A ‘perfect storm’ has set this sector up to benefit if Trump’s tariffs go ahead, Bank of America says
U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs regime has rocked international markets in recent weeks, sparking massive selloffs and rallies in stocks across the globe. Certain tariff-sensitive stocks, such as those in the autos, mining and pharmaceuticals sectors, have seen particularly volatile trade. In a Wednesday ruling , however, the U.S. Court of International Trade blocked the Trump administration from imposing his so-called reciprocal tariffs . Still, many experts expect that the government will manage to circumvent the ruling – which it has already appealed against – and forge ahead with its trade policies. One European sector could be poised for upside even if the new import duties are enacted, according to Sebastian Raedler, Bank of America’s head of European equity strategy. “The main contrarian trade right now is to be overweight [on] pharma in Europe,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday. “This is a defensive sector that hasn’t participated at all in the defensive outperformance we saw earlier [this year].” While some sectors typically seen as safe investments amid market turbulence – like utilities – have seen huge gains in Europe this year, the regional Stoxx Pharmaceuticals index has shed almost 5%. Raedler told CNBC that European pharmaceuticals had “collapsed on the basis of … a perfect storm” – but he argued investors had significantly overpriced the risk Trump’s tariffs posed to the sector. ” Novo [Nordisk] collapsed . The [U.S.] dollar was weak. You had the fear of sector-specific tariffs . You had the fear of lower drug prices in the U.S.,” he said. “As a consequence, you now have the lowest valuations since 2009.” However, he said that for the region’s pharma sector to outperform, there needed to be “some form of global growth slowdown.” “So we will see whether the tariffs still come through. If there’s any damage from the tariffs, if there’s any slowdown, pharma is miles away from pricing that,” he said. “Investors have really given up on the sector.” Tariffs aside, Raedler argued that investors were underestimating major industry player Novo Nordisk . “You’re effectively pricing for them not even to get the cash flow from the existing product, let alone any upgrade that they can do in terms of oral product,” he said, referring to the company’s blockbuster weight loss drugs like Wegovy. “You’re basically pricing a scenario where [U.S. competitor] Eli Lilly eats the whole market, and Novo doesn’t get anything.” Copenhagen-listed shares of Novo Nordisk have lost almost 30% of their value since the beginning of the year. ‘Rich pickings’ in Switzerland Elsewhere, Swiss stocks could be well-positioned for upside, Raedler said, noting that the country’s equities were “close to a record low relative to the European market.” This was, in part, because of the country’s large pharmaceuticals industry, he added. “Over the past month, cyclical as well as defensives in Europe are at a 30-year high, that means it’s not just pharma that weighs on the Swiss market. It’s also food and beverages,” he said. “Risk premia are back to the lows, plus you’ve got the idiosyncratic pharma story. So the key question is, [we’ve] had for three years a global cycle that hasn’t slowed. Will you finally get the slowdown? If so, there are very rich pickings in the Swiss market, in pharma and in food and beverage.”
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