Four weeks into the NFL season, the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers are winless, a deeper stumble than anticipated. Which team can rebound, and which problems are real? The San Francisco 49ers look strong, as predicted, but is that start sustainable? Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams are Super Bowl favorites, yet their regular-season win total still offers a fade.
The Texans aren’t this bad, the preseason thesis just cracked
Texans: 0-4, 0-4 ATS (45-1 to win Super Bowl, 18-1 entering Week 1)
The biggest preseason concern for Houston was whether the offense could finally complement an elite defense. Instead, the defense has become part of the problem. Houston is allowing 27 points per game after allowing 17 PPG last season. More concerning, the offseason investment in the run game hasn’t translated. David Montgomery is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry, leaving C.J. Stroud responsible for creating most of the offense (again).
Stroud has actually been solid, throwing for 1,141 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. It’s the lack of red zone execution — top half of the league in attempts, bottom 10 in touchdowns scored. There’s reason to expect improvement: Houston has essentially matched its opponents in total yardage, owns a positive turnover margin and has lost two games by four points or less. This looks more like an underperforming team than a terrible one.
The fix starts with the run game, even if that means leaning more on Woody Marks or adjusting the blocking approach rather than forcing Montgomery into something that isn’t working. Defensively, Houston has to limit explosive passes; the pass rush is still getting home, so the secondary needs to capitalize on that pressure.
There’s room for regression toward competence, but it shouldn’t involve Stroud becoming Superman — just play complementary football. Houston’s season win total was 9.5 going into the season. At 0-4, the market has dropped them to 7.5. Seven wins is the new benchmark.
The Chargers lost their foundation before it ever had an identity
Chargers: 0-4, 0-3-1 ATS (100-1 to win Super Bowl, 17-1 entering Week 1)
The Chargers were a preseason regression candidate because last year’s 11 wins were helped by a soft schedule and close-game success. The bad news: their 0-4 start goes beyond regression.
The offense Mike McDaniel was supposed to unlock has been undermined by the exact concern identified preseason: offensive line health. OT Rashawn Slater is doubtful, OT Joe Alt and G Trevor Penning are questionable, and C Tyler Biadasz is on injured reserve. Justin Herbert is pressing behind unstable protection, turning the ball over and failing to create explosive plays.
The defense has declined without coordinator Jesse Minter, though it has created opportunities, forcing five turnovers against Buffalo — yet losing the game anyway. The fix is simplification: lean on Omarion Hampton and Keaton Mitchell, use motion and quicker throws, and stop asking Herbert to rescue every possession.
The Chargers are probably better than 0-4, but the schedule still limits their recovery. Under 5.5 wins at +118 is worth a look, and I would keep fading them as favorites until this offense proves itself.
Check out the latest Super Bowl odds and major NFL awards futures.
The 49ers’ season win total is ahead of schedule, the championship case remains untested
San Francisco’s 4-0 start has validated my preseason OVER 9.5 prediction. I’m still not quite ready to validate the 49ers as a Super Bowl team, not at the +850 price. Kyle Shanahan has kept the offense efficient despite injuries, and Brock Purdy has been outstanding. The receiving additions are producing, the run game has multiple answers, and San Francisco is winning without relying heavily on turnovers or unusual kicking luck.
Still, context matters. The opener against the Rams was played abroad, Miami might be the NFL’s worst team, Arizona is rebuilding, and Denver has a strong defense without a punishing offense. The 49ers handled that stretch as a good team should. My problem with the hype is that the opening schedule hasn’t forced the Niners to show that their limited pass rush and vulnerable secondary can survive against elite quarterbacks.
Their Super Bowl price has shortened from 14-1 to +850. That move is a reflection of the current record more than actual substantial proof. If you have a preseason ticket, great. I wouldn’t buy +850 now.
NFL futures prediction: Rams UNDER 10.5 wins (+116)
The Rams being Super Bowl favorites and going under 10.5 wins can both make sense. The Super Bowl market is pricing their ceiling, with Sean McVay, a healthy Matthew Stafford and a roster capable of beating anyone in January.
The win total is about surviving 13 more regular-season games with almost zero wiggle room. The Rams are 2-2, so the over requires a 9-4 finish. That’s a demanding pace for a team facing a difficult schedule, with Stafford showing turnover volatility and Myles Garrett on injured reserve.
The number has dropped from 11.5 preseason to 10.5, so protection with the 11-win middle is lost. Still, the +116 keeps the under playable. The Rams can still be one of the NFL’s best teams, reach the playoffs and even win the Super Bowl while finishing 10-7. We know what the ceiling for the Rams can be. This wager is betting against regular-season perfection.
