Sometimes, it takes a while to see how the things are going to shake out in this new NBA season. Other times, it is plainly obvious that things are not as they seemed before the season officially tipped off, whether that means less playing time, a drop in production, or changes under a new coaching staff.
With that in mind, we asked our fantasy basketball experts Andre Snellings, Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Steve Alexander, Jim McCormick and Michael F. Florio to identify the biggest preseason assumptions that are already being challenged.
Here’s what has stood out to them after one week of NBA action.
Tyrese Maxey, other 76ers thriving despite Philadelphia’s star power
Moody: The concern in Philadelphia was that too many stars would eat into Maxey’s production. LeBron James and Jaylen Brown joined Joel Embiid, but Maxey averaged 50 fantasy points per game through four games as the Sixers opened 3-1. Brown contributed 36.0 fantasy points per game, and Embiid recorded a 28-point triple-double against the Milwaukee Bucks last Saturday. There will be nights when someone sacrifices touches, but Maxey hasn’t looked like the player making that sacrifice.
Florio: While LeBron and Embiid have already missed a game and that was a big fear, they have performed extremely well so far, especially in Roto formats. Maxey is a Top 5 player in all formats, while Embiid and Brown are each averaging over 20 PPG. LeBron James continues to contribute across the board. It’s still early, but fading them in fantasy is one early season regret.
Giannis’ arrival is already affecting Adebayo’s production
Karabell: Perhaps I hadn’t considered the potential statistical downside of what superstar Giannis Antetokoumpo joining the Miami Heat would mean for longtime underrated star Bam Adebayo. So far, the fit looks awkward. Adebayo averaged 20.1 PPG and 10 RPG last season, continuing a seven-season run of excellence. Is that over now? Bam is off to a terrible start (11.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 40% FG, 61.5% FT), and oh, Miami is winless. These numbers must improve, but how much? Is Bam still a top 50 fantasy option? Maybe so, maybe not.
Alex Sarr will have to wait to reach new heights
Snellings: Sarr is unlikely to approach, let alone build on, his breakout campaign from last season if the Washington Wizards are fully healthy. After averaging 16.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG and 2.0 BPG last season, he is currently averaging 8.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 1.3 BPG in this one. With Anthony Davis occupying all the spaces Sarr prefers but at much higher volume, Sarr just doesn’t have the shots (6.5 FGA this season, down from 13.7 FGA last year), rebounding or shot-blocking opportunities to approach what he did last season. And number one overall pick AJ Dybantsa hasn’t even played yet this season, so once he’s in the fold Sarr may get even fewer looks.
Jabari Smith Jr. is showing signs of another leap
McCormick: I was under the impression that Smith had plateaued as an NBA contributor. It’s easy to forget Smith was the No. 3 overall pick in his 2022 draft class, with a prospect profile that hinted at potentially special 3-and-D potential. The defense has been impressive and improving throughout, while the offensive side of his game appeared stagnant over recent seasons. With a real spike in 3-point volume this season, Smith’s growth as a multi-level scorer is a key factor in Houston’s potential to enter the contending class. In fantasy terms, Smith is a solid player to target, as this ascent appears sustainable.
Snellings: Vucevic’s run of consistent fantasy production appears to be over. He rejoined the Orlando Magic this offseason, and the thought was that he would battle Wendell Carter Jr. for minutes and production at center. Instead, thus far Carter is averaging 30.7 minutes per game versus Vucevic’s 8.0 MPG. And Carter is off to a great start, arguably the best of his career. Add in that, at age 27, Carter fits on the career arc of the other Magic stars (Paolo Banchero: age 23, Franz Wagner age 25, Desmond Bane age 28) much better than the 36 year-old Vucevic. Barring injury, it’s hard to imagine Vucevic’s role expanding into fantasy relevance this season.
Early injuries are already testing fantasy managers
Alexander: I came into this season fully aware of how many NBA players deal with injuries and missed games, but I don’t think I was prepared for what we saw in Week 1. Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Jaren Jackson Jr., Kawhi Leonard, Cason Wallace, Lauri Markkanen, Kristaps Porzingis, Kon Knueppel, Ivica Zubac and Yves Missi are all out with major injuries and some of them may not even play again this season. Fantasy managers are going to have to make some tough drop/hold decisions going forward, and we still have 24 weeks to go.
