With Zelenskyy sidelined from Ukraine war talks, Trump appears to hand Putin a diplomatic win

Just when Ukraine and its European allies thought President Donald Trump was coming round to their view of the war, he appeared to give a huge win to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.

For Kyiv, this was Trump’s deadline to Putin: stop the fighting by Friday or face tough new economic sanctions. Instead, Trump has handed Moscow a diplomatic coup by agreeing to meet Putin face-to-face in a matter of days, their first encounter since the invasion of Ukraine.

Trump had initially suggested that such a summit would only go ahead if Putin agreed to meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, something the Ukrainian president’s administration has long called for but has been resisted by Russia. On Thursday, Trump dispelled the idea that they would have to get together — raising the specter of a bilateral negotiation that freezes out Kyiv.

“The danger for Ukraine is actually quite grave,” said Jonathan Eyal, international director at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank. “There will be a sense of alarm in European capitals.”

For Eyal and others, Ukraine’s nightmare is now one step closer to reality: “Trump will be so pleased by what he perceives as the great achievement of getting Putin to the negotiating table, that he grabs any kind of offer that is made,”, Eyal said. “The danger of half-baked compromise, which Trump can claim as his main achievement, is very high.”

That compromise could be a temporary ceasefire that would allow Russia to restock its army and give its economy a break from international sanctions, according to Hope for Ukraine, a nonprofit organization based in Roseland, New Jersey.

Even if there is no truce agreement, “a meeting with Trump — no matter the outcome — would be a big diplomatic victory for Putin,” Gabriella Ramirez, Hope for Ukraine’s executive assistant, said in an email. “Putin wants to break his diplomatic isolation” and such a meeting “will stroke his ego.”

The “meeting with Putin is a trap; President Trump must not fall for it,” Ramirez added.

Ukraine now finds itself in a bind.

“Zelenskyy cannot appear to be torpedoing what is a Trump initiative,” Eyal said. After his catastrophic fallout with Trump in the White House in February, Zelenskyy has “just managed to repair his relationship with Trump over the last two months in a very gingerly fashion, and it would be the worst possible thing for him to appear now to be pooh-poohing this summit.”

Many Ukrainians were already skeptical. Before the summit was even announced, Artem Bidenko, a political scientist and former deputy minister in Ukraine’s government, predicted that Putin “will most likely offer some kind of bone” to Trump, who “will say that ‘you see, I’m doing well, I’m already achieving peace, and people will stop dying,’” Bidenko said.

The White House did not immediately respond to NBC News’ request for comment on these criticisms.

Others in Kyiv have more faith in the American leader.

“Trump seems to be irritated enough by the Russians’ actions to dare to strike really strong blows at Russia,” said Danylo Vereitin, 31, a sports journalist based in Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. “People with this type of mentality really don’t like to look weak or vulnerable.”

During the presidential campaign last year, Trump said it would take him just 24 hours to solve the conflict, later updated that to six months and then seemingly forgot about it. Previous warm words about Putin have recently turned stern, and Trump appeared to be losing patience with Russia’s “disgusting” and “disgraceful” nightly missile attacks on Ukrainian civilians while the White House was attempting to broker peace talks.

This culminated in Trump’s deadline, first set at 50 days on July 14, then shortened to 10 days on July 29, for Putin to agree a ceasefire or face tariffs against importers of Russian oil and gas products like China, India, Brazil and Turkey.

Asked whether this deadline was still active, Trump told reporters Thursday, “It’s going to be up to him” — meaning Putin — “and we’re going to see what he has to say,” adding that he was “very disappointed” at the situation.

A senior White House official told NBC News Friday that the Russians have provided a list of demands for a potential ceasefire, and the U.S. is now trying to get buy-in from the Ukrainians and European allies.

But Trump’s ultimatums have not prompted the Kremlin to move one inch on its war in Ukraine so far, other than to give Trump a meeting.

“Nothing has changed since, frankly, December 2021, when Putin offered his ultimatum and said, ‘Give me what I want or else Ukraine gets it,” said James Nixey, a U.K.-based consultant specializing on Russia.

“Trump has done everything to pressure Russia, short of actually doing anything to pressure Russia,” he added. “He’s made all sorts of pronouncements, threats and Truth Social posts, but not actually undertaken any specific act which harms Russia.”

In 2021, Russia’s eight-point draft treaty looks much the same as today : a ban on Ukraine ever joining NATO and a withdrawal of NATO forces on Russia’s eastern flank. Today, Russia has merely added the additional demand of even more Ukrainian territory.

Ukraine has rejected the idea of a ceasefire that would have Russia maintain control over Ukrainian territory in its control, and insisted that any agreement must include “security guarantees” from its allies so that Moscow is not able to launch future aggression.

“Putin wants Ukraine, Ukraine wants to exist, Trump wants an end to the war and to be able to deal with Russia,” Nixey said. “All of the major players have different agendas and none of them are aligned on anything.”