Let the Madness begin! The NCAA Tournament is one of the most bet sporting events on the calendar, with more than $3.1 billion expected to be waged. If you’re looking to start strong (and add money to your pocket), here are the five first-round bets I feel most confident about this week.
As a reminder: Betting games against the spread (ATS) means if the team is a +5.5 underdog we need it to come within five points of winning in order to cash our bet. If the team is a -5.5 favorite we need to win the game outright by at least six points to cash our bet.
Please always bet within your means. All lines courtesy of BetMGM as of Tuesday.
Oklahoma Sooners vs. UConn Huskies
Team to Bet: Oklahoma +4.5 (-110)
In one of the most interesting draws of the opening round, two-time defending national champion UConn faces Oklahoma in a No. 8 vs. No. 9 draw. The Huskies have struggled against dominant guards this seasons and the Sooners have just that in freshman star Jeremiah Fears (17.0 points, 4.1 assists and 4.1 rebounds per game).
Oklahoma went 5-9 over the last 14 games, but eight of those losses came against NCAA Tournament teams. In fact, 12 of Oklahoma’s 13 losses on the season have come against teams in the field of 68 and SEC opponents (Oklahoma went 13-0 in nonconference play). UConn has struggled to defend the 3-pointer (ranking 257th in the country at just 35.1%) and doesn’t force turnovers (15.5% ranks 291st). It’s also a known fact that the Big East is down this year, ranking fourth per Kenpom of all the major conferences after finishing second last year and third in 2023.
The Sooners played the best competition night in and night out within the SEC, and I think that pays dividends against UConn. The Huskies looked emotionally vulnerable and frustrated against Creighton, and Oklahoma won’t be any easier. I took the Sooners at +4.5.
Utah State Aggies vs. UCLA Bruins
Team to Bet: Utah State +4.5 (-110)
Utah State runs an odd 1-3-1 defense that tries to take away 3-pointers and force turnovers. The Aggies do a pretty good job of both, ranking 38th in the nation and third in the MWC for defensive turnover percentage and allowing teams to shoot just 33.8% from 3-point range (178th). UCLA hasn’t played a defense like Utah State’s, and the Bruins rank outside the top 150 in offensive and defensive effective field goal percentage over the past 10 games.
Mick Cronin is 9-3 as UCLA head coach in the NCAA Tournament (No. 2, No. 4 and No. 11 seeds) but missed the big dance last year. With both defenses playing at slow tempos (311th and 362nd), I like this to be a grind and a low-scoring game. Utah State is a good bet to upset UCLA, so I grabbed the +4.5 and +5.5 points.
UC San Diego Tritons vs. Michigan Wolverines
Team to Bet: UC San Diego +2.5 (-110)
Dusty May and Michigan could be the most popular pick of all the No. 5 seeds to be upset despite winning the Big Ten Tournament by beating Purdue, Maryland and Wisconsin. The Wolverines’ run was impressive after they finished the regular season on a three-game losing streak to Illinois, Maryland and Michigan State.
However, Michigan ranks 328th in the country with a 19.8% offensive turnover percentage. In Big Ten play, Michigan ranks bottom two in the conference for offensive and defensive turnover percentage, which is a recipe for disaster.
UC San Diego ranked seventh in the country for offensive turnover percentage (13.4%) and second defensively (23.2%) with the 340th-ranked defensive tempo. In other words, the Tritons turn you over and play slowly and don’t turn the ball over themselves. UC San Diego can win this game, so take the points with the Tritons.
Robert Morris Colonials vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Team to Bet: Alabama -22.5 (-110)
Robert Morris played one top-100 opponent this season, and that was in the season-opener at West Virginia back in early November. The Colonials lost 87-59 and gave up 46 first-half points. Alabama plays at the quickest tempo in the country and fourth-fastest offensively, while Robert Morris has the 39th-quickest average possession length on defense and the second fastest in the Horizon League.
This is a terrible matchup for Robert Morris, and I don’t see any reason Alabama doesn’t score as much as it wants, especially after it played the toughest schedule in the country. I like Alabama to cover the opening line of -20.5 out to -23.5 against Robert Morris.
Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks vs. St. John’s Red Storm
Team to Bet: St. John’s -17.5
Nebraska-Omaha made the NCAA Tournament for the first time in its 14-year program history. The Mavericks celebrated hearing their name called on Selection Sunday, but that’s about the only thing they will be celebrating. A date with Rick Pitino and St. John’s on Thursday is a one-way ticket to vacation starting Friday.
The Red Storm have one of the best draws of the tournament and have improved their 3-point shooting drastically, which was an Achilles’ heel early on. Over the past 10 games, St. John’s knocked down 33.3% of its 3-pointers compared with 29.1% prior to that (341st).
The Mavericks like to play fast, but if the Red Storm are forcing turnovers (13th) and making their triples, then Nebraska-Omaha should lose by 20-plus points, as it did against Iowa State (83-51) in December.
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