In a surprise move, US President Donald Trump unilaterally paused daily strikes on Iran on Friday.
It is unclear what caused President Trump to halt direct strikes on Iranian infrastructure and how long this so-called temporary ceasefire would last?
Yet, there are signs that one must not read too much into this cessation of hostilities.
After all, the Iranian blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is in full effect.
On Saturday, the Central Command disabled two ship and redirected twelve others that didn’t comply with orders in the strategic waterways.
Despite recent talks with Oman, Tehran has also made it known that ‘No change has occurred in the transit situation in the strait.’
Additionally, the unannounced temporary ceasefire has also come into effect at a time when Iran has claimed to have killed over two hundred US personnel (not independently verified) and destroyed eleven American fighter jets, including an F-15 and a number of helicopters and drones during fifteen days of renewed fighting.
What the Western experts have, however, admitted is Iran’s high-speed, manoeuvrable reentry missile technology that hit American bases in Jordan and Kuwait by evading defence systems.
Meanwhile, Iran has also claimed to have degraded threats emanating from alleged separatist elements across the border provincial region in Erbil, Iraq.
On the other hand, Tehran has accused the US of killing its 55 citizens and leaving 629 others injured since June 27. It has also blamed the Pentagon for destroying a number of bridges, a train station and an airport. Something the Pentagon has refuted.
Simultaneously, Ansarullah of Yemen has also opened a major front. Their aggressive actions in Bab al-Mandab Strait are causing stress on the global supply chain.
The unilateral semi-ceasefire has also come into play when pressure to convince Iran to accept the US-Oman Southern route in the Strait of Hormuz is not yielding results.
An attempt to take a mediatory role by political newcomer Iraqi PM Ali Falih al-Zaidi has also failed flatly.
Last week, Zaidi had landed in Tehran after his maiden visit to the White House. In Washington, he was lauded by President Trump as a ‘brilliant leader’ who shared ‘tremendous chemistry.’
On the contrary, Iran dismissed the need for more intermediaries by blaming the ‘United States’ irrational, expansionist and hegemonic approach’ in addressing the issues.
After all, Qatar and Pakistan are already playing an active role since Oman is sidelined.
With this in mind, experts believe that it is highly likely that the current cessation of hostilities would only be used by the United States to recalibrate war strategy.
They view the tense status quo of strategic Strait of Hormuz as a major thorn.
“If President Trump was serious in stopping the war, he could announce opening up the naval blockade of Iran when he had first declared ceasefire”, said a diplomat who wanted to remain anonymous.
Tehran had made it known that it would not accept a blockade nor allow the Strait of Hormuz to return to pre-war conditions.
So, where do we go from here?
Well, experts believe that it is a lull before a full-blown war. President Trump intends to ‘finish the job’ despite a Washington Post-Ipsos poll that showed 68% of Americans believe that ‘this war is not worth fighting for’.
He may be right. Most Americans bother least about their country’s foreign policy. They care more about the credit cards charged at the gas stations or for buying groceries.
It is evident that they are paying out of their pockets. The current average per-gallon gas price has soared again to $4.1110 in the United States, which is not a good sign for Republicans campaigning for the midterm elections.
Will the outcome change the course of war?
“It is highly likely that the Iran war will continue irrespective of the midterm election results,” claimed another diplomat.
“If Republicans win, President Trump will seal it as an endorsement of his policies. If he loses, then there is nothing more to lose. So, better finish the job,” explained the diplomat who sought not to be named as he was not authorised to speak on this matter.
Continued deployment of military personnel and assets in the region is given as evidence to support this argument. Despite talks and MoU, Washington and its allies are also imposing biting sanctions on Tehran.
The designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation by the United States and UK is another indication.
It is noticeable that the IRGC is not only a military force but also the most powerful economic and political entity that works under the Supreme Leader. In retrospect, the whole system of governance in Iran is blacklisted.
“And that is why the clouds of war will remain thick over Tehran”. concluded the diplomat.
