The world is likely to breach the 1.5°C global warming limit within the next few years, the United Nations has warned, stating the growing challenge of keeping climate change within the most ambitious target set by the Paris Agreement.
The warning comes from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) in its new report, “Limiting Overshoot – Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return,” released on Wednesday, September 2.
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UNEP said crossing 1.5°C is now widely considered unavoidable under current climate policies and emissions trends. But that does not mean climate action is futile. The goal, it said, should be to keep any period above 1.5°C as brief as possible and eventually bring temperatures back below the threshold.
UNEP calls this an “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway, where temperatures temporarily exceed 1.5°C before falling as emissions are sharply cut and carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said there are “no good outcomes” from staying above 1.5°C, stressing the need to cut emissions, strengthen climate resilience and keep the overshoot period as short as possible.
Even under the most optimistic scenario, global temperatures are expected to peak at around 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels, while other scenarios could see warming exceed 2°C, depending on how quickly emissions are reduced. The Paris Agreement aims to keep warming well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.
Crossing the threshold could bring more extreme weather and put greater pressure on ecosystems, glaciers and low-lying coastal cities, Reuters reported. The UN has also warned of higher risks of climate disasters, food and water shortages, biodiversity loss and climate tipping points.
The impacts will not be felt equally. Vulnerable communities are likely to struggle more to adapt as climate hazards intensify, while some changes could become difficult or impossible to reverse, UNEP said.
The agency called for countries to act on both emissions cuts and adaptation. Faster reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions could limit the eventual temperature peak, while stronger adaptation measures could help communities cope with the impacts that cannot be avoided.
The report’s broader message is clear: every fraction of a degree matters. Even if temperatures temporarily overshoot 1.5°C, keeping that peak as low as possible could significantly reduce the damage.
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