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Man City’s failure to keep Shaw is a huge mistake, especially if she joins Chelsea

Manchester City may have just won the Women’s Super League (WSL) for the first time in a decade, but they have also potentially scored one of the biggest own goals in the history of the game by letting back-to-back Golden Boot winner Khadija “Bunny” Shaw leave on a free transfer — possibly to a direct rival.

A day after Arsenal’s 1-1 draw with Brighton handed City the title, sources told ESPN that Shaw is set to leave the club at the end of the season after a breakdown in contract negotiations. And Chelsea, who were dethroned from their six-year title winning streak, are favorites to pen the Jamaica striker’s signature.

At one stage, City were confident Shaw would remain at the club she once envisioned retiring at; she loves the team, the city and new manager Andrée Jeglertz. And her intention had always been to stay. In fact, she was close to signing a new contract in March before negotiations stalled. Sources told ESPN that the initial offer from City was far lower than the 29-year-old expected, and significantly less than what competitors were offering.

As talks progressed, it became increasingly clear that City would struggle to compete financially. Sources said Chelsea tabled a salary offer worth at least £1 million per year, but they also offered a longer contract — a decisive factor in Shaw’s thinking given that she is heading towards the end of her career — and the Blues’ willingness to hand out 4 1/2-year deals has become a major attraction for other elite players in recent years.

Shaw has also seen serious interest from the NWSL, while ambitious and well-funded London City Lionesses are believed to have submitted a contract offer of their own to her. But ultimately, despite Shaw’s desire to remain, City could not get a deal over the line and now her departure appears inevitable.

There are some obvious reasons for City’s hesitation to match the kind of money that Chelsea are offering. Shaw has struggled with injuries in recent seasons and has missed significant stretches of campaigns, while committing a yearly wage of £1 million to one player would place enormous strain on a wage structure that sources previously told ESPN is already inflating by roughly 40% year-on-year.

Yet none of that fully justifies allowing arguably the best striker in women’s football to leave for free. From both a sporting and commercial standpoint, failing to retain Shaw is a damaging outcome.

Financially, Chelsea’s reported offer would amount to roughly half of what Manchester City men’s striker Erling Haaland is estimated to earn in a month — a stark comparison — and that makes it hard to understand their reluctance not to match the expectations of such a vital figure.

Shaw has been central to their title-winning campaign, scoring 19 of City’s 58 league goals and is on course to win a third consecutive Golden Boot, and losing a player of that calibre immediately after winning the title (and ahead of a return to the Champions League’s new league phase) could significantly disrupt City’s ambitions to build a new era of dominance.

So what do they do next? Sources told ESPN that as Shaw’s departure became more likely, City began exploring alternatives. Signing Manchester United’s Elisabeth Terland, 24, is one option, with United reportedly open to offers, while ESPN has previously reported that Chelsea striker Mayra Ramírez has attracted interest from Real Madrid and, if Shaw arrives in London, that could open the door for City to move for the Colombia international.

Another route would be placing full faith in Australia forward Mary Fowler, while adding a younger rotational option, but that approach risks leaving City without the elite focal point that has defined their attack, particularly with the increased demands of European football looming.

The reality is that Shaw is irreplaceable. Few strikers in the world combine her clinical finishing, creativity, physical presence and technical ability. She can score with either foot, dominate aerially and create chances from nothing — those are qualities almost impossible to replicate in a single player.

And issues in the transfer market only amplify City’s challenge of replacing her. Elite forwards are in short supply, many are locked into long-term contracts, and release clauses are continue to inflate. That scarcity helps explain why Chelsea moved so aggressively and early to sign Shaw, even at 29.

According to sources, Chelsea’s pursuit of Shaw began months ago under former general manager Paul Green before his departure in February, with new Women’s Sporting Director Phil Radley continuing discussions. Plenty of clubs expressed interest, but Chelsea’s financial package and long-term vision stood out.

Chelsea have lacked something up front this season — which has resulted in them being off the title pace in the WSL and fail to reach the Champions League semifinals — and they have scored only 43 goals in the league, as opposed to 56 and 71 over last two seasons. Though they did claim the League Cup to boost spirits and face City in the FA Cup semifinal this weekend.

The club have been desperate for a focal point in attack, having struggled without a clear presence in the box all season. Ramirez has been out all campaign with injury, USWNT striker Catarina Macario missed several spells before leaving the club for San Diego Wave in March, while Aggie Beever-Jones also struggled with fitness.

Meanwhile, Sam Kerr — who became Chelsea’s top scorer this week — could also depart the club in the summer when her contract expires. She has been managing her minutes throughout the season after returning from a 22-month absence following an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury, but at 32 is not the force she once was.

So landing one of the world’s best forwards on a free transfer from a direct rival would represent extraordinary business from Chelsea, especially during a turbulent off-field period following Green’s exit, a poor run of form from last term’s “invincibles” and amid a very disappointing season for the men’s team.

For City, however, Shaw’s looming departure casts a shadow over what should have been an unqualified celebration. Their first WSL title in a decade now comes with the sobering reality that they may soon have to rebuild without one of the main players who powered them there.

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