Each week in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!
NOTE: All mention of fantasy points is for PPR formats, unless otherwise mentioned.
Williams, 25, is one of the rare running backs who consistently outperforms expectations and his ADP. He entered 2026 having surpassed 1,100 rushing yards in three consecutive seasons, with 13 or more total touchdowns each year and at least a top-10 fantasy finish. And still, he went 14th at his position in ESPN ADP.
The Rams gave the impression they weren’t true believers, too, opting to draft Michigan’s Blake Corum early in 2024 and handing him a significant role in Year 2. The Rams led the NFL in total yards last season, QB Matthew Stafford won league MVP honors and WR Puka Nacua was fantastic as always, but the Rams were also seventh in rushing yards.
The current version of Williams leads the Rams in fantasy points entering this Monday night at home against the defensively challenged Buffalo Bills. Only four defenses permit more fantasy points to running backs. Williams is on pace for his typical rushing numbers (230 carries, 1,250 yards, 13 touchdowns) but something has altered a bit.
Stafford is throwing the football toward Williams much more! Corum remains a factor on early downs, but Williams has 16 receptions for 137 yards on 20 targets the past two weeks. That is clearly new and important, and perhaps not a fluke. Perhaps the Rams did not think Williams was capable of this, but he is.
If the receiving work continues, Williams may deliver his best season yet. He caught 36 passes for 281 yards this past season (both career bests) though he did see more work in the final weeks. Perhaps it was a harbinger. This year, he is pacing toward 89 receptions for 735 yards. He is already at 25 targets in four games, after earning 50 targets in 17 games last season! This is a positive trend, one which few considered on draft day.
Frankly, while San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey sees massive reduction in his volume and statistical output, Williams is producing 2025’s McCaffrey numbers and he is outscoring him by roughly four fantasy points per game this year. McCaffrey delivered 2,126 yards from scrimmage last season with 17 touchdowns. Williams is pacing toward 1,985 yards and 17 scores. OK, perhaps you never thought these players comparable, but look at the numbers.
After totaling a bloated and perhaps irresponsible 311 rushing attempts and 102 receptions last season, McCaffrey is on pace for only 213 rushes and 68 catches. It remains valuable, but a fraction of last season’s volume. McCaffrey is scoring touchdowns but still, when everyone figured some degree of volume regression was coming, who considered this? If you were drafting today, knowing what you know about McCaffrey’s history of injury (and dominance when healthy, to be fair), would you choose him over Kyren Williams? I do not think I would.
One more RB note: If the Chase Brown manager in your league(s) is frustrated with his performance, go get him — quickly. Brown’s numbers are down more than two fantasy points per game from last season, and it is possible the Cincinnati Bengals — thanks to recent awkward pleas from QB Joe Burrow — lean even more into the passing game, but it seems unlikely. Brown just faced the Jacksonville Jaguars, Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans, but next up are the Miami Dolphins, a bye week and games with the Tennessee Titans, Washington Commanders and New Orleans Saints soon after. Brown is fine.
Don’t be surprised if … Detroit Lions WR Jameson Williams eclipses 1,000 receiving yards yet again
As the No. 12 pick in the 2022 NFL draft out of Alabama, Williams was supposed to be one of the top wide receivers in the sport. He finally broke out in his third and fourth seasons, surpassing 1,000 yards because of his big-play ability, not volume. He averaged better than 17 yards per reception each season, scoring seven receiving touchdowns each time. With Detroit’s talent and friendly schedule, this could have been his best season. Well, it still can be!
Williams, the No. 27 WR in ESPN preseason ADP, enters Week 5 with a mere 16 receptions for 229 yards and no touchdowns, averaging 9.7 fantasy points per game. That is tied for 42nd and surely his investors are grumbling, even after a solid Sunday night when he caught six passes for 102 yards against the Carolina Panthers.
Williams averaged 12.9 points last season, when only 11 wide receivers outscored him in total points. Williams may never pile on the receptions. That is not who he is. The Lions have Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs for volume. TE Sam LaPorta seems rejuvenated. Second-year WR Isaac TeSlaa played nearly half the team’s offensive snaps in Week 4. He is pushing Williams for relevancy.
While I do prefer WRs with more volume, stick with Williams. He is down to 90.6% rostered in ESPN leagues, but a slow start to a season isn’t unusual. Last year, Williams caught only 11 passes through five games, topping 50 receiving yards once. He scored six touchdowns after that, including three performances with 119 or more receiving yards. Williams disappears some games but when he hits, he hits.
Williams should hit this week against the Arizona Cardinals and, after a Week 6 bye (keep Williams rostered through that, of course), games versus the Green Bay Packers (twice), Dolphins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears (twice) loom. QB Jared Goff may finish among the top five QB scorers again (he did last season). All the Lions will thrive, including Williams.
Don’t be surprised if … two Las Vegas Raiders finish among the top 10 tight end scorers
Everyone knows about star TE Brock Bowers, receiver of 112 passes for 1,194 yards during his rookie season of 2024. Bowers missed the first two games this season, then dominated the recent two games, scoring 27.6 and 20.6 points. He has missed half the games and yet ranks ninth among all tight ends in fantasy points! Bowers may finish as fantasy’s top tight end. Frankly, he may challenge all but a few wide receivers for fantasy points, too.
His teammate Michael Mayer is a solid player too. He showed it in a Week 4 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, hauling in eight of 10 targets for 82 yards, and Mayer also scored a touchdown in Week 3. The Raiders face the New England Patriots on Sunday, and it should be interesting for myriad reasons, among them that the Patriots permit the fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
When Raiders QB Kirk Cousins throws, he looks for his tight ends and RB Ashton Jeanty (who looks kind of average, no?). Tre Tucker is the lone Raiders WR with more than five receptions. Cody White will not continue catching TDs with meager volume.
Mayer leads the Raiders with 20 receptions, which should not last because Bowers is healthy, but there is a path toward Mayer continuing to thrive as their No. 2 target (Jeanty aside). Bowers earns ample attention. Mayer played a few more snaps than Bowers in Week 4, and far more than any Raiders wide receiver. He ran routes on 69% of the plays, and it was a tad higher in Week 3. Mayer is going to play. He isn’t Bowers, of course, but he is pacing toward 85 receptions on 102 targets.
While some say that the tight end position is awesome and deep this season, it doesn’t look consistent after the obvious names. Bowers and Trey McBride are great, while healthy George Kittle and LaPorta are producing. Travis Kelce isn’t done yet. Juwan Johnson, 30, may have his best season. Isaiah Likely surely will. Keep rostering Harold Fannin Jr., Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland. After that, what have we got? Dalton Kincaid? Dallas Goedert? It may be Mayer.
Don’t be surprised if … the window to trade New England Patriots QB Drake Maye in fantasy for big return ends rather quickly
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Why Field Yates likes Drake Maye’s fantasy prospects with more relaxed schedule
Let’s end with something controversial: Maye scored 26.16 points in Sunday’s important road win over the Bills. First, the Bills have major problems on defense. Second, while it was nice that Maye ran for 54 yards, he also fumbled three times and threw an interception, too.
The options for him to throw to still do not excite. I don’t buy the idea that Maye, last season’s darling and nearly the league MVP, just needed a “confidence boost” to get back on track to last year’s numbers. C’mon, he was supremely confident last week and the week before and before that.
New England’s schedule was a joke last season. It is among the most difficult this season, which is saying something considering they play in a division with the Dolphins and New York Jets. There will be turnovers during this Sunday’s tougher-than-expected match against the Raiders. It remains dangerous to assume Maye is a top-10 fantasy QB this season.
