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ATP Finals preview: Can Alcaraz close out the year with a big win?

After one of the strangest and most unpredictable years in recent memory, the 2026 ATP season has nearly come to a close.

But first there’s just one last title on the line.

While it might not be the final group anyone would have guessed at the start of the year, the top performing men will battle for the year-end trophy at the ATP Finals. Held in Turin, Italy, for the sixth straight year as part of a deal that has been extended until at least 2030, the event gets underway with round-robin play Sunday. It will feature the top eight singles players and eight doubles teams — with a total of a record-setting $15.75 million in prize money.

After every player or duo has played against the other three in their groups, the top two from each group advance to the semifinals. The tournament ends on Nov. 22 with the singles champion earning up to $5,171,000 in prize money and the winning doubles team earning a maximum of $959,300, and up to 1,500 ranking points. (The singles or doubles champion can earn the highest amount of money and points by winning all three of their group matches. Both earn less if they do not go undefeated.)

Here’s everything you need to know entering the 2026 ATP Finals.


Who’s in

Singles

John McEnroe group

1. Alexander Zverev (Germany)

3. Ben Shelton (USA)

6. Arthur Fils (France)

8. Rafael Jodar (Spain)

Ivan Lendl group

2. Carlos Alcaraz (Spain)

4. Daniil Medvedev (Russia)

5. Flavio Cobolli (Italy)

7. Frances Tiafoe (USA)

Doubles

Todd Woodbridge group

1. Harri Heliovaara (Finland) and Henry Patten (Great Britain)

4. Marcelo Arevalo (El Salvador) and Mate Pavic (Croatia)

6. Theo Arribage (France) and Albano Olivetti (France)

8. Orlando Luz (Brazil) and Rafael Matos (Brazil)

Mark Woodforde group

2. Christian Harrison (USA) and Neal Skupski (Great Britain)

3. Marcel Granollers (Spain) and Horacio Zeballos (Argentina)

5. Simone Bolelli (Italy) and Andrea Vavassori (Italy)

7. Kevin Krawietz (Germany) and Tim Pütz (Germany)

Who’s out

While many of the ATP’s best and brightest are in the field, it’s perhaps equally notable who isn’t playing.

Jannik Sinner, the five-time major champion and the world No. 1 until earlier this month, qualified as the No. 2 seed but, because of a right knee injury, he hasn’t played since winning the title at Wimbledon in July. Sinner, who held the top ranking for 95 straight weeks, told reporters earlier this week that he hopes to be back on tour in time for the Australian Open but was noncommittal.

“I have to respect the protocols at the moment because if we rush things we could have more serious problems,” he said.

However, as the two-time defending champion, his absence will certainly be felt in Turin — and provides quite the opportunity for the rest of the field.

But perhaps there is no one who will be more missed than Novak Djokovic. The 39-year-old was edged out of a spot, failing to qualify for what would have been the 19th time in his career. After a challenging year, he had the opportunity to clinch one of the last spots during last week’s Paris Masters event but fell in the round of 32. A seven-time ATP Finals champion, Djokovic would have broken the record he currently shares with Roger Federer for the most appearances.

Their absences — as well as that of Taylor Fritz, who had played in three of the previous four year-end championships and is the second alternate this year — helped pave the way for four men to make their debut at the event. Cobolli, Fils, Tiafoe and Jodar all qualified for the first time in their careers.

The Americans

The 2025 ATP Finals marked the first time since 2006 that multiple Americans qualified in the singles draw, and the countrymen were able to do it again this year with Shelton and Tiafoe competing in Turin.

It’s been an incredibly strong year for the American men — with Fritz and Tommy Paul also battling for some of the final berths — and now both Shelton and Tiafoe will look to cap milestone seasons by becoming the first American man to win the title since Pete Sampras did so in 1999.

Shelton, 24, reached the first major final of his career at the US Open in September, following a stellar run that featured a stunning late-night marathon win over Alcaraz. He also won four ATP titles, including the Masters 1000-level title at the Canadian Open. He is currently ranked a career-high of No. 4 in the world and is making his second appearance at the ATP Finals.

Tiafoe, 28, is appearing in the event 12 years after competing in his first ATP tour level event. After making some changes to his team heading into 2026, Tiafoe made qualifying for the Finals one of his primary goals for the year and he worked tirelessly to achieve it. He earned his biggest title to date at the 500-level Halle Open in June, and reached the finals at both the 500-level Mexican Open in February and the Masters 1000-level Cincinnati Open in August. He became a semifinalist at the US Open for the third time before losing to Shelton. He needed losses from Fritz and Paul in Paris last week to ensure his spot but it didn’t make the accomplishment any less rewarding or validating.

“It feels great,” Tiafoe told ESPN less than an hour after qualifying last week. “Obviously, it’s a testament to the year I’ve had, and I feel really good. I feel really good about what I’ve been able to do and ultimately achieving the ultimate thing that I wanted to do and make the final eight. That was a big thing for me in the beginning of the year with the new squad that I had. I’m super happy about that.”

The favorites

While sidelined for much of the season due to a lingering wrist injury, no one arrives in Turin with more momentum than Alcaraz. After making his return following a five-month absence from the tour at the US Open, Alcaraz has won three titles, including last week’s Paris Masters. He was also victorious in Vienna the week prior, and is now riding a nine-match win streak. Competing in his fourth straight ATP Finals, Alcaraz — an -135 favorite according to DraftKings — will look to close out his injury-laden year with his first title at the event. He will open group play Monday against Tiafoe.

Zverev, the newly crowned world No. 1, has the second-best odds to take home the title but lost in his first — and currently only — match after achieving the milestone. After a breakthrough season, which saw him win his first two major titles at the French Open and the US Open, the 29-year-old Zverev did reach the semifinals at both Shanghai and Vienna but has continued to struggle against the best players. He owns a 3-9 record on the year against players ranked in the top 10 — and that could be tough in a field that is, well, made up of only top-10 players. He has yet to defeat a top-five player in 2026.

But he has won the year-end trophy before — in 2018 and 2021 — and he does have a better record against those in his respective group. He defeated Jodar, who he is scheduled to play Sunday, in their lone career meeting in the Roland Garros quarterfinals this year. Zverev also owns a 6-0 head-to-head record against Shelton, including their most recent meeting in the US Open final, and is 5-2 against Fils. He won their only match of 2026 in the quarterfinals at Indian Wells, 6-2, 6-3. No matter what happens in Turin, Zverev has already clinched the year-end top ranking — but it will be interesting to see how he fares with the newfound attention and expectation.

Rafa 2.0

Djokovic might not have made the cut this year, but at least Rafa — or least a Rafa — will still be there. It’s been a banner year for the 20-year-old, who became the first player in history to reach the ATP Finals in his first year on tour.

Jodar, who opened 2026 ranked No. 168, made the quarterfinals in just the second major of his career at the French Open, won his first ATP title at the Grand Prix Hassan II and even reached a Masters 1000-level final in Shanghai in October. He is now ranked No. 9 in the world and earned the last spot in the field.

Just a year removed from reaching the ATP’s NextGen Finals, showcasing the top players 20-and-under, Jodar will now look to become the youngest player to win the title since John McEnroe did so in 1978 as a 19-year-old. In this wildly chaotic year in men’s tennis, why not, right?

And don’t forget about …

In many ways, it would be fitting for someone completely unexpected to claim the year’s last title. And everyone in the field is capable of big wins on any given day.

Medvedev, the oldest player in the singles field at 30, is making his return to the event after not qualifying last year. He had reached the previous six ATP Finals and took home the title in 2020. Medvedev, the 2021 US Open champion, failed to advance past the fourth round at a major this season but did win four titles, including two this fall, and played in his biggest final in two years at Indian Wells. Medvedev will start play Monday against Cobolli. Medvedev was successful in two of their three previous meetings, but Cobolli won most recently and in their only match of 2026 in the round of 16 in Madrid.

And since then, Cobolli’s career and ranking have only skyrocketed. The 24-year-old made the first Grand Slam final of his career at the French Open before losing to Zverev in five sets. He also won the title in February at the 500-level Mexican Open.

In the other group, Fils, 22, is ready to make his debut count after his own breakout year. Even with multiple injury layoffs this season, Fils nabbed the biggest title of his career at the 1000-level Cincinnati Open and won the trophy at the 500-level Barcelona Open. Fils will face Shelton in his opener on Sunday in their first meeting since 2024.

Seeing double(s)

Having announced large-scale changes — including a decrease in prize money and tournament field sizes — in doubles for future seasons, the ATP has faced significant backlash this season by doubles specialists and fans alike. While that should remain a talking point throughout the week in Turin, the best men’s doubles players in the world will also deservedly get their chance to battle for the year’s final trophy alongside their counterparts in the singles draw.

Heliovaara and Patten are the top-seeded team and the defending champions. With five titles won together in 2026, including Wimbledon, the pair have already jointly locked up the year-end No. 1 distinction and are the favorites to repeat as champions. But it won’t be easy.

Harrison, the only American in the doubles draw, and Skupski won the titles at the Australian Open and the US Open in their first year as a team, and are coming off a finals appearance at the Paris Masters. Harrison, 32, made his debut at the event last year with partner Evan King and has continued to have a monumental rise through the doubles ranks with his first two Slam titles. He is now ranked a career high of No. 4 (behind Skupski at No. 3) and would presumably relish the chance to finish the year with yet another first after a year full of them. Skupski reached the 2025 final with then-partner Joe Salisbury.

Harrison and Skupski first play the German duo of Krawietz and Pütz — the 2024 champions — in round-robin action Monday. Granollers and Zeballos, who together won their second straight French Open this year, are also in their group.

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