For many supporters, the Manchester United cycle appears to be back in full swing. An uptick in form under Michael Carrick renewed hope that the club could finally be moving in the right direction toward the end of the 2025-26 campaign, but it’s been followed by a difficult start to the new season and pressure is mounting on the head coach.
It was a similar story for José Mourinho, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, Erik ten Hag and Ruben Amorim. Moments of optimism — some briefer than others — and then a sharp downturn that led to an seemingly inevitable parting of ways.
United have sacked managers midway through each of their past two seasons — Ten Hag in October 2024 and Amorim in January 2026. Take it back further and managers have been dismissed mid-season in four of the past eight completed campaigns. The scrutiny on Carrick — who only signed a two-year contract as permanent head coach in May — has increased with United winning just two of their first seven games in all competitions.
A last-minute equalizer to secure a 1-1 draw at Fulham before the international break prevented a run of three defeats in a row but Carrick — and the club in general — is under the spotlight again.
The international break has been dominated by Manchester City and their legal case with the Premier League. United could end up with millions in compensation, but the most immediate — and welcome — consequence of the verdict breaking is that the spotlight has been focused on the Etihad and not Old Trafford.
Will that remain the case after Saturday’s visit of Tottenham Hotspur, another club in turmoil? Or do we have reason to doubt Carrick’s position as manager?
Is history repeating?
There’s certainly a familiar feel about it all. Ten Hag was sacked after United won four of their 13 games in all competitions to open the 2024-25 season. Amorim survived a start of two wins from seven, but was gone by January.
Solskjaer lasted 17 games in 2021-22 despite finishing second the season before. Mourinho also finished second in 2017-18, but was dismissed just 24 games into the 2018-19 campaign. It’s evidence of how quickly things can unravel at Old Trafford.
Carrick won 12 of 17 games last season after being appointed caretaker boss in January, suffering just two defeats and recording impressive wins over Manchester City, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool along the way. No Premier League manager won more points during the same period as United finished third to qualify for the UEFA Champions League.
But just like the achievements of Mourinho and Solskjaer, it’s been quickly forgotten. The defeat to newly promoted Hull City on the opening weekend put Carrick on the back foot immediately. The performance against 10-man Manchester City was poor, and losing to Brighton & Hove Albion in the Carabao Cup after leading 2-0 after 10 minutes was damaging.
Carrick, however, insists his team have been on the wrong side of some fine margins. Everton scored a stoppage-time equalizer thanks to an unbelievable strike from Ainsley Maitland-Niles and Erling Haaland‘s winner for City was wrongly awarded. Fulham’s goal was also a freak incident when the ball rebounded off Senne Lammens and hit Lisandro MartÃnez.
If Carrick’s theory is correct, then a run of good results might not be that far away.
What do the stats say about United’s form?
The short answer: It depends where you look. United’s players have taken a lot of criticism for a perceived lack of effort. Fulham ran an extra 6.5km (four miles) at Craven Cottage and Carrick’s team have also been out-run by Hull, Ipswich Town and Everton. After five Premier League games, United rank 20th of 20 teams for distance at high intensity, time at high intensity, number of sprints and amount of time sprinting.
When a team isn’t winning, these are damning statistics, but there’s no real correlation between running stats and results. Leeds United were second for total distance covered per match last season and finished 14th. Aston Villa ranked 16th and finished fourth.
The more important questions are whether a team is running in the right way and at the right times. With Carrick reluctant to criticize his players in public, only he will know if they’re following his instructions or not working hard enough.
United have been successful according to other metrics this season. They’re second for shots on target per match and accurate passes per match. They rank top for accurate crosses per match and number of touches in the opposition box. They’ve also hit the woodwork more than anyone else.
United are 12th in the table after five games, but rank fourth for expected goals (xG) and seventh for expected goals against. Just based on non-penalty xG difference, the stats say Carrick’s team should be fourth behind Arsenal, Brentford and Manchester City.
Money troubles
Many fans were left frustrated by the summer transfer business and believe Carrick has been left short. United were outspent by traditional big six rivals Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea. City, Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea all spent at least £100 million on a single player.
Sources have told ESPN that United’s pre-summer budget was around £120m. In the end, Andrey Santos, Youri Tielemans and Carlos Baleba were signed for a combined £155m, while around £45m was recouped in sales.
Financial figures released last week provide some insight into why funds were so limited. United paid off around £150m from a revolving credit facility between March and June, and also spent more than £60m to acquire land needed for their proposed new 100,000-seater stadium.
Club sources have told ESPN that, in terms of summer transfers, they “operated within our means.” United say they didn’t have the budget to push the boat out further, but there’s no escaping the fact that money is tight because of £1 billion worth of debt piled on by the Glazer family since their leveraged takeover in 2005.
Money could play a part in Carrick’s future. United need regular Champions League qualification to build up their finances, and club bosses will be keeping an eye on the trajectory of results in relation to a top-four finish.
Where do United go from here?
Carrick is under no illusions that United’s start has not been good enough. He can only hope that the long international break allows an opportunity for a reset.
The worry is that, on paper, United’s early games looked winnable. And once action returns in October, the next block of fixtures appears daunting.
It starts with an awkward game against winless Tottenham at Old Trafford. That’s followed by three tough away games against Atlético Madrid, Leeds United and Como before AFC Bournemouth at home and Chelsea away on Oct. 31. If United haven’t turned a corner by then, the Halloween nightmare headlines write themselves.
Club bosses have not shown any indication that Carrick’s job is under threat, but as usual, they will be guided by results. The pressure will ramp up with each bad result and poor performance, although United are in no mood to sack another manager after paying out close to £45m in compensation to dismiss Ten Hag and Amorim in the past two years. The only way to change it is by winning games.
Stories have already started to circulate in the Italian media that Antonio Conte would be interested. Eddie Howe, who has vast Premier League experience with Bournemouth and Newcastle United, is also available. United are known admirers of Kieran McKenna — out of work since leaving Ipswich in June — after speaking to the Northern Irishman when Ten Hag’s position was under threat in the summer of 2024.
Carrick will get time to turn things around. The question is: how long?
