What Trump losing power over Congress means for Iran, Ukraine and foreign policy

With Democrats taking control of Congress, U.S. President Donald Trump could intensify his focus on foreign policy in his final two years in office, while facing greater scrutiny over the wars in Iran and Ukraine, experts told CNBC.

Democrats will have a Senate majority, with the Associated Press forecasting they will flip seats from Republicans in Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas.

Democrats also won control of the House, giving the party greater scope to scrutinize the administration, shape spending and challenge Trump’s foreign-policy agenda.

“We are going to see a president that is somewhat constrained on matters of oversight and investigation, but on foreign policy, he does still retain a lot of latitude,” Laurel Rapp, director of Chatham House’s U.S. and North America Programme, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

Rapp said the Iran war was a “major issue” in this election cycle amid soaring fuel prices, food costs, and inflation. The war began when Trump launched joint strikes with Israel on Feb. 28.

“Republicans don’t really have an off-ramp here at this stage. We know the Democrats will seek to take votes in the House and the Senate to constrain the Republicans, to restrain the administration on Iran war powers. But whether that will bind the administration is another matter,” Rapp added.

She said that Democrats could exercise the “power of the purse” to limit spending on U.S. military and other Iran-related costs.

With control of both chambers, Democrats could pass legislation seeking to direct Trump to end U.S. involvement in the conflict. However, making such a measure binding over a presidential veto would require enough votes in Congress to override it.

In a Wednesday note, Berenberg’s Chief Economist Holger Schmieding predicted a final round of bombing in Iran, with Trump ultimately striking a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 2027, as voters feel the sting from high prices and fuel costs.

J.C. Lintzenich, visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, said that the president is not a “lame duck.”

“Remember that this election changes the Congress; it does not change the president,” Lintzenich told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.

“The President of the United States still has lots of power, lots of authority. We still have pending action in Iran. We still have an unresolved situation with Russia and Ukraine.”

He added that while Congress has changed, foreign policy is still executed by the president and his appointed officials.

“What we’ll now see is a little bit more congressional oversight, the application of funding, for example, Ukraine, that’s required by statute and law,” Lintzenich said.

Lintzenich said the outgoing Congress was “more willing to let the White House slide,” but Democratic control of both chambers would mean a more assertive Congress, using its Article I powers over legislation, spending, and oversight to hold the White House more closely to existing law and congressional requirements.

There could be “more trouble ahead” as Trump loses control of the Senate, Berenberg’s Schmieding warned.

“As a perennial attention seeker without a consistent long-term strategy, he may be even more eager to pursue dangerous geopolitical adventures,” Schmieding said.

“Congress will most likely not grant him the money for an expensive campaign similar to the Iran war… We probably have to brace ourselves for significant foreign policy noise in the two final years of the Trump presidency,” he added.

Schmeiding said that the Russia-Ukraine war will be the “tail risk,” as Trump will likely try to pressure “Ukraine to de facto surrender to Russian demands” — but this is an unlikely outcome as the President has lost support on the matter from his own party, he added.

Trump’s influence over the Republicans is likely to decline after the midterm defeat, especially as most Republicans, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, don’t share his sympathy for Putin, according to Schmeiding.

“That can help to contain the risk of Trump trying to impose an unacceptable deal on Ukraine. We thus see it as a tail risk rather than a likely outcome.”