HomeSportsFacts vs. Feelings: Dissecting eight potential lineup conundrums for Week 9

Facts vs. Feelings: Dissecting eight potential lineup conundrums for Week 9

I had a whole plan for this week’s introduction. It was inspired by an interaction that I witnessed between two Steelers fans at my local grocery store.

While palming avocados and examining Pink Ladies, I watched as a homesick Yinzer clocked a trio of trademark hypocycloids emblazoned on a stranger’s sweatshirt, eventually working up the courage to compliment the cozy fan gear. The two met eyes and immediately connected, each remarking with astonishment on the team’s winning record and their mutual uneasiness about rooting for a certain quarterback.

I didn’t want to hover but was admittedly tickled by how quickly their conversation evolved. As I ventured beyond the produce section, I could hear them kiki-ing about how now living in L.A. they both missed the seasons, but definitely not the snow. When I exited the store, they were still chatting in front of the bananas, though I wasn’t close enough to hear (what I imagined to be) the (juicy) details.

Then I came back home, joined two meetings, and was researching KC Concepcion‘s route participation numbers when I received an alert about the Cardinals’ change in quarterback. That got my attention. It also sent me down a Gardner Minshew II-focused rabbit hole, which culminated in my rapt viewing of his postgame news conference from Sunday’s upset win over the Cowboys. What an enigmatic dude. A uniquely charming blend of Southern swagger and late-night philosopher, Minshew is distinctly one-of-a-kind.

When asked how he gathered the gumption to rally the offense on the heels of Chad Ryland‘s missed extra point, the 30-year-old backup casually cooked. Without missing a beat (and while standing tall in what can best be described as a bonnet), he urged his teammates to, “Forget what happened before. Forget everything that’s happened to this point. Just keep going. Keep giving yourselves a chance.” Well, all right, all right, all right. And point taken.

So, I’m scrapping the Steel City Strangers and choosing, instead, to remind us all that we have the power to change our destinies at any given moment. And what better time than the halfway point of the fantasy season? Whether you whiffed hard on Omarion Hampton or struck gold with Jaylen Warren, there’s a lot of game ahead. Shrug off the past and lock in on the now. Only you can give yourself a winning shot.

Week 9 start-sit decisions

Dallas was bedeviled by Minshew’s magic, and Prescott failed to pounce on an exploitable defense. Still, the Boys signal-caller bailed virtual investors out with a rushing score, bringing his total above 19 fantasy points (QB9) in Week 8. Prescott’s fantasy production has remained remarkably consistent, averaging exactly 18.5 fantasy points per game thus far into 2026 and over the course of 2025. In fact, No. 4 has put up at least 18.5 fantasy points per game in six of his past eight campaigns.

Interestingly, his rushing floor has quietly improved this year, rising to 12.6 rushing yards per game compared to 10.4 last season. His seven rushing attempts against the Cardinals tied for the fourth most in any game of his career and marked his highest single-game total in five years. It’s a trend that sets up nicely at Indianapolis in Week 9, as the Colts defense has surrendered the fourth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks (178).

The game script also favors a heavy fantasy output Sunday. Prescott has been far more productive in victories, averaging 23.7 fantasy points in wins as opposed to just 15.4 in losses, and Dallas enters the matchup as a comfortable six-point favorite. Supported by a fully healthy complement of offensive playmakers in a game featuring a 51.5-point over/under — tied for the second-highest total on the Week 9 slate — Prescott carries top-eight positional appeal this week.

Welp. We need to talk about it. Because Jeanty’s sophomore effort hasn’t gone anything like his drafters had planned. While he remains the RB12 in fantasy points per game (16.5), he has failed to clear 11 fantasy points on three occasions and has registered single digit carry totals in back-to-back efforts. His 37% snap share from Week 8 was a career low, marking his first professional outing under 50%. Also alarming is the fact that three of his five lowest snap-share games have come over his past four games.

Jeanty’s virtual stock has, quite clearly, become reliant on his receiving production. Fortunately, he leads all RBs in targets (49), receptions (37), receiving yards (376) and receiving touchdowns (three, tied with Bhayshul Tuten). He also remains a high-value option in the scoring area, leading the position with 11 red zone looks. (Kenneth Walker III is the only other running back with more than six.)

Jeanty will need every bit of that passing game usage in a brutal Week 9 matchup against San Francisco. The 49ers defense allows just 3.5 yards per rush and has surrendered only three rushing touchdowns all season, with two going to running backs. Furthermore, the Niners have yet to allow a run of 20 or more yards in 2026, which is particularly concerning for a Raiders offense averaging a league-worst 1.2 yards before contact.

There is, however, a slight silver lining. Raheem Morris’ unit can be exploited through the air. The 49ers defense has invited the second-most running back targets per game (7.9) while ceding the most receptions (7.0), the most receiving yards per game (48.6) and the third-highest catch rate (89%) to the position. This aerial vulnerability keeps Jeanty relevant, but his dwindling tote totals paired with the difficult rushing matchup make him unlikely to finish as a top 15 fantasy running back this week.

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Why Dopp is encouraging fantasy managers to pick up Jonah Coleman

Despite the Costanza-like levels of gaslighting employed by Sean Payton, it is OK to get excited about a Broncos skill position player. Provided his name is Jonah Coleman. The rookie’s snap share has trended upward over his four outings this season, jumping from 6% to 68%, a mark that ranked 14th-highest among all running backs in Week 8.

He capitalized on that playing time by racking up 104 scrimmage yards on 15 touches, turning in 20.4 fantasy points, which was the eighth-highest fantasy scoring performance by a running back in Payton’s four seasons with Denver. While skeptics might dismiss this breakout as a one week anomaly, history whispers intriguing upside: Broncos running backs receiving 15 or more touches under Payton average a solid 13.7 fantasy points per game, making Coleman a player worth staying cautiously optimistic about.

A matchup against the Panthers only fans the flames of this optimism. Carolina’s defense has remained uber-generous to opposing backfields, surrendering the second-most fantasy points per game (28.3) to RBs. Regularly gashed via the ground, Carolina has allowed seven backs to cross the double-digit fantasy threshold, including four who recorded 20 or more points. In a landscape hampered by injuries (Jeremiyah Love) and bogged down by high-profile disappointments (Omarion Hampton), Coleman emerges as a beacon of hope, offering managers legitimate RB2 utility.

Conversely to Coleman, Collins has my cortisol levels spiking for all the wrong reasons. After commanding elite 30% and 27% target shares in his first two games, the vet’s volume has curiously receded over the past three weeks, cratering to a sub-20% target share and a painful 8.0 fantasy points per game. His red zone usage has also seemingly evaporated, as he absorbed just one of Houston’s nine red zone targets and a lone end zone look in that span.

The alarm bells sounded particularly loudly last Sunday when Collins registered a season-low 63% snap share and was held to a measly 6-yard performance, his lowest receiving output since 2021. Now that he has options, C.J. Stroud is actively spreading the ball around. In Week 8 alone, six wideouts each ran at least five routes, drew a target and caught a pass — a sudden committee approach that has lowered Collins’ near-term floor.

A swift rebound appears unlikely in a clash featuring an underwhelming 40.5 game total against a Chargers defense that has attracted the league’s second-fewest number of looks (109) to wide receivers. Given the volume squeeze and an uninspiring matchup, Collins sits outside of my top 15 fantasy players at the position.

McConkey stands on the other side — literally and figuratively — of the above matchup. Fresh off a bye and looking healthy last weekend, McConkey caught four of six targets for a season-high 86 yards, posting his second-best fantasy output of the year (12.6 points). Rather impressively, he achieved these numbers against a stingy Rams defense that has surrendered the fifth fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers.

Beyond the box score, McConkey’s underlying metrics also point upward. In Week 8, he logged a season-high 90% snap share, which was the 14th-highest mark among all wide receivers that week and just his second game north of 50%. Efficiency metrics further back his looming ascent. Among 86 wide receivers with at least as many snaps as McConkey (193), he ranks 10th with an efficient 2.57 yards per route run (YPRR). Every other wideout averaging 2.4 YPRR or better is producing at least 13 fantasy points per game, leaving McConkey (8.6) as a prime candidate for significantly positive regression. With volume, efficiency and health finally aligning, McConkey can be elevated to flex consideration in a favorable matchup against Houston this weekend.

Cooper’s Week 8 bagel was full of starch, but that doesn’t mean he can’t rebound after the crash. Despite failing to draw a single target in the Jets’ narrow loss to the Raiders, the rookie remained heavily involved, running 26 routes to tie Adonai Mitchell for the second most on the team. Crucially, Cooper led New York in both slot snaps (20) and slot routes (15).

That heavy interior presence sets up sweetly for the freshman’s trip to Arrowhead. The Chiefs defense funnels production inside, surrendering the fourth-most slot targets (10.6) and fourth-most slot receptions per game. Conversely, Kansas City often suffocates the perimeter, allowing the third-fewest targets (10.6), second-fewest receptions (5.1) and fewest receiving yards (63) per game to boundary receivers. Given this defensive wrinkle, Cooper steps right back into the flex conversation for Week 9.

It took until the midway point of the season, but it is thankfully time to finally discuss Chig. Washington’s TE1 has registered a snap share of at least 70% in three consecutive games. Furthermore, his 24 routes run in Week 8 ranked second on the team behind only Antonio Williams (27), while no other tight end on the roster ran more than two.

That secure role sets him up nicely for a Week 9 matchup against a Los Angeles defense that has invited the fifth-most targets to the position this season (67). For reference, the Rams just allowed nine tight end targets to the Chargers last week. While blocking specialist Charlie Kolar caught just one of his four targets, Oronde Gadsden capitalized by going 5-of-5 for 52 yards on 17 routes. With Terry McLaurin sidelined and the team likely forced into a passing script as 5.5-point underdogs, Okonkwo has the opportunity to flirt with double-digit fantasy points on Sunday.

The summer drumbeat established a quiet rhythm, but Dulcich’s sleeper song is finally beginning to sing. Logging five or more targets and bringing down four or more balls in three straight contests, Dulcich has quietly joined impressive company, as Trey McBride, George Kittle, Tucker Kraft, Brock Bowers, Tyler Warren, Dallas Goedert, Travis Kelce and Colston Loveland are the only players at the tight end position with four or more receptions through three straight outings.

With Dulcich recording a season-high 24 slot snaps in Week 8, and with his three red zone targets tied for the team lead, his utilization is coming into focus. Operating as Miami’s definitive intermediate weapon, he is the only Dolphin with five-plus targets to post an average depth of target between 4.0 and 9.0 (sitting at 7.0), carving out a role as the offense’s primary chain-mover.

He’s on the precipice of a potential breakout heading into a dream matchup versus Detroit. The Lions defense has been dismantled by tight ends, surrendering a league-worst 27.9 fantasy points per game to the position, with no other defense eclipsing the 21-point threshold. In seven outings, Detroit has given up 11 receiving scores to 10 tight ends, while allowing nine players at the position to clear the 13-point mark. This vulnerability is especially apparent near the goal line, where tight ends have already tallied 15 red zone targets and 12 end zone targets against the Lions. Rostered in under 5% of ESPN fantasy leagues, Dulcich has an upside nearly as robust as his availability.

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