Americans have wagered nearly $1.9 billion on the midterm elections, turning the battle for control of Congress into a massive betting market where some traders stand to make tens of thousands of dollars.
Among them is Noah Poser, a 28-year-old financial technology worker who has placed six-figure wagers on the elections and could walk away with a profit of up to $30,000.
Poser, who is betting on a strong Democratic performance, plans to spend election night monitoring results from a friend’s watch party in New York.
His approach is based on mathematical models rather than political loyalties, with bets placed months ago when the odds were more favourable.
Another trader, 22-year-old Florida State University student Yadin Eldar, has taken a different approach, backing Republican candidates in races where he believes their chances have been underestimated.
Eldar admitted that watching the numbers change can be stressful, saying he sometimes makes impulsive decisions when the markets move against him.
The surge in political betting has been driven by platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket, which allow users to trade contracts based on election outcomes.
A Washington Post analysis found that nearly $1.9 billion in trading activity had been recorded across the two platforms by Monday evening, with Kalshi accounting for approximately $1.3 billion.
The figures represent trading volume rather than the amount of cash individuals have deposited.
The platforms gained widespread attention during the 2024 presidential election, when their odds pointed towards Donald Trump’s victory.
However, recent forecasting failures have raised questions about their reliability.
For traders, the stakes extend beyond predicting which party controls Congress. Election night could also determine whether months of speculation end in substantial profits or painful losses.
