When it comes to the effects of hostile climates — flood, fire and more — what matters isn’t just inherent risk, but rather the ability of a place to withstand that risk.
AlphaGeo, a geospatial A.I. company that analyzes and predicts location risk, ranked the resilience of 72 of the world’s largest cities. Some of those cities exhibit “a dangerous gap between their exposure and their capacity to cope,” the company stated in a report.
“Resilience equals risk minus adaptation,” said Parag Khanna, AlphaGeo’s founder and chief executive. “Everyone talks about resilience, but no one measures it.”
A good score in the company’s gauge of resilience was driven by two factors: low physical exposure to a checklist of climate risks (inland flooding, coastal flooding, heat stress, drought, wildfires and hurricane wind) and high adaptation to those risks.
In assessing adaptation, the company considered early warning systems, governance, policy responses and infrastructure like flood barriers and high-capacity drainage systems.
Such interventions can significantly mitigate the effects of climate change. For example, gas-powered electricity generators may fail because of stress from extreme heat or cold. But the resulting brownouts and blackouts can be remedied by maintaining a strong electrical grid.
Chicago was ranked the most resilient city. It’s in a temperate latitude, with good freshwater access and low hurricane risk. Adaptation efforts have included a long-term investment in robust infrastructure like the massive Deep Tunnel Project, which is meant to mitigate flooding and water pollution.
Many of the least resilient places were South Asian cities with extreme exposure to floods and monsoons to which they were poorly adapted. Ahmedabad in India, on a riverbank, faced the highest risk. In the United States, the highest-risk city was Phoenix, suffocating under intense heat.
Last week’s disastrous floods and mudslides in Nepal and Tibet illustrate a worst-case scenario.
“Accelerating climate change inevitably means far more release of water upstream,” Mr. Khanna said. “In that region, towns are naturally built in the traversable valleys, but those are also the lowest point — and water naturally flows downward along the path of least resistance. We are literally an insignificant obstacle to nature.”
