Well, we did our best. And our best was actually pretty good.
In last year’s prediction of the teams that could win 30 games, ESPN’s 17 picks averaged 27.9 wins. Eight of the 11 squads that hit the 30-win number by season’s end were featured on our preseason list. We also chose nine squads that didn’t reach the mark. Some of those misses involved key injuries — see: Texas Tech and BYU. Others fell in the Mark Pope category of teams that failed to meet expectations.
The 30-win threshold is significant.
Eight of the past 11 national champions have amassed 28 wins by Selection Sunday. Last year, Michigan had 31 victories ahead of Selection Sunday and finished the season with 37. Flirting with 30 victories by the second weekend of the NCAA tournament is usually a solid indicator of future champions.
This year’s batch is a bit harder to predict because of the eligibility uncertainty affecting some of America’s best teams. So for this exercise, we’re going to assume every key player is available for the entire season. What else can we do at this point?
Jon Scheyer may not have a Cameron Boozer or Cooper Flagg, but this team is just as capable of winning 30-plus games and a national championship as those Boozer and Flagg squads were. It’s not wise to make assumptions after exhibition games, but Duke’s 39-point win over a preseason top-10 Tennessee team and six-point victory against Kansas were early statements. Former All-Big Ten standout John Blackwell and returnee Patrick Ngongba II will be anchors for a deep, balanced lineup this season.
If the full squad is allowed to compete this season, Kansas will have a chance to collect coach Bill Self’s third national title. Former Purdue star Trey Kaufman-Renn is currently eligible through a preliminary injunction, as are Kansas returnees Melvin Council Jr. and Tre White. That trio, next to No. 1 recruit and projected top 2027 NBA draft pick Tyran Stokes, can help the Jayhawks make a deep run in March.
Last season, Brad Underwood’s team earned its first trip to the Final Four in 21 years. Unlike that 2004-05 Final Four squad that lost three players to the NBA draft, last season’s core is back, including preseason AP first-team All American David Mirkovic, is back for another shot at the title. If Mirkovic can return from a foot injury that has sidelined him since August and play the bulk of the season, 30 wins is certainly reasonable for a team that won 28 games last season.
Fifth-year prospect Seth Trimble had 12 points for Louisville in an 89-83 exhibition win at Kansas last week, and his legal clearance will be important for coach Pat Kelsey’s Cardinals this season. But the emergence of five-star prospect Obinna Ekezie Jr. (16 points, eight rebounds, five blocks) and Jackson Shelstad (23 points) in that game also showed that Louisville can thrive with or without Trimble. If the Cardinals stay healthy, they can flirt with the 30-win mark.
The work ethic of projected top-five 2027 NBA draft pick Caleb Holt has been noted by Arizona staffers this offseason. Holt, Motiejus Krivas (preseason Big 12 player of the year) and Ivan Kharchenkov have helped a 36-win team last season reload after the loss of 2025-26 Big 12 player of the year Jaden Bradley and first-round picks Brayden Burries and Koa Peat. If Clemson transfer RJ Godfrey is eligible, Arizona’s shot at 30-plus won’t be a pipe dream.
Coach Todd Golden re-signed Denzel Aberdeen, who was on the floor with the Gators at the final buzzer of their national championship win in 2025, and brought continuity to go along with the most talented roster in the country. Thomas Haugh is a Wooden Award contender and Rueben Chinyelu and Alex Condon are all-SEC candidates. Returning players have said Aberdeen, eligible with a preliminary injunction, has added chemistry the team couldn’t find a year ago.
Solo Ball, a double-figure scorer, will miss the season due to a wrist injury, and Dan Hurley’s former lead assistant Luke Murray is now the head coach at Boston College. But UConn’s hero in the Elite Eight win over Duke in March, Braylon Mullins, and preseason Big East player of the year Silas Demary Jr. are the leaders of a group with legitimate potential to reach their fourth national championship game in five years.
Darrion Williams (led the team to the Elite Eight in 2025), Donovan Atwell (46% from beyond the arc last season) and Jamichael Stillwell (11.6 points per game and 8.2 rebounds per game at UCF) are all fifth-year players who will need the courts to secure a chance to play all year. If this group gets that opportunity and All-American JT Toppin plays at least half the season after tearing his ACL in February, Texas Tech could hit the 30-win mark.
Sean Miller has assembled a group in Austin that could win 30 games for the first time since 2007-08 under Rick Barnes. Isaiah Johnson (Colorado) and David Punch (TCU) were two of America’s top transfers. Matas Vokietaitis also returns after last year’s fabulous effort in the NCAA tournament, and Marcus Spears Jr., the former No. 1 player in the 2027 class, is in the mix, too.
No team in the country won 30 games in a more unheralded fashion than the Cavaliers, who entered last season unranked. This year’s ACC preseason player of the year, Thijs De Ridder, is back this season, as are Sam Lewis, Chance Mallory and Johann Grunloh. That’s four of the top-six scorers from last season’s squad. It’s worth noting that this season’s schedule will be tougher — the Cavaliers play preseason AP No. 2 Duke twice during the ACC season after facing the Blue Devils once last season — making the road to 30 wins more challenging.
The arrival of fifth-year prospects Javon Bennett (15.8 points per game at Dayton) and Xaivian Lee (11.6 points per game, 4.2 assists per game at Florida) raised expectations for this Gonzaga squad. If that duo stays eligible — along with Chauncey Wiggins, whose climb toward eligibility is much more uphill — it will boost a team that might have the best defender west of the Mississippi in Arizona State transfer Massamba Diop (13.6 points per game, 5.8 rebounds per game, 2.1 blocks per game) and an All-America candidate with Braden Huff.
After orchestrating the best turnaround in Division I history from seven wins in 2024-25 to 26 last season, coach Jai Lucas signed a multiyear extension in the offseason. The Hurricanes might have to offer him another extension if a team led by returnee Shelton Henderson, five-star recruit Caleb Gaskins, fifth-year star Malik Reneau (All-ACC first team last season) and Villanova transfer Acaden Lewis goes on a deep run. Reneau’s eligibility is a factor in that mission.
Rick Pitino continues to receive good news. Quinn Ellis, one of the top young prospects in Europe, has gained NCAA clearance. Babacar Sane, who played in the G League two years ago, is also eligible. Ditto for Keyshawn Hall (19.3 points per game and 7.1 rebounds per game at Auburn). If this group, along with Baylor transfer Tounde Yessoufou and returnee Ian Jackson, is the one Pitino gets to coach all season, 30 wins might be underestimating St. John’s.
Houston has lost four starters from last season, a group that included lottery pick Kingston Flemings. Returnee Mercy Miller (5.0 points per game) and LSU transfer Dedan Thomas Jr. (15.3 points per game and 6.5 assists per game) are a solid duo. And Kelvin Sampson is coaching this team. The same Sampson who has won 30 games five seasons in a row and six of the past eight seasons. Even if this squad has to reset, Sampson’s track record is why its on this list.
Every time Tom Izzo has won 30 games at Michigan State, he has had a star point guard. In 1999 and 2000, All-American Mateen Cleaves was his leader. Kalin Lucas, the Big Ten player of the year, did it in 2009. Cassius Winston, a two-time All-American, reached the 30 mark in 2018 and 2019. Now, Jeremy Fears Jr., who led the nation in assists last season, could guide Michigan State to 30 or more wins for the second time in his career.
While High Point is mid-major in affiliation, the Panthers reportedly have a payroll over $5 million. That big budget and the NCAA tournament win over Wisconsin in March helped this group retain Cam’Ron Fletcher (13.2 points per game and 7.1 rebounds per game) and add transfers Jason Rivera-Torres (15.8 points per game at Monmouth) and Isaac Garrett (13.7 points per game at Oakland). That’s not just a contender in the Big South. That is also the most dangerous Cinderella in the field.
Saint Louis’ squad was already an Atlantic 10 contender before reigning A-10 player of the year Robbie Avila (12.8 points per game and 41% on 3-pointers) received a temporary restraining order to rejoin the team on Oct. 23. Before Avila was cleared, Trey Green and four others players who averaged at least nine points for the Billikens last season already had returned. If it stays intact, Saint Louis can top last year’s 29-win tally.
