Welcome to The Playbook for Week 8, which kicks off Thursday night with a game between the Panthers and Packers.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start advice, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
CAR-GB | BAL-BUF | TEN-CIN | ARI-DAL | MIN-DET | LV-NYJ | CLE-PIT
ATL-TB | IND-JAX | LAC-LAR | KC-DEN | NE-MIA | PHI-WAS | CHI-SEA
Projected score: Packers 25, Panthers 22
Lineup locks: Chuba Hubbard, Josh Jacobs, Tetairoa McMillan, Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, Jalen Coker, Tucker Kraft
Fantasy Scoop: Jacobs made his 2026 debut on Sunday and was busy, playing on 35 snaps (54%) and totaling 11 carries and seven targets. The veteran back didn’t do much on the ground (36 yards) but had the most productive receiving game of his career (5-55-1 on seven targets). It’s hard to imagine Jacobs will be a consistent factor in the passing game as he totaled just 36 catches during both of his first two seasons in Green Bay and now has three career receiving TDs. Still, his rushing workload will only expand and he’s always going to be a factor near the goal line (31 TDs in 33 games with the Packers).
Jacobs can be valued as a fringe RB1 in an excellent Week 8 matchup against a Carolina defense that sits top three in yards, TDs (nine) and fantasy points allowed to RBs. Backs are averaging a league-high 5.2 yards per carry against the Panthers.
Over/under: 46.7 (9th highest)
Win probability: Packers 58% (9th highest)
Projected score: Bills 33, Ravens 30
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, James Cook III, Zay Flowers, DJ Moore
Fantasy Scoop: Henry remains a lineup lock despite falling short of 6.0 fantasy points in consecutive games for the first time since Weeks 10-11 of the 2023 season (while he was still with the Titans). Henry’s very limited receiving role leads to the occasional dud — he’s been held under 12.0 fantasy points nine times in 24 games since the start of last season — but that’s more than offset by huge games thanks to his elite rushing and scoring ability (19-plus points in nine of those 24 outings).
Henry opened the 2026 season with 15.9-plus fantasy points in five consecutive games and, though his career-low 3.9 yards per carry is mildly concerning, he’s a candidate for a leap forward with Jackson expected back under center. He’s in an especially good spot this week against a Buffalo defense that sits dead last in EPA and that has allowed nine TDs (second most) and the third-most fantasy points to running backs. Buffalo has surrendered at least one RB score in all six games.
Over/under: 63.1 (Highest)
Win probability: Bills 58% (10th highest)
Projected score: Bengals 29, Titans 14
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Carnell Tate
Fantasy Scoop: Tate is a strong bet for shadow coverage courtesy of DJ Turner II this week. On Sunday, Zay Flowers was able to produce the first game of over 15 fantasy points by a wide receiver against Cincinnati this season, but note that Flowers did nearly all of that damage while away from Turner’s coverage — he had one catch for 6 yards on 10 matchups with Turner.
Flowers (54% slot) benefits from a versatile role, whereas Tate (28% slot) will see Turner on nearly three-quarters of his routes. The 14 receivers Turner shadowed in 2025 averaged just 8.8 fantasy PPG and he’s also limited Emeka Egbuka (11.3 points), DK Metcalf (12.1) and Parker Washington (2.0) already in 2026. Tate should be downgraded in what will be one of his toughest matchups of the season.
Over/under: 42.5 (11th highest)
Win probability: Bengals 94% (Highest)
Projected score: Cowboys 33, Cardinals 21
Lineup locks: Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Michael Wilson, Trey McBride
Fantasy Scoop: Dak Prescott‘s output has been a mixed bag thus far. He’s delivered just two top-10 fantasy outings: a 29.8 effort against Washington in Week 2 and 23.3 points at Philadelphia on Monday night. Those two strong outings bookended a four-game stretch in which Prescott had as many interceptions (four) as he did passing TDs (exactly one in each of the four games). Prescott added some value with his legs early on (59 yards on 10 carries during his first three games), but that has dipped over the past four weeks (22 yards on six carries).
The good news is that Prescott is coming off a good game, leading a very fast-moving and pass-first offense, and is set up with a terrific Week 8 matchup against an Arizona defense that has allowed 19 total TDs and the second-most QB fantasy points. Prescott is a strong streaming option.
Over/under: 54.3 (2nd highest)
Win probability: Cowboys 86% (3rd highest)
Projected score: Lions 26, Vikings 24
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta
Fantasy Scoop: T.J. Hockenson caught four out of five targets for 35 yards and one touchdown against the Colts on Sunday. It was yet another strong performance for the veteran tight end after he posted a 13-119-0 receiving line on 13 targets in his last full game with Kyler Murray under center (Miami, Week 4), though it’s worth noting that Jefferson was sidelined for that game. Of course, even if we exclude that Week 4 game, Hockenson is handling a solid 20% target share, which has allowed a pair of 13.5-plus-point efforts.
Just like when he was in Arizona, Murray hasn’t been shy about his attraction to throwing to tight ends, so Hockenson is very much back in the TE1 mix. That’s especially the case this week against a Detroit defense that has allowed the most targets, catches, yardage, TDs (10!) and fantasy points to tight ends.
Over/under: 49.6 (4th highest)
Win probability: Lions 56% (13th highest)
Projected score: Jets 28, Raiders 26
Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Brock Bowers
Fantasy Scoop: Geno Smith is fresh off a strong fantasy performance in which he completed 23 of his 30 passing attempts for 287 yards and three touchdowns. Smith took advantage of a shaky Miami pass defense, and, not coincidentally, his only other good fantasy outing of the season came in an even better matchup (26.0 points against Detroit in Week 3). Aside from those two games, however, Smith is averaging an ugly 11.1 fantasy points per game — with four of those five outings coming against defenses ranked 21st or lower in QB fantasy PPG.
Although it’s clear that Smith isn’t close to being an every-week fantasy option, the good news is that he has another very good matchup this week. The Raiders have allowed the sixth-most passing TDs (16) and fifth-most QB fantasy points this season, with Justin Herbert (Week 2) the only QB who failed to reach 16.5 points against them. Smith’s lack of rushing (22-42-0 this season) limits his output, but he’s a terrific Week 8 streamer in a “revenge game” against Las Vegas.
Over/under: 53.2 (3rd highest)
Win probability: Jets 57% (12th highest)
Projected score: Steelers 23, Browns 16
Lineup locks: Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, Denzel Boston
Fantasy Scoop: Dylan Sampson was busy in his return from injury on Sunday. The second-year back played on 47% of offensive snaps, totaling 45 yards on six carries and 32 yards on three targets. Sampson is unlikely to see enough work for stand-alone fantasy value, but it appears he’ll remain a thorn in the side of Quinshon Judkins‘ fantasy value. Judkins was limited to a season-low 51.5% snap share on Sunday and, while he was highly productive as a rusher (17-96-2), he was limited to a season-low one target (after averaging 4.0 in five games with Sampson sidelined).
Judkins has already been inconsistent (21-plus fantasy points in two games, but under 10 points in the other four) and is struggling with rushing efficiency (3.5 YPC), so Sampson taking on primary passing-down work is less than ideal. On the plus side, Judkins has handled 17-plus touches in five consecutive games and won’t be short on carries and goal line work. Though he did put up 21.6 fantasy points against Pittsburgh in Week 4, Judkins is best valued as a fringe RB2 in this week’s rematch. The Steelers have allowed only four TDs and 3.6 yards per carry to RBs this season.
Over/under: 39.2 (Lowest)
Win probability: Steelers 73% (7th highest)
Projected score: Buccaneers 25, Falcons 23
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Bucky Irving, Drake London, Emeka Egbuka
Fantasy Scoop: Michael Penix Jr.’s season is off to a terrific start, as the third-year QB sits ninth in QBR and has nine passing TDs to just one interception. Penix has thrown for at least 200 yards in all five games and now has exactly three passing TDs in two straight contests. Despite the strong play, Penix isn’t yet on the starting radar in fantasy, with the main culprit being a lack of rushing output. Penix has a total of only 4 yards on 12 carries and now has 80 yards and a pair of scores on his 40 career rushing attempts. Annoyingly, Penix has actually lost fantasy points due to rushing in three out of five games this season.
Penix has cleared 20 fantasy points in consecutive games but was held below 15 points during his prior three outings and will thus be on the streaming radar only when the matchup is elite. That won’t be the case this week against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the third-lowest EPA against the pass and the sixth-fewest QB fantasy points. No QB has reached 20 fantasy points against the Buccaneers this season.
Over/under: 48.6 (6th highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 58% (11th highest)
Projected score: Jaguars 29, Colts 19
Lineup locks: Trevor Lawrence, Bhayshul Tuten, Jonathan Taylor, Parker Washington, Tyler Warren
Fantasy Scoop: When we last saw the Jaguars (Week 6), Jakobi Meyers handled 10 targets, which matched his highest total in 16 games since joining the team midway through last season. Meyers turned the usage into a 5-83-0 receiving line. It was a solid outing, but it’s just another “up” in what has been an up-and-down season. Meyers has reached 12 fantasy points in three games but has fallen short of 6.5 in the other three outings. He’s seen eight-plus targets twice but has a total of 10 targets in the other four games.
Meyers’ 15.6% target share is his lowest since he was a situational rookie in 2019 and, with so many mouths to feed in Jacksonville, that number may not rise much moving forward. The Colts have quietly allowed the fifth-fewest pass completions this season — and only two receivers have reached 14.5 fantasy points against them (Zay Flowers, Carnell Tate). Meyers is best valued as a low-ceiling WR3/flex.
Over/under: 48.2 (8th highest)
Win probability: Jaguars 83% (4th highest)
Projected score: Rams 27, Chargers 13
Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua
Fantasy Scoop: It’s been a rough start to the 2026 season for top Chargers receiver Ladd McConkey, but it’s worth noting that he’s been productive when healthy. McConkey came out of the gate strong with a 5-82-1 receiving line on seven targets in Week 1 despite missing half of that game due to injury. He was limited to 45% of Los Angeles’ offensive snaps the following week (3-35-0 on three targets) before rebounding with a 4-66-0 showing on five targets in Week 3 — his only full game of the season thus far.
McConkey has totaled just 17 yards on three targets over his last two games, but he ran a grand total of 21 routes across the two games due to additional injuries. McConkey is expected to be healthy off the team’s Week 7 bye and finds himself back in the WR3 discussion. He’ll have his hands full this week against a Rams defense that has allowed the fewest catches and fifth-fewest fantasy points to WRs, though the Rams have surrendered eight touchdowns to the position (sixth most).
Over/under: 40.6 (13th highest)
Win probability: Rams 91% (2nd highest)
Projected score: Chiefs 21, Broncos 20
Lineup locks: Kenneth Walker III, Rashee Rice
Fantasy Scoop: Jonah Coleman returned from injury on Sunday and was an immediate contributor in the Denver backfield. The rookie paced Broncos running backs in snaps (28) and carries (nine), while also handling two targets on six routes. RJ Harvey (14 snaps, three carries, eight routes, two targets) scored the team’s only touchdown and remained the top receiving back, whereas J.K. Dobbins (12 snaps, six carries, one route, zero targets) played a reduced role.
Coleman appears to be the Broncos’ lead back — he also had 13 touches for 58 yards and one TD in his lone pre-injury game back in Week 2 — but Dobbins and especially Harvey figure to remain very involved in what is shaping up as a three-headed committee. Coleman is a low-ceiling flex this week against a Kansas City defense that has allowed 3.3 RB yards per carry (second lowest) this season. Granted Coleman didn’t have a touch, but Denver RBs were held to 11.7 fantasy points when these teams met in Week 1.
Over/under: 40.6 (12th highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 54% (Lowest)
Projected score: Patriots 29, Dolphins 20
Lineup locks: Drake Maye, Ollie Gordon II, A.J. Brown
Fantasy Scoop: Caleb Douglas returned from injury on Sunday and proceeded to score the first two touchdowns of his career. That’s the good news. The bad news is that Douglas was limited to a mere three targets, which is the same number he saw in his most recent previous game (Week 2). Douglas totaled 19 yards and didn’t find the end zone in that game. Douglas did post a healthy 5-94-0 receiving line on seven targets in his NFL debut (Week 1) and is no lower than second in line at receiver in Miami, but he’ll of course need to see substantially more than three targets per game in order to find his way to the flex radar.
New England sits midpack in fantasy production allowed to receivers, but it’s possible the Patriots choose to shadow Douglas with standout corner Christian Gonzalez. Douglas aligns on the boundary 80% of the time, so the rookie will be in jeopardy of a major dud if Gonzalez is assigned to him. For the time being, this is a situation to avoid.
Over/under: 48.9 (5th highest)
Win probability: Patriots 78% (6th highest)
Projected score: Commanders 27, Eagles 18
Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, DeVonta Smith, Stefon Diggs
Fantasy Scoop: When we last saw the Commanders (Week 6), Terry McLaurin was lost for the season due to a knee injury. McLaurin’s departure opens the door for the other Washington pass catchers to see more work, and TE Chig Okonkwo is certainly on that list. Okonkwo’s season got off to a slow start due to injury, but he’s now produced double-digit fantasy points in consecutive games. That includes a 4-60-0 receiving line on six targets in Week 5 and a 7-69-0 showing on seven targets in Week 6.
Okonkwo isn’t yet a starting option, and we should temper expectations for a player yet to deliver a top-20 fantasy campaign, but he’s a name to monitor in Washington’s Daniels-led offense — and with only the 32-year-old Diggs clearly ahead of him in target priority. At wide receiver, Treylon Burks and Antonio Williams are worthwhile bench fliers, with the rookie Williams offering the most upside.
Over/under: 45.1 (10th highest)
Win probability: Commanders 79% (5th highest)
Projected score: Seahawks 26, Bears 22
Lineup locks: D’Andre Swift, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland
Fantasy Scoop: Caleb Williams is averaging 20.9 fantasy PPG this season — and that number jumps to 25.3 if we exclude the slightly injured, shortened dud against Minnesota’s elite defense in Week 2. Williams’ season has included a 37.3-point, four-TD effort in Week 1, as well as a pair of games with 300-plus passing yards since his return from injury in Week 6.
Despite Williams’ strong play, though, he’s best left on benches in a brutal Week 8 matchup in Seattle. The Seahawks have allowed the fewest passing yards, a league-low 5.2 YPA and the second-fewest QB fantasy points. Their resume includes holding Drake Maye to 9.8 points, Bo Nix to 4.5 points and, most recently, Patrick Mahomes to 6.0 points.
Over/under: 48.4 (7th highest)
Win probability: Seahawks 65% (8th highest)
