Let’s make a Tarik Skubal deal!
With the best pitcher in baseball’s name being mentioned frequently in MLB trade deadline conversations, it’s time to find a home for the Detroit Tigers ace every contender will be coveting this summer.
We asked our MLB experts to put on their GM hats, taking the reins for one team and pitching their best realistic offer to land Skubal. From there, ESPN MLB draft and prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel evaluated each deal — dismissing those that came up short and finding the ones that could actually get a blockbuster deal done this summer.
Who had the best offer? Let’s dig in.
Not even close
The offer: RHP Luis Severino, LHP Jamie Arnold, OF Devin Taylor and OF Lawrence Butler
The A’s could get this deal done by putting one name in their package: Leo De Vries. That would essentially mean they traded Mason Miller for Skubal. Fun to think about but that’s all that is — a thought exercise. With no chance to sign Skubal long term, the A’s can’t give up their top prospect; nor will they trade lefty Gage Jump, who recently joined their major league rotation.
Instead, Detroit gets back a legit starter for next season in Severino (assuming he exercises his player option), the 11th pick in last summer’s draft in Arnold, a change-of-scenery candidate in Butler and an OF prospect in Taylor. — Jesse Rogers
The GM says: By my math, this offer is underwater — i.e., worth negative value. You’re basically dumping two contracts in Severino (prorated $20 million this year, a $500,000 trade bonus and a $22 million player option he’s extremely likely to pick up) and Butler (a little over $60 million guaranteed through 2031) while including a good prospect (Arnold, 50th on my most recent prospect list) and a decent prospect (Taylor). This offer likely wouldn’t lead to a second conversation. — McDaniel
Not bad, but …
The offer: OF Spencer Jones and RHP Carlos Lagrange or RHP Elmer Rodriguez
How can any potential major trade not include Yankees rumors? They last won the World Series in — checks notes — 2009. Of course they would want one of the top pitchers in the world even if their rotation appears to be one of the best already. Skubal would make it better.
Any debate must start with the slugging, strikeout-prone Jones, whom the Yankees might not have the patience to wait for, or perhaps OF Jasson Dominguez. One must go. What about one of the organization’s top pitching prospects in Lagrange or Rodriguez? That is a lot, but then again, so is Skubal. — Eric Karabell
The GM says: Unfortunately, even including all three of these prospects wouldn’t get it done because I got better offers than I was expecting from other teams. On pure, regular-season-focused, model-driven math aimed at avoiding a big mistake, this is a solid, defensible offer. That, however, is not the mindset the other GMs brought into the exercise. For reference, all three of these players plus Dax Kilby (that would make the full offer my No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, and No. 5 Yankees prospects) would put this in a dead heat for the best offer from this group of GMs. — McDaniel
The offer: RHP Santiago Suarez, RHP Brody Hopkins and RHP Michael Forret
With their outstanding start to the season, the Rays are in position to strike big. The rotation has pitched well — it’s fifth in the majors in ERA — but it is just 27th in innings pitched. With Ryan Pepiot out for the season, Tampa Bay has tried Griffin Jax as a starter, which weakens the bullpen. Adding Skubal to front a rotation with Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Nick Martinez would give the Rays a World Series-worthy group.
The Rays will be reluctant to trade outfielder Theo Gillen, who jumped from the No. 92 prospect before the season started to No. 30 in McDaniel’s updated top 50 in late May and has a 1.000 OPS at High-A Bowling Green. Likewise with catcher Nathan Flewelling, who is also raking at Bowling Green and is the hoped-for solution to the catching issue that has plagued the big league team for years. But the Tigers might be more interested in a package of pitchers anyway, especially ones who are close to the majors, so let’s give them three upper-level arms. Suarez is No. 3 and Hopkins No. 4 on the latest top-10 list for the Rays while Forret has great numbers at Double-A. — David Schoenfield
The GM says: This is a smart offer from the Rays because it includes three arms they acquired in other deals and they’re all right-handers the Rays can probably create/find/replace in the aggregate in one way or another despite being quite talented. Suarez and Hopkins are just outside of the top 100 for me, and Forret still could be a big league starter. It’s a solid package on pure math and roughly what I thought would make a competitive offer — that is, until these other GMs got much more competitive. — McDaniel
The offer: OF Luis Lara, 3B Andrew Fischer and RHP Coleman Crow
Milwaukee’s internal model would likely reject this, but owner Mark Attanasio should override it. Skubal could deliver a 2008 CC Sabathia-type stretch run, one that would narrow the gap between the Brewers and Dodgers in a potential playoff rematch. Skubal in Game 1. Jacob Misiorowski in Game 2. Kyle Harrison in Game 3. That trio would provide Milwaukee its clearest path to a pennant since 1982. — Paul Hembekides
The GM says: I like that this offer features two position players as headliners, with everyone in the upper minors or big leagues. With similar value to the Yankees’ and Rays’ offers, that puts the Brewers a bit ahead in this tier of similar packages. Ultimately, this still doesn’t include a likely impact player or top-100 prospect, so there just isn’t quite enough here to make me think we can negotiate this to a completed deal. — McDaniel
Now we’re getting somewhere
The offer: INF Pedro Ramirez, OF Kevin Alcantara and RHP Jaxon Wiggins
Trading Skubal doesn’t mean the Tigers would enter rebuild mode. Having signed Framber Valdez softens the blow (a bit) in the rotation, and they have young position-player talent to create a successful foundation in the AL Central.
Ramirez and outfielder Alcantara fit that window. Ramirez slashed .312/.395/.547 with nine home runs in 43 games in Triple-A before getting his first call up to the majors. Alcantara has huge power — he has 15 home runs in 41 Triple-A games this season — and the arm for right field at the big league level. Both could help Detroit immediately and build on a core featuring Kevin McGonigle, Riley Greene, Dillon Dingler and, eventually, Max Clark. Then there’s Wiggins, who has been sidelined since mid-April with elbow inflammation. That’s obviously a concern, but the right-hander’s stuff is explosive and the Tigers are thin on pitching prospects.
Ramirez (No. 1), Wiggins (No. 4) and Alcantara (No. 6) are three of the Cubs’ six prospects. And they make sense for the Tigers. — Jorge Castillo
The GM says: Now we’re getting closer; this offer is at a tier above the others thus far. Ramirez is a top-100 prospect, a position player who just made his big league debut. That’s what I’m looking to get in an ideal trade return. Alcantara is more of a role player but has debuted and comes with six years of control. Wiggins opened the season near the end of the top 100, but his command still looked reliever-y then he went on the shelf with elbow inflammation in April and hasn’t returned yet. This is a strong package that could conceivably be the Cubs’ offer in real life, and it would be one the Tigers could accept. — McDaniel
The offer: RHP Jared Jones, OF Jhostynxon Garcia and Round A competitive balance pick
I’m not sure who put me in charge of the Pirates, but I’m going for it right now. Our fans deserve it! Yeah, Skubal is a luxury for my rotation-rich roster in a regular-season context, but once he helps us get to the playoffs, I’m throwing Skubal and Paul Skenes at you every series. Good luck with that.
I’m overpaying to make this happen, though I suspect others will do the same. Dang it, 1979 was a long time ago. Let’s get this done because now I need to go trade for Mike Trout. — Bradford Doolittle
The GM says: This also seems like it could actually be a realistic offer if the Pirates decide to get aggressive, and it could be among the best offers Detroit would get. Jones could give me 3½ years of performance as a second or third starter at a cheap salary. He just got back from elbow surgery and his velo is up, so the payoff would be immediate. Garcia should start helping either this year or next on the role player/clear starter borderline, and the draft pick is exactly the kind of player I want. — McDaniel
Close … but no cigar
The offer: SS JoJo Parker and LHP Johnny King
Trading a pair of top-100 prospects for a player on an expiring contract might seem foolish, but bear in mind that the Blue Jays are defending American League champions who are surely planning to maximize their championship window. Their rotation has been obliterated by injuries, and a Skubal/Kevin Gausman/Dylan Cease/Trey Yesavage playoff quartet would be quite formidable.
For the Tigers, Parker gives them another high-quality infield bat — they can figure out later which of he or Kevin McGonigle stays at shortstop — and King, a big-time power arm. — Tristan Cockcroft
The GM says: These last three offers bring us into overpay land, just to calibrate what fans are expecting in reality versus what our GMs in this exercise are doing when their job security is not on the line. I don’t think Parker will be on the table in reality, but I can’t help but be excited that he’s here now. He’s the 33rd-best prospect in baseball with advanced feel to hit as well as infield fit and a little more raw power than I was expecting when he was drafted in 2025, though he’s more than a year away, so Tigers fans would have to wait a bit. King, the Jays’ third-best prospect, has been a personal favorite for a while but his command hasn’t taken the step I was hoping for, so he’s still a couple of years away from being big league relevant. There’s a lot of upside here, but it’s not the best offer. — McDaniel
The offer: C Ethan Salas, SP Kruz Schoolcraft, SP Bryan Balzer, RP Jeremiah Estrada (for Skubal and 1B Spencer Torkelson)
The Padres desperately need an ace and, in A.J. Preller, employ a general manager who covets stars more than anyone. It’s a perfect fit — until you consider how bare San Diego’s prospect cupboard has become in recent years. The Padres would have to part with their best young players for a player on an expiring contract, but they could justify that by also getting Torkelson, a failed first-round pick from a prior Detroit regime, to address another need at first base.
Salas has bounced back from injury to perform really well in Double-A, a major development for the Padres’ system. Schoolcraft, a 6-foot-8 left-hander who just turned 19, is widely regarded as their next-best prospect. Balzer is one of their fastest-rising ones. But the Tigers are going to try to win next year, too. They need something more immediate. That’s where Estrada, controllable through 2029, comes in. He is fourth in the Padres’ bullpen pecking order, but he can be the Tigers’ closer next season. — Alden Gonzalez
The GM says: I can’t say this is unrealistic because Padres GM A.J. Preller is involved and I was shocked that he traded (six-plus years of) Leo DeVries last season (for 4½ years of Mason Miller), so I can’t say it’s impossible that he’d deal Salas even if I think it’s quite unlikely. I point out the years of control because I think that’s why he did the shocking thing last year, and that’s obviously not a factor in this potential deal.
I believe Estrada has a bit more value than Torkelson, so I’m winning that exchange of big leaguers, and I can flip Estrada to a contender for more young players. Schoolcraft’s stock is down a bit due to his walks spiking, and Balzer also comes with some relief risk, but these are the Padres’ top two prospects and their sixth best. This offer is headlined by a potential star position player who is trending back up and is in the upper minors with a shot to debut next year. I don’t think the Tigers could say no to this in reality — unless another NL West team decides to drop the hammer. — McDaniel
The one that gets it done
The offer: RHP Emmet Sheehan, OF Zyhir Hope and SS Aidan West
Nobody has the combination of pitching and outfield prospect depth of the Dodgers, and that allows Los Angeles to provide a wholly unique package: a good major league starter, a top-50 prospect in Hope and a 19-year-old middle infielder who has scouts in the Arizona Complex League buzzing.
Sheehan would immediately slot into the Tigers’ rotation, Hope should be ready to join Riley Greene and Max Clark in Detroit’s outfield next year, and West adds necessary depth to the system. There are plenty of other options — Justin Wrobleski or River Ryan or Christian Zazueta as arms, Mike Sirota or Eduardo Quintero or Charles Davalan (but not Josue De Paula) in the outfield — but this version makes the most sense. It’s a wild overpay, but the possibility of three straight rings calls for that. — Jeff Passan
The GM says: Sigh. Every conversation I’ve had with sources about a potential Skubal deal starts with, “Well, if the Dodgers want to, they can/will …” because they have the options and the situation to make a deal pretty easy to put together, it just needs to be something Andrew Friedman wants to do. Luckily, I’m not dealing with Friedman or any real baseball executives in this exercise, so the bidding got a bit out of hand.
I prefer Wrobleski of that pitcher group because he’s left-handed and comes with two more years of control than Sheehan, so I might negotiate a bit to get the right mix of players here. Buzz over the past year or so is that Sheehan and Wrobleski were the two arms teams wanted from the Dodgers at the previous deadline and over the winter, but they wouldn’t part with either. Hope (34th on my top-50 update) is the best of the position players on offer — he has addressed his swing-and-miss issues this season, as a 21-year-old on pace for 30 homers in Double-A — while West is an intriguing young lefty-hitting infielder who might be above average across the board, but it’s very early.
On a deeper dive and negotiation, I might want to sub names in and out, but Passan is right: Even among three wild overpays, this one is the best. This could be the trade that launches the lockout, but the Dodgers have less pick/bonus capital than any team. It isn’t the CBA’s fault the Dodgers also have a good farm system. — McDaniel
