We’re halfway through the NBA season, as every team except the Houston Rockets has played at least 41 games so far. But the championship race is getting more muddled, thanks to recent slumps from the preseason favorites in each conference.
On Monday, ESPN’s Kevin Pelton gave all 30 teams a midseason grade — with some of the preseason favorites failing at the halfway mark.
Today, Pelton teams up with ESPN analyst Zach Kram to debate the biggest midseason questions about signs of concern in Oklahoma City and New York, and the leading challengers and surprise contenders who might be able to take them down.
Jump to a question:
Are the defending champs vulnerable?
Who’s the favorite in the East?
Who’s lurking as a surprise contender?
What’s wrong with Paolo Banchero?
Are the defending champs vulnerable?
Kram: In looking ahead to the postseason, the NBA’s most important story of the past month is the Oklahoma City Thunder‘s slide from seeming invincibility to evident mortality, starting with their loss to the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Cup semifinals. The Thunder started 24-1 with a plus-17.2 net rating, ranking first on defense and fifth on offense, but they’re only 12-7 with a plus-6.4 net rating since, ranking third on defense and an unimpressive 14th on offense in that span.
There are several natural explanations for the Thunder’s relative swoon. The first is a shooting slump, as Oklahoma City ranks 28th in that span with a 32.5% mark from 3-point range. The schedule has also gotten tougher, as three of those seven losses came against the Spurs, though the Thunder got a measure of revenge with a win last week.
Injuries also haven’t helped. All-NBA wing Jalen Williams returned to the court from offseason wrist surgery, only to suffer a hamstring strain over the weekend. And in recent conversations with league sources about the champs, they’ve emphasized Isaiah Hartenstein‘s absence as critical. It wasn’t a coincidence that the Thunder fared much better against the Spurs last week, when fellow big Jaylin Williams returned from his own injury.
Even if the champs’ chances of setting the all-time wins record are all but gone, advanced metrics still believe that Oklahoma City is an overwhelming favorite to repeat: ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives the Thunder a 61% title chance, with no other team in double digits. Do you feel similarly? Or do you think there’s more signal than noise in their past month of good-but-not-great play?
Pelton: It’s not just Oklahoma City’s shooting slump that has caused them to drift off historic pace. Opponents have also shot 38% on 3s during the 12-7 stretch, fourth highest in the NBA.
If we look at GeniusIQ’s quantified shot probability (qSP) measure of shot quality, which factors in the location and type of shot, distance to nearby defenders and shooter ability, the Thunder rank third on offense since Dec. 13 and second on defense. That’s more or less the same as during their fast start, when they were second on offense and forced the toughest shots in the league defensively.
The difference is all shotmaking, something that tends to be far more random from game to game — as well as within monthlong stretches — and therefore less predictive going forward.
Now, that still might tell us something about Oklahoma City’s chances of winning the title. The Thunder did suffer through similar slumps in the 2025 playoffs, shooting 34% from 3-point range, a big reason they needed to go the distance to beat both Denver and Indiana. It’s possible that shotmaking variance and the risk of injuries to stars puts an upper bound on how high any team‘s title chances can be in the modern NBA.
DraftKings has Oklahoma City’s odds at plus-115, meaning the field is still favored to win over the Thunder. Would you agree with the BPI that Oklahoma City is better than 50-50 to repeat?
Kram: Like Vegas, I’d take the field over the Thunder at this point. It’s a narrow decision, but until Jalen Williams proves he’s healthy and that his shooting form has fully recovered — he has made only 30% of his 3-point attempts this season, with a much lower volume than last season — I’ll remain a tad worried about Oklahoma City’s secondary scoring beyond Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Moreover, the other important recent development that sways me toward the field is the Denver Nuggets‘ run during Nikola Jokic‘s absence due to a hyperextended left knee. The Nuggets are a surprising 7-4 without the three-time MVP, who has missed the past few weeks with a knee injury. If the likes of Peyton Watson (22.5 PPG during that stretch), Jalen Pickett and Zeke Nnaji can carry any of their recent gains over to the postseason, then Denver could be just as strong as Oklahoma City when fully healthy.
The BPI gives the two powerhouses a 45% chance of meeting at some point in the playoffs, the highest odds for any matchup in the league. That wouldn’t be an easy series for Oklahoma City, which needed seven games to beat a Nuggets team with much less depth last season.
Add in the Spurs, who are clearly capable of going toe-to-toe with the champs even though Victor Wembanyama hasn’t played more than 28 minutes in a game against them, and the Rockets, who pushed the Thunder to double overtime on opening night before a less compelling 20-point loss last week, and there are a plethora of contenders who could realistically challenge the Thunder in a playoff series.
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Pistons get a statement win over the Knicks
Cade Cunningham shines as he leads the Pistons past the Knicks in a blowout win.
Who’s the favorite in the East?
Pelton: Although the Thunder aren’t favored over the field to win the title, they do have better than even odds to win the Western Conference. The situation is different in the East, where New York (plus-275) has the best odds to reach the Finals, but BPI simulations favor the top-seeded Detroit Pistons.
When the Knicks knocked off San Antonio in the NBA Cup finals, it looked like they might be in a tier of their own out East. Yes, New York was still 2½ games back of the Pistons for the top seed but had shaved two games off the deficit since the end of Detroit’s early 13-game winning streak. And the Knicks had successfully navigated a nine-game absence for starting forward OG Anunoby.
A month-plus later, New York is now six games back of the Pistons and has fallen behind the Boston Celtics for second. The Knicks are actually closer to starting the playoffs on the road than they are to being the No. 1 seed. Worse, their underlying metrics aren’t favorable. New York’s plus-3.5 point differential ranks third in the East behind both Detroit and the surprising Celtics.
Should the Knicks still be the clear favorite to win the East? Or should we now consider them as part of the same tier as the Pistons and Celtics?
Kram: I’m not sure I ever considered the Knicks clear favorites to win the East; although I picked them to reach the Finals in my preseason predictions, I was much less confident about it than I was in my selection of Oklahoma City out West. So I’m not sure that my assessment of the Knicks as slight Eastern favorites has changed, even as they’ve slumped since winning the NBA Cup.
That doesn’t mean any other Eastern Conference team is, though, as all the contenders have warts of their own. Detroit has the East’s best defense but ranks 26th in 3-point makes and could really use another scorer at the trade deadline. (This was Jaden Ivey’s spot in theory, but he’s averaging only 8.5 PPG in reduced minutes.) Cade Cunningham’s offensive burden is still stretching him a bit too far because of a lack of other options, which could be a concern against locked-in playoff defenses: Among 18 qualified players with a 30% usage rate this season, Cunningham ranks 16th in true shooting percentage, ahead of only LaMelo Ball and Shaedon Sharpe.
Other contenders’ cases are chiefly contingent on the health of their star players. Boston might well be the favorite if Jayson Tatum returns at even a reduced version of his All-NBA self, but that will remain unknown until he plays his first game since tearing his Achilles last spring. The 76ers are intriguing, but it’s hard to predict what they’ll get out of Joel Embiid — who has been on a tear lately, averaging 27.5 PPG since Christmas — in the postseason. The Cavaliers can’t seem to jell, in part because of Darius Garland’s problematic toes and Max Strus’ extended absence. And the Magic are missing Jalen Suggs, while Franz Wagner just returned from an extended absence of his own.
The Knicks, of course, have their own glaring wart: a 17th-ranked defense that places them right next to the Indiana Pacers in the league’s defensive ranking. Is that as big a playoff concern as it appears on the surface?
Pelton: I don’t think it’s a fatal flaw. After all, last year’s Eastern Conference finals matched the No. 13 team in defensive rating (New York) against No. 14 (the Indiana Pacers). Like last regular season, the Knicks have seen opponents shoot a high percentage from 3-point range, something that didn’t translate into the playoffs until the Pacers caught fire in that series.
It’s also worth remembering New York and Indiana made those runs as the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds in the East, so the Knicks having a top-two seed isn’t necessary. But unlike a month ago, it no longer seems like swapping out Tom Thibodeau for Mike Brown has New York better equipped to make a deep playoff run, leaving the East wide open. I’m not sure who I’d pick today.
MORE: Three reasons the Knicks will — and won’t — reach the NBA Finals
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James Harden moves ahead of Shaq on NBA all-time scoring list
James Harden passes Shaquille O’Neal for ninth on the NBA career scoring list.
Who’s lurking as a surprise contender?
Pelton: This time a year ago, the Minnesota Timberwolves were behind both the Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings in the West standings, a half-game better than .500. Although Minnesota’s playoff run hardly came out of nowhere given the Timberwolves had reached the conference finals the previous season, it’s still rare to see a team emerge as a contender as late in the season as they did.
If we look at teams currently in the play-in spots of their respective conferences or below, does anyone stand out to you as a likely candidate for a long playoff run?
Kram: How about a team that’s not just out of the top six, but out of the play-in spots entirely halfway through the season? The Clippers are 12-2 since a 6-21 start, with wins over the Rockets, Pistons (twice), Lakers and Warriors.
More importantly, Kawhi Leonard once again looks like the two-way superstar who appeared near the top of MVP ballots a decade ago. Since he returned to the court on Nov. 23, Leonard is averaging 29 PPG on 50/40/94 shooting splits, while ranking first in total steals. Just during the 12-2 stretch, he’s all the way up at 32.7 PPG, which leads the league.
The Clippers’ biggest issue is that Leonard was sent home from the Clippers’ current road trip because of left knee irritation, which is never a good sign for a player with his injury history. Their second-biggest issue is that they dug such a big hole with their woeful start that they’ll most likely end up in the 9 vs. 10 play-in matchup, per the BPI. That outcome would limit their ceiling, as they’d need to win two elimination games just to earn a first-round matchup against the Thunder.
But in the 18% of simulations where the Clippers rise all the way to the 7 vs. 8 play-in game — plus the 3% of simulations in which they land a top-six seed — they could put a real scare into a championship contender. It was just last year, after all, that a team with most of the same players pushed the Nuggets to seven games in the first round.
MORE: James Harden voices belief in Clippers; ‘blessed’ to be in L.A.
Pelton: OK! I considered the Clippers but ran into the play-in issue, plus the fact that I’m more confident in the West’s top seeds holding serve in the first round. To me, that leaves an opening for Cleveland to still make a run in the East. Maybe I’m cheating a little since the Cavaliers are tied for sixth in the East, but they’re behind the Magic by percentage points and it feels like they’ve been written off prematurely in the excitement over newer contenders.
To go back to GeniusIQ’s measure of shotmaking over expected shot quality, the Cavaliers rank 26th on offense. Based on their track record, we should bet on Garland (36% on 3s), Lonzo Ball (26%), De’Andre Hunter (30%) and Dean Wade (32.5%) to all shoot better than they have thus far.
Meanwhile, Cleveland is also getting tough fortune in terms of opponent shotmaking, with teams outperforming their shot quality against the Cavaliers by the ninth-most in the league. Defensive shotmaking is a little more meaningful because some defenders are better than others, but consider that Cleveland was at the opposite end of the spectrum a year ago, with opponents underperforming their shot quality to the eighth-highest tune in the league.
Despite all that, the Cavaliers still boast the fourth-best point differential in the East. I’m concerned about Donovan Mitchell wearing down because of the heavy load he has carried due to Cleveland’s injuries, but if he can continue playing at a top-10 level, the Cavaliers could easily win a playoff series for a third consecutive year.
Kram: When we last conducted one of these back-and-forths, one of our biggest areas of disagreement was about which prospective Eastern Conference contender was best suited to make a run: Trae Young’s Hawks or Paolo Banchero’s Magic.
Well, since that debate, the Hawks have slid to play-in territory and traded Young for a meager return, while the Magic recently alternated wins and losses for 14 consecutive games, and sit in seventh place in the East with a 23-19 record. At least Banchero hasn’t been traded!
But Banchero is also one of the league’s most disappointing players this season, as a 23-year-old rising star who isn’t even on the fringes of the All-Star conversation. He has lost five points per game since last season, his efficiency remains poor despite a lower usage rate (which means he theoretically is picking his spots more judiciously) and the Magic once again have a better net rating when he’s off the floor, continuing a trend that has persisted across all four seasons of his career.
Still, Banchero is a former No. 1 pick who made the All-Star team in his second season. So is there any hope for a turnaround?
Pelton: By my “any chance” rule, the answer is undoubtedly yes. Banchero’s struggles in December coming back from a groin strain are already starting to fade. He’s averaging 22.8 PPG, 9.5 RPG and 6.1 APG on league-average true shooting percentage in January, as compared to 18.9 PPG on 42% shooting from the field in December.
When we discussed Banchero’s future offline last fall, I cited the example of Kevin Durant‘s poor adjusted plus-minus early in his career. Heading into Durant’s third NBA season, former Dallas Mavericks consultant Wayne Winston used that track record to conclude on TrueHoop that he would not want Durant on his team. Durant went on to finish second in MVP voting that season, when the Thunder were a mere 17 points per 100 possessions worse when he went to the bench.
Cade Cunningham, the No. 1 pick a year before Banchero, is another example of a scouting darling whose early inefficiency led statistical analysts to question his value. That history had me skeptical of a hasty judgment on Banchero, particularly given the Magic’s offense hadn’t supported him with much playmaking or spacing before this season.
Let’s unpack Orlando consistently playing better without Banchero. Taking the simple measure of the team’s plus-minus with the player on the floor, I found 42 players who entered the league since the 1999-2000 season and had a negative impact in at least 1,000 minutes in each of their first three seasons. This group includes three other All-Stars (Danny Granger, Zach LaVine and D’Angelo Russell) and several capable role players who helped their teams win like Durant’s Oklahoma City teammate Serge Ibaka.
If we extend that criteria to four consecutive seasons of the team having a worse plus-minus with the player on the court to start their career, the sample shrinks to 10 other players with no other All-Stars. Just one player in that group has a positive career impact in Jerry Engelmann’s 30-year sample of RAPM adjusted plus-minus: Landry Shamet.
Perhaps the closest comparison to Banchero in that group is Al Jefferson, who also put up monster combinations of points and rebounds (21.0 PPG and 11.1 RPG in his fourth season, back when scoring was about 16% lower than it is now), albeit without the playmaking and defensive versatility Banchero has shown.
This season’s story is not yet complete, and there’s still time for Banchero to have a positive impact on the Magic’s bottom line. But each additional season of data makes it more challenging to argue this trend is a fluke.
Kram: That’s not the most inspiring set of comps. Granger, LaVine, Russell and Jefferson have contributed to just three combined playoff series wins in their careers: Russell won two with the 2022-23 Lakers, alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and Granger won a first-round series with Indiana in 2011-12, before injuries waylaid his career. (This count doesn’t include when Granger was a deep reserve for the 2013-14 Clippers.)
Like you, I’m not ready to conclude definitively that Banchero is doomed to that sort of good stats, bad team trajectory. But there’s a reason that our ESPN voting panel dropped Banchero from third last year to 13th this year in our 25 under 25 ranking.
