’s always a chance.
Jump ahead:
Winners, losers of the week
Favorite on-ice moment
Must-see games
Puck headlines
WINNERS AND LOSERS
The Canadiens skate into Manitoba, win the Heritage Classic in front of a giant fake fireplace and wood paneling, and then had Cole Caufield say Montreal “might be Canada’s favorite team” based on their fan support. Magnifique!
Loser: Michael Andlauer
I think that Ottawa Senators fans sufficiently rebuked Brady Tkachuk upon his return as a Florida Panther, from the chants in the stands to the totems in the urinals. But in the middle of praising those fans on the “Coming In Hot” podcast, Senators owner Michael Andlauer couldn’t leave well enough alone in discussing Tkachuk, his former captain who “found somebody else” after last season. (Andlauer’s words.)
The owner shared this anecdote from when Tkachuk opened the scoring for Florida and put Ottawa down a goal. “He skated by our bench and said, ‘Some things never change, eh boys?’ I don’t think that motivated our players much,” he said, sarcastically. When you’re trying to bury the guy who jilted your franchise, maybe don’t make him seem abjectly hilarious.
Here’s how the season has started for Wild star Kirill Kaprizov. Offensively, he led the league with 14 goals in 14 games, which puts him on pace to score 84 goals this season, which would be the fifth highest total in NHL history.
Defensively, as analyst Mike Kelly noted, Kaprizov’s line with Matt Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek has the most 5-on-5 ice time together (142:51) this season without having allowed a goal against. Building a pretty good case for “worth the money” for GM Bill Guerin.
Loser: Fun
After Calgary’s Matvei Gridin scored his second goal of the game against Toronto on Monday, this 20-year-old hockey player had the AUDACITY to hit the Griddy briefly during his goal celebration. Because that’s his nickname and, as he told Sportsnet after the game, he felt it was a good time to breakout the viral dance because the Flames were up three goals and “having fun” in the moment.
As usual, any goal celebration beyond the standard issue received some tired criticism from the old guard. Or as Gridin put it: “A couple old guys said it was a bit too much, but I think they loved it.”
Winner: Sunny Mehta’s logic
Hey, turns out he doesn’t hate goaltenders.
When I interviewed Mehta, we discussed a controversial quote he gave NHL.com about his approach to goaltending: “I’m reluctant to invest significant assets there instead of in areas where the results may be more predictable.”
Having given up significant assets for a goaltender, how does he square that philosophy now?
At his press conference last weekend, Mehta referenced a paper he wrote in 2010 in which he “built a Bayesian hierarchical model where I show you exactly what I think the talent distribution is among goaltenders.” At the time, Roberto Luongo as at the top of the chart. The spread between elite goalies and the rank and file is “narrower than most people think, but that doesn’t mean the spread is zero at all” he said. But in the case of Hellebuyck, the trade was in keeping with his research and his recent quote.
“If the goaltending position is tricky to predict, where do you want to bet on? You want to bet on a person with a large sample size of excellent results who’s on a good cap hit. To me, this is exactly congruent with that,” he said.
I mean, if you have a Bayesian hierarchical model that proves otherwise, be my guest …
Loser: Canadian Exceptionalism
The exodus of American players from Canada has reignited an extremely tiresome viewpoint that winning in a Canadian market is more meaningful than doing the same in a U.S. market. Bryan Hayes of the TSN Overdrive show was the latest peddler of this exhaustion, in reference to Connor Hellebuyck moving from Winnipeg to a less “pressure-filled” market in Jersey:
“Maybe I’m romanticizing it too much but playing in a packed building with fans that live and die by it, that are going to remember you forever, where unfortunately there are a lot of other markets in the U.S. where that’s not applicable. There are too many players running from it.”
Moving past the absurd notion that American hockey fans aren’t equipped to “live and die” by their teams because they’re not Canadian, the Stanley Cup weighs the same no matter where you lift it. And sorry, but the Flyer who brings the first championship to Philadelphia since 1975 will be as legendary as Mark Messier ending a 54-year drought in New York or Sidney Crosby winning three Cups in Pittsburgh or even the Golden Misfits who lifted Stanley in the Nevada desert for the first time.
Or, you know, the American goalie who made 41 saves in an Olympic gold medal game recently …
FAVORITE ON-ICE MOMENT
BIG CELLY FOR MICHAL POSTAVA IN HIS FIRST NHL WIN!! 🙌 https://t.co/muXujRscCU
— NHL (@NHL) October 27, 2026
Detroit Red Wings rookie Michal Postava made his first NHL start against the Edmonton Oilers this week, and all he had to do for his first NHL win was make a game-saving stop on Evan Bouchard at the end of overtime and then make saves on Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in the shootout.
Some victories are given. Some are earned.
FAVORITE OFF-ICE MOMENT
Spooky season is here! 👻 https://t.co/7AYHPHE58n
— Pittsburgh Penguins (@penguins) October 26, 2026
Halloween is a joyous time in the NHL. Some costumes were obvious, like Macklin “Maverick” Celebrini and wingman Will “Goose” Smith. (Will, please do not look up what happens to Goose.)
Some were less expected, like Erik Karlsson dressing up as a Fem-Bot from “Austin Powers.” What a way to celebrate the 10th anniversary of his iconic “Black Swan” costume.
JERSEY FOUL OF THE WEEK
The return of Quinn Hughes to Vancouver produced a treasure trove of Jersey Fouls, many of them unpublishable.
This “Quit Hughes” one sent by Nate Weigel was Wysh List-friendly. Alas, we couldn’t find a good look at the Jersey Foul where a Canucks fan doctored the nameplate to say “UGH.”
MUST-SEE GAMES
Columbus Blue Jackets at Dallas Stars
Saturday, Oct. 31, 8 p.m. ET | ESPN+
Zach Werenski makes his first visit to Dallas after rejecting a trade to the Stars during the offseason. Multiple reports at the time said that Dallas defenseman Thomas Harley would have been sent back to the Jackets, in a trade many anticipate could be revisited some day down the line. Nothing awkward about any of this!
Edmonton Oilers at New Jersey Devils
Tuesday, Nov. 3, 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN+/Disney+/Hulu
It’s the Connor vs. Connor matchup we all want to see. McDavid threatening NHL scoring records. Hellebuyck likely making his first home start in New Jersey as a member of the Devils. Obviously this is the thing that all of the United States will be focused on next Tuesday night.
PUCK HEADLINES
DATELINE: Hellebuyck Trade
One more note on the Hellebuyck trade drama. KSL Sports reporter Cole Bagley caused a stir when he said the Jets asked the Mammoth for either Logan Cooley or Dylan Guenther in a Hellebuyck deal.
Multiple sources have told me this is the level of player GM Kevin Cheveldayoff was seeking, not only from Utah but from another Hellebuyck suitor in the Carolina Hurricanes, where the ask was for either Logan Stankoven or Seth Jarvis.
Obviously, these were all non-starters. The problem for Utah, Carolina and other potential trade partners was that they didn’t have a “next best option” forward that could entice Winnipeg. The Devils had one in Dawson Mercer — 25 years old, no trade protection, two controllable seasons and one assumes some level of assurance that he’ll remain in Winnipeg — along with 2026 12th overall pick Alexander Command, a player Cheveldayoff had on his draft board too.
DATELINE: St. Louis
ALL ABOARD! 🚂🤘
Ozzy is coming to @Enterprise_Cntr. Ozzy Osbourne Bobblehead giveaway for the first 10,000 fans on Dec. 2! https://t.co/0fFvSEgdXe https://t.co/GCUDUamIkv
— St. Louis Blues (@StLouisBlues) October 28, 2026
I still can’t believe this is real: The Blues are giving away an Ozzy Osbourne bobblehead to the first 10,000 fans on Dec. 2, a statue honoring one of the most iconic mugshots in NHL history.
The year was 1984. Ozzy was on his “Bark At The Moon” tour. He played St. Louis and somehow came into possession of a Blues shirt that he would wear 12 days later while “staggering drunk” on Beale Street in Memphis, where he was booked on one misdemeanor count of public intoxication.
For years, the Blues allowed a cottage industry of shirts and other trinkets featuring the mugshot to thrive. They finally embraced the Ozzy of it all during their 2019 Stanley Cup run, as Ozzy tweeted a photo of himself in a decidedly different Blues sweater.
Kudos to whoever hopped on the Crazy Train and cooked up this bobblehead.
