The Houston Cougars may have experienced the letdown of a lifetime when they blew a 12-point lead in the second half of the men’s college basketball finale Monday night, but bookmakers believe they’ll be in contention to win it next season, competing with the team they upset in the Final Four.
Duke is the early favorite to win the 2026 NCAA men’s national championship, showing +1000 odds on ESPN BET. Houston is second on the odds board at +1200, followed by UConn, which made a big move in recent days from +2000 to +1400.
Meanwhile, the reigning national champion Florida Gators, whose last national championship was the second part of a back-to-back in 2007, are +2500 to win again next season, tied for 12th on ESPN BET’s odds board. With Florida covering -1.5 on Monday night, favorites have now covered in three straight national championship games and six of the past eight, per ESPN Research.
Overall, NCAA tournament favorites had a historic run in 2025, winning 53 games outright to break the record of 51 set in 2007. Some bookmakers see that as an aberration due for correction.
“I’ve been through times like this before,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. “It’s been one of those seasons. It’s been favorite season and it’s happened before. Now, does the NIL money have something to do with it? Yeah, I guess somewhat, but I don’t think this is going to be a pattern that’s going to continue.”
ESPN BET director of North American sports trading Adrian Horton tentatively said, “It’s been a big year for favorites, but it’s not the first time we’ve had a very chalky tournament.”
Other bookmakers are less sure. Caesars Sportsbook college basketball trader Patrick Berbert believes the 2022 tournament, which saw the likes of FAU and San Diego State make runs to the Final Four, could be the last of its kind for some time, with conference expansion and realignment, the transfer portal and NIL dictating that teams in the power conferences will only continue to get more powerful.
To that point, San Diego State is listed at 250-1 to win the 2026 national championship, while FAU is not even on the board. Gonzaga (+3000) is the only mid-major in the top 20. The next such team is Memphis at 200-1, tied for 51st on the odds board.
“Honestly, I do think it’s going to be very chalky going forward,” he said. “You might start to see these favorites on the moneyline, they’re going to start to be a little heavier favorite, especially in the earlier rounds compared to your traditional price that you normally get on a certain number just because it’s going to be easier competition for them per se. The players on the court are going to be so much more dominant than the other team.”
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