A little over three weeks into the NBA season, we now have a good idea — even if not a complete picture — of what type of fantasy impact players are going to have this season.
Has Luka Doncic‘s production gone up a whole different level without LeBron James in Los Angeles, as many expected? You bet he has.
Has Cooper Flagg found another level in Year 2 in Dallas? No doubt.
A closer look at the top five on the ESPN Player Rater heading into Wednesday’s action reveals, in order: Victor Wembanyama, Doncic, Flagg, Tyrese Maxey and Nikola Jokic.
But not everything has gone as planned, so we reached out to our fantasy basketball experts Andre Snellings, Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Jim McCormick, Steve Alexander and Michael F. Florio for more insight on the things that have jumped out to them so far this season.
Is Wemby now the sure-fire No. 1 in all formats?
Snellings: Wemby is off to an absurd start to the season, but he is still one of three players with an argument to be the top pick. As outstanding as Wemby has been so far, Luka Doncic is still averaging slightly more fantasy points per game (68.2 vs 66.8). Jokic is off to a slightly slower start, but he is still averaging almost 60 FP/G and averaged 66.3 FP over the entirety of last season. I’d lean Wemby in category leagues because blocks are so valuable, but all three could be the top pick with no shame.
Karabell: No, I can’t say Wemby is No. 1 in all formats. I think Doncic is right there in roto, especially if he keeps averaging close to 40 PPG. It’s Luka’s scoring versus Wemby’s unique blocks. The case can be made. Luka is also an incredible player. Unfortunately, neither is a lock to play in 65 games.
Moody: Yes. Wembanyama has surpassed Nikola Jokic as my No. 1 fantasy player, regardless of format. He’s averaged 30.1 PPG, 11.9 RPG and an incredible 4.4 BPG. His ability to dominate multiple categories, especially blocks, gives him an advantage no other player can match. Jokic remains elite, but Wembanyama’s production and upside put him in a class of his own.
McCormick: This feels certain after the past year. Jokic is less efficient than at any point in his prime from three and two-point range, and has slipped from arguably the league’s best rebounder to an excellent one. He remains a one-man offense, but looks different since his knee injury. Wembanyama is unlocking his offense while already the best defender on Earth.
Florio: Wemby is certainly trending to be the No. 1 player and will likely be so for a decade-plus, but I am not sure we are there just yet. While he does provide more scoring and blocks, the assist numbers heavily sway in Jokic’s favor. I can see still going Jokic over Wemby in certain builds.
Alexander: Yes, Victor Wembanyama is the best fantasy player on the planet. I said it last year, I said it prior to this season and I say it now. The points, rebounds, steals, blocks, 3-pointers and shooting percentages are off the chart. And he’s doing it in 10 fewer minutes a night than Doncic. Nikola who?
Which player has benefited the most as a fill-in for an injured player?
Snellings: Anthony Black has the talent and ability to be the starting point guard for the Orlando Magic, but he started the season behind Jalen Suggs. But, much like last season, with Suggs sidelined Black has exploded. Black’s all-around game makes him a legitimate top-50 fantasy player as a starter, versus being borderline top-100 as a reserve.
Karabell: Pacers G Andrew Nembhard was one of my favorite players for last season, when he averaged 34.1 fantasy PPG with starter Tyrese Haliburton sidelined. It was hard to make a case Nembhard would match his numbers this season, but Haliburton (hamstring) got hurt again, and Nembhard’s minutes and overall numbers are up!
Moody: Ayo Dosunmu has taken full advantage of Anthony Edwards‘ absence in Minnesota. Through seven starts, Dosunmu has averaged 21.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.0 APG and 1.7 SPG. Edwards is expected to miss significant time following knee surgery, so Dosunmu should continue providing excellent fantasy value.
McCormick: Dosunmu has transitioned from a fun role player in Chicago to a rising star in Minnesota. Building on last spring’s impressive playoff run, Dosunmu is among the league leaders in transition scoring and has added another level of creation while taking on possessions vacated by Anthony Edwards. Currently No. 19 on the Player Rater, Dosunmu is proving to be special.
Florio: May not be the top option, but I want to talk up Precious Achiuwa, who has helped keep a number of my injured teams afloat. He has been an extremely reliable source of rebounds, blocks and steals, while providing some surprising scoring totals.
Alexander: I’m kind of torn between Franz Wagner (Paolo Banchero) and Ajay Mitchell (Jalen Williams), but I’m going to go with Franz here. Wagner scored 30 in two straight games entering Wednesday night and is averaging 23.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, 10.2 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.2 3-pointers in November entering Wednesday night. He’s playing like a first-rounder and may have overtaken Banchero as the leader of the Magic. Mitchell is a close second.
Who is the biggest disappointment among the players you’ve drafted?
Snellings: Jalen Green has gotten off to a much slower start than I expected this season. After dealing with injury much of last season, he locked in down the stretch and showed that he still has major scoring potential for the Suns. But this season, he is averaging only 11.8 PPG. That mark would represent, by-far, the lowest scoring season of his entire career.
Karabell: Disappointments? Where do I begin? Supposedly safe C Rudy Gobert jumps out as a problem in any format as his shooting has been terrible, especially from the free throw line where he is a huge liability. His blocked shots are down, too. While I think some improvement is pending, I may have picked the wrong season to invest.
Moody: Evan Mobley has been disappointing relative to his ADP. He’s averaged 17.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG and just 1.1 BPG. The drop in rebounds and blocks is especially frustrating because those categories were a major part of his fantasy appeal. He’s making more triples, but I expected more from a player drafted to anchor my frontcourt.
McCormick: Norman Powell has gone from a safe, steady, high-volume scoring guard during his best years with the LA Clippers and Miami Heat to a somewhat empty bucket in Chicago. His shot volume and shot quality have dipped significantly, while he’s no longer trusted to create for others the way he was empowered to in Miami. Some of this is player decline; much of it is a poor scheme and roster fit. It’s worth watching whether Powell gets dealt, which could resurrect his value in a better role.
Florio: Amen Thompson has disappointed to start the season. He is averaging less points, assists, rebounds, steals and blocks than last season. He currently is outside the top 55 players in fantasy points. I expect better results, but the start has been disappointing.
Alexander: Matas Buzelis and Kel’el Ware are tied for this honor, and unluckily for me, I drafted them everywhere. Chicago seems to be in a “give it to Caleb Wilson and get out of the way” mode, while Ware can’t get minutes from new coach Taylor Jenkins. I’m not giving up on either one of them yet, but Buzelis has ranked outside the top 200 thus far and Ware is simply fighting for his fantasy life as Myles Turner‘s backup. Ware should have had a big game on Wednesday with Turner in street clothes. He was struggling as I wrote this, but at least had one steal and two blocks at press time.
Which player is your biggest surprise so far this season?
Snellings: I’ve got to go with Yaxel Lendeborg. I thought this rookie class would be impressive, but I didn’t expect Lendeborg to be arguably the best fantasy contributor of his class. He, along with Darius Acuff Jr., have both been firmly top-40 fantasy producers to date. But while I picked Acuff as a Rookie of the Year favorite on NBA Draft night, I didn’t see Lendeborg’s dominance coming so he’s the bigger surprise.
Karabell: You may not believe it, but I nearly wrote in a preseason column that new Celtics SF/PF Paul George would have a better fantasy season than the star he was traded for, 76ers SF/SG Jaylen Brown. Even with Brown fighting for shots, I thought it may be too bold. So far, it hasn’t been. They’re nearly tied in points formats, but George is way ahead in roto. George is a perfect fit for Boston, hitting 3-pointers, getting steals. Perhaps they can keep him healthy, too.
Moody: Acuff has been a huge surprise. The Kings rookie has averaged 26.2 PPG and 7.3 APG while carrying a usage rate around 32%, one of the highest in the league. Sacramento has given him plenty of freedom, and he’s making the most of it. The efficiency and turnovers need work, but he’s already a difference-maker in points leagues.
McCormick: Kyshawn George emerging as a two-way breakout was not on my bingo card heading into the season. The tall wing does a bit of everything for the Wizards and fantasy managers, particularly with his perch atop shooting guards and second among small forwards in added value via blocks. The sample is becoming more stable, suggesting George’s rise is real.
Florio: The biggest surprise has to be Ty Jerome. I know he was a popular sleeper, but he is currently sixth in the NBA in scoring averaging 26.7 points per game. Those ahead of him were all early picks, with four of them being top five in ADP.
Alexander: I’m going with my guy Davion Mitchell, who has become a bit of a double-double machine and seems like the only player in Miami who enjoys playing with Giannis Antetokounmpo. Mitchell is averaging a career-high 16.5 points and 8.5 assists thus far, along with 1.3 steals and 2.3 3-pointers. I just wish he was a better free throw shooter, but Mitchell has certainly answered the call this season.
