SECAUCUS, N.J. — The Toronto Maple Leafs won the NHL draft lottery Tuesday night, earning the chance to select Penn State phenom Gavin McKenna, who is expected to be picked No. 1.
“You need some luck, and we got it tonight,” new Maple Leafs general manager John Chayka said, a day after he was introduced by the team. “Long road ahead. Lots of work to do. But when you get a first overall pick, it’s a monumental opportunity.”
The San Jose Sharks won the second lottery for the No. 2 pick, beating the odds after having just a 5% chance of doing so.
The Maple Leafs had an 8.5% chance of winning the first lottery draw, the fifth-best lottery odds. They finished last in the Atlantic Division and missed the playoffs for the first time in 10 seasons. Should they make the selection on June 26 at the NHL draft in Buffalo, New York, it will be the third time Toronto has drafted at No. 1. The Maple Leafs selected forward Wendel Clark in 1985 and current star center Auston Matthews in 2016 — also in a draft held in Buffalo.
The draft lottery win ended a tumultuous 24 hours for Toronto. The team introduced its new front office Monday with Chayka, former GM of the Arizona Coyotes, joining Hockey Hall of Famer Mats Sundin, who was hired as a senior executive adviser of hockey operations. Their introductory news conference was filled with tension, as CEO Keith Pelley was peppered with questions about his hiring process and Chayka’s qualifications for the job.
Needless to say, getting the No. 1 pick was a vibe shift.
“It’s a fortuitous bounce,” Chayka said.
There was added drama for the Maple Leafs in this draft lottery. If Toronto’s pick was outside the top five, then it would have transferred to the Boston Bruins as part of the Maple Leafs’ trade for defenseman Brandon Carlo at the 2025 NHL trade deadline.
Though the draft lottery broadcast said that the Bruins would now get their pick of either the Leafs’ 2027 or 2028 first-round picks, that might not be the case. Multiple reports Tuesday night indicated that the Philadelphia Flyers believe they have a claim on the 2027 pick, having acquired a conditional first-rounder from the Leafs in the Scott Laughton trade last deadline. NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly told ESPN that he wasn’t prepared to make a ruling on who owns those picks quite yet, calling it a “complicated situation.”
The lottery sees a set of 14 ping-pong balls placed in a lottery machine, which allows for 1,001 combinations. Each of the 16 non-playoff teams is assigned a set of random four-number combinations. The lower a team finishes in the standings, the more combinations they’re assigned. The Vancouver Canucks, who finished with the league’s worst points percentage, had 185 combinations, or an 18.5% chance of winning the lottery.
The Chicago Blackhawks (135, 13.5%) and New York Rangers (115, 11.5%) also had over 100 number combinations.
There are two drawings in the NHL draft lottery. The first determines the No. 1 pick and the second determines the No. 2 pick. Teams can move up a maximum number of only 10 spots if they win the lottery; hence, only the 11 teams with the worst regular-season records can earn the No. 1 pick. If the winner of the first draw wins the second draw, there is a redraw.
Last season, the New York Islanders had only a 3.5% chance of securing the No. 1 pick entering the draft, the 10th-best odds out of the 16 teams. They won the draw and the chance to draft defenseman Matthew Schaefer, who is the favorite to win the Calder Trophy as NHL rookie of the year.
The first three numbers selected in the first draw were 7-2-11, which left eight teams alive for the top pick: Vancouver, Chicago, the Rangers, Calgary, Toronto, Seattle, Winnipeg and San Jose. The final number was 12, giving Toronto the No. 1 pick.
NHL commissioner Gary Bettman said that drama is what makes the live lottery work.
“It’s the uncertainty, right? I mean, you don’t know what’s going to happen until the ball pops up,” he said.
San Jose’s numbers were 11-4-3-7. With six teams remaining before the last ball was drawn, the Sharks had an 18.2% chance of winning.
General manager Mike Grier said he was “shocked” the team won the lottery. If San Jose keeps the pick, this will mark the fourth straight NHL draft in which the Sharks will have selected in the top four. They previously added forward Will Smith (No. 4, 2023), star center Macklin Celebrini (No. 1, 2024) and center Michael Misa (No. 2, 2025).
The Canucks entered the final draw of the night with an 18.2% chance of winning it. But the team with the NHL’s worst record will pick third in next month’s draft.
