Caitlin Clark’s status, 3-pointers and fast-break points: Keys to Tuesday’s Commissioner’s Cup final

The Commissioner’s Cup final on Tuesday night offers a contrast: The Minnesota Lynx, representing the Western Conference, have been the WNBA’s most consistent team this season. The Indiana Fever, representing the East, have had a roller-coaster campaign, similar to what many teams around the league have experienced.

“Nobody said this season was going to be perfect for us,” Indiana guard Caitlin Clark said Sunday. “There’s always going to be ups and downs. These are the moments we’re going to look back on. Everybody’s been through a little bit of adversity here. [I’m] giving our group credit for being able to stick together and know that whatever’s in our locker room is all we need to win. Really proud of our group every single day.”

However, Clark’s availability Tuesday night (8 ET, Prime) is uncertain. She has missed seven games this season, first with a quad injury and more recently a groin injury.

Clark and Minnesota forward Napheesa Collier were announced Sunday as the top two vote-getters in fan balloting for the July 19 All-Star Game. While the first-place Lynx (14-2) are the defending Commissioner’s Cup champions, the Fever (8-8) are appearing in the Cup final for the first time since the WNBA’s in-season competition debuted in 2021.

Here’s a look at some of the biggest factors that could determine the Cup winner.

Will both teams be at full strength?

If Clark and Collier are both playing Tuesday, it will be a boost to this matchup.

Clark worked on some offensive skills with no contact at the Fever’s practice Sunday, coach Stephanie White said.

“I’m going to be day-to-day,” Clark said. “Doing everything I can to put myself in position to play the next game. That’s always my goal.”

Collier has played well the past two games after missing the previous two with a back injury. She leads the WNBA in scoring (24.5 PPG) and was MVP of last year’s Commissioner’s Cup final, which the Lynx won over the New York Liberty 94-89.

However, Lynx reserve guard Karlie Samuelson left Sunday’s 102-63 win over Connecticut with a foot injury, so her status for Tuesday is uncertain. And Indiana reserve forward Damiris Dantas is not with the team as she is playing for Brazil in the AmeriCup tournament in Chile.

Which team has the experience and home-court edge?

Last season, the Lynx and Liberty played the Cup final before a big crowd at UBS Arena in Elmont, New York. (Barclays Center in Brooklyn, the Liberty’s usual home court, was hosting the NBA draft.) Tuesday’s game will be at Minnesota’s Target Center, which has been home to the All-Star Game plus many WNBA Finals games over the years.

“I think it’s going to feel like a playoff game,” Collier said. “It’s going to be really fun. Our fans show up for us every game, but especially in that environment … it’s going to be electrifying.”

Clark called the matchup “a huge opportunity.”

“They have a great crowd, great environment. A team that’s very experienced with one another. They’ve been in the Finals, been in big situations, won the Commissioner’s Cup last year,” Clark said. “Personnel will be really important, but we’re excited to get out there and try to get the win.”

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Napheesa Collier drops 26 in Lynx’s OT win over the Dream

Napheesa Collier shines with 26 points as the Lynx improve to 13-2 after a road win over the Dream.

Who wins the battle of the arc?

Minnesota is the top 3-point-shooting team in the WNBA by percentage (36.3); Indiana ranks sixth (34.2). Both teams are at the top of the league in 3-point field goal defense: The Fever are first, holding opponents to 27.5%, and the Lynx second at 29.1%.

Despite Clark’s recent 3-point shooting slump in the three games before she went out with her groin injury (1-of-23), the threat of Clark shooting from long range stretches out defenses.

If she is not playing, the Fever still have 3-point threats in Kelsey Mitchell, Lexie Hull, Sophie Cunningham, Sydney Colson and Aari McDonald. Mitchell, who leads the Fever with 35 3-pointers, is coming off a season-high 32 points in a victory at Dallas. Hull leads Indiana in 3-point percentage (22-of-44).

Kayla McBride, who recently crossed the 5,000-point mark for her career, is Minnesota’s top 3-point shooter: She has made 34 on 41% shooting. The other four starters for the Lynx — Collier, Courtney Williams, Bridget Carleton and Alanna Smith — all have at least 19 3-pointers this season.

The teams could cancel each other out behind the arc, but if one gets a clear advantage, it could make a big difference in this game.

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Kelsey Mitchell drops 32 in a nail-biting win over Wings

Kelsey Mitchell cooks the Wings for 32 points in a hard-fought victory for the Fever.

Who sets the pace?

The Fever with Clark, a fast-break wizard, will go at as fast a pace as possible. However, Indiana has not gotten as much from its transition game as it would like to. The Fever are 11th in the league in fast-break points per game (10.1). Clark being out seven games obviously affects that, but McDonald — recently signed for the rest of the season after previously playing three games on an injury hardship contract — should help the Fever with her quickness and willingness to push the ball.

The Lynx, who share the ball well, have been one of the best teams on the fast break, averaging 12.6 points (third in the WNBA).

The Fever, who averaged 14.8 turnovers, must be especially careful about taking care of the ball against the Lynx. Minnesota leads the league in points off turnovers (18.3). Indiana is sixth in that category (16.2).

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Natasha Howard’s impressive and-1 pads Fever lead late in the 4th quarter

Natasha Howard’s impressive and-1 pads Fever lead late in the 4th quarter.

Which Fever defense shows up?

Minnesota’s consistency is partially the product of its elite, reliable defense. The Lynx lead the WNBA in points allowed (74.1) and defensive rating (93.9) and are second in opponent field goal percentage (40.1).

The Fever are well behind defensively: They allow foes 80.1 points and 42.9% shooting and have a 100.2 defensive rating. However, if Indiana has at least a credible defensive effort and is clicking offensively, that’s the formula for an upset.

Forward Aliyah Boston is the defensive anchor for the Fever, and Hull is the nonstop energy force. Hull, McDonald, Mitchell and Colson all can be effective on-ball defenders.

Boston has had a big load all season. She and Natasha Howard will try to slow down Collier inside. Boston has been very good offensively of late, too: She is averaging 21.4 points in the Fever’s past five games.