Last Updated:
There is a decline of 27 basis points in headline inflation of March 2025 in comparison to February 2025, says the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation.
India’s official CPI inflation data for March 2025 has been released.
India’s retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), in March 2025 fell to 3.34 per cent, which is the lowest since August 2019, according to the latest official data released on Tuesday. The fall in March 2025 inflation comes amid a sharp decline in food inflation during the month.
The CPI inflation had stood at 3.61 per cent in February 2025 and 4.38 per cent in March 2024. The inflation rate in March 2025 is the lowest since August 2019, when it was 3.28 per cent.
“Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of March, 2025 over March, 2024 is 3.34% (Provisional). There is a decline of 27 basis points in headline inflation of March, 2025 in comparison to February, 2025. It is the lowest year-on-year inflation after August 2019,” the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation said in a statement.
Food inflation sharply declined to 2.69 per cent, compared with 3.75 per cent in February 2025 and 8.52 per cent in March 2024.
Aditi Nayar, chief economist and head (research & outreach) of ICRA Ltd, said, “The unexpectedly sharp sequential fall in the headline CPI inflation in March 2025 was predominantly led by food items, such as meat, eggs and vegetables, whereas a number of other groups reported a modest rise in inflation. A rise in temperatures going ahead could raise prices of perishables in the coming weeks. While the initial forecast of an above normal monsoon is encouraging, the timing and distribution will be key for the implications for agri output and food inflation going ahead.”
Further monetary easing is clearly on the table, to the tune of 50 bps over the next three policies. With the next inflation print also expected to be sub-4%, a June 2025 rate cut seems highly likely, unless Q4 FY2025 GDP growth surprises sharply to the upside, she added.
Meanwhile, wholesale price inflation declined to a six-month low of 2.05 per cent in March as prices of vegetables, potato and other food items eased, government data showed on Tuesday. Wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation was 2.38 per cent in February. It was 0.26 per cent in March last year.
Last week, the Reserve Bank reduced the key short-term lending rate (repo) by 25 bps in the wake of easing inflation. The Reserve Bank has projected CPI inflation for the current fiscal 2025-26 at 4 per cent, with Q1 at 3.6 per cent, Q2 at 3.9 per cent, Q3 at 3.8 per cent, and Q4 at 4.4 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced.
#Indias #CPI #Inflation #March #Falls #Lowest #August
