Al Qaeda after Osama
It should be remembered that an organization like ISIS was born from the womb of Al Qaeda. If it finds favorable conditions in any part of the world, it can rise again.
It’s been 10 years since al-Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden was killed. On this occasion, the debate is once again hot on how safe the world was from terrorism with his departure?
It is strange to mention the terror and barbarism caused by human destruction in the deadly era of the coronavirus, but the fear of the way terrorism has changed the map of the world is not over yet.
With the exception of Afghanistan, the incidence of terrorism has decreased worldwide, but the threats posed by terrorism have not diminished. The scenario, especially after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, is becoming more worrying.
What will be the nature of the Taliban’s relationship with Al Qaeda? Will the Taliban be able to fulfill their promise to the United States that they will not allow other terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda, to use Afghan territory? If they fail to deliver on their promises, will organizations like Al Qaeda and ISIS gain momentum?
Afghanistan’s own security is important, but the question is also linked to Pakistan’s internal security. The concerns of China, Russia, and Central Asian countries are in addition.
Al-Qaeda has weakened over the past decade, but the possibility of its re-emergence is not being ruled out. It should be remembered that an organization like ISIS was born from the womb of Al Qaeda. If it finds favorable conditions in any part of the world, it can rise again.
It is playing a leading role in other extremist movements around the world. Interestingly, its allies in the fight against terrorism, including the United States and Pakistan, claim to have defeated al-Qaeda, but al-Qaeda, religious extremist circles are also debating whether to replace Osama bin Laden with Ayman al-Zawahiri. Would al-Qaeda have been so weak?
On the other hand, supporters of Ayman al-Zawahiri say that despite the opposition of Dina and a big challenge like ISIS, the credit for the existence of Al-Qaeda goes to him.
These rumors have not yet been confirmed whether Ayman al-Zawahiri is alive or not. Contradictory reports of his death from a heart attack have been circulating for the past few months. His latest video, in which he made statements about Rohingya Muslims, has added to the confusion over the news of his death.
However, the important question is whether Ayman al-Zawahiri is known in this organization or not. If his compatriot Saif al-Adil becomes chief after his death, will al-Qaeda’s operational capabilities make a difference? He has a reputation as al Qaeda’s chief operational commander.
Ayman al-Zawahiri’s strategy for al-Qaeda’s survival has been to rethink its relationship with affiliated organizations and its various regional chapters, making them more independent, and strengthening its ties with the Afghan Taliban.
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi damaged al-Qaeda’s ideological, intellectual, and organizational capabilities by declaring a caliphate. To mitigate this loss, al-Zawahiri adhered to Osama bin Laden’s policy and pledged allegiance to Mullah Mansour Akhtar and now Mullah Hebatullah.
The policy allowed al-Qaeda to stay in the region, and there have been reports that the Taliban’s talks with the United States included al-Qaeda’s consultation and that al-Qaeda chose a less active role.
With this strategy, Central Al Qaeda remained in touch with its circles in Yemen, the West, Iraq, and Syria, and maintained its role and role in the future of Afghanistan.
A major challenge for al Qaeda is the new leadership, which has not emerged in the last 20 years and is the reason for the United States’ confidence that the threat of al Qaeda will gradually diminish in the future.
As for al-Qaeda’s presence in the region, it has expanded its advisory and leadership role. Al-Qaeda’s role in the TTP’s involvement in various factions and small groups is also mentioned. It has a separate chapter for South Asia called Al Qaeda in the Subcontinent.
Its founding leader was Asim Omar, a native of Hyderabad, India, who was killed in Afghanistan in 2020. This chapter was created in 2014 with the aim of countering the growing influence of ISIS and uniting pro-al-Qaeda groups.
The group has been attacking secular and independent bloggers in Bangladesh, but its biggest operation was in Pakistan when its former Navy officers tried to hijack a frigate F-22P from the Naval Dockyard. Was
Al Qaeda in the subcontinent last attacked Pakistan in 2017 and it was on the police in Karachi. Since then, it has not claimed responsibility for any of the attacks, but Sindh and Punjab counter-terrorism departments have claimed to have arrested several terrorists linked to it and killed some in encounters.
Among those arrested was Omar Jalal Chandio, who is said to be one of Ayman al-Zawahiri’s closest associates. Last year, an anti-terrorism court in Gujranwala convicted six suspects linked to the group in a terror-financing case.
Al Qaeda’s future in the coming years depends on the performance of its various factions, which have become independent, but with their survival, the future of the central organization is in its hands
