Citi is the latest Wall Street firm to cuts its S & P 500 year-end target, as the specter of tariffs clouds the global equity and macroeconomic outlook for investors. Strategist Scott Chronert lowered his year-end target for the broad market index to 5,800 from his original forecast of 6,500 , on a weaker earnings growth forecast. Citi now anticipates S & P 500 earnings of $255, down from $270. The new target for the index is about 8% above where it ended Friday. “Both tariff assumptions and recent signs of macro slowing trigger the downward revision from a previous $270 projection. Some valuation compression is also warranted as a function of policy uncertainty” he wrote. Stocks have struggled since April 2, when President Donald Trump unveiled a slew of levies on imported goods to the U.S. The S & P 500 is down 5.4% in that time. Stocks also experienced one of the most volatile weeks last week. The benchmark on Wednesday rallied more than 9% but dropped more than 3% in the following session. Still, the strategist — who offered a wide range between his bull and bear cases — expects the risk is potentially to the upside for the duration of the year. His bull case of 6,400 implies roughly 19% upside from Friday’s close of 5,363.36. His bear case of 4,700 suggests stocks could fall another 12%. “This leaves us constructive on the risk-reward for the balance of the year, and particularly on further pullbacks,” he wrote. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 Chronert is not the only strategist to cut his S & P 500 target for 2025. Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin lowered his S & P 500 target to 5,700 , having cut it twice over the past month on downward revisions to both earnings and valuation, as well as higher recession risk. RBC Capital Markets’ Lori Calvasina slashed her year-end outlook this month to 5,550 . Traders got some reprieve on the trade front after Trump said over the weekend that smartphones, computers and other devices will be exempt from tariffs. However, Trump on Sunday suggested the exemptions aren’t permanent, saying the products are still “subject to the existing 20% Fentanyl Tariffs,” and are “just moving to a different Tariff ‘bucket.'” “We have argued that both magnitude and duration of tariffs will impact fundamental modeling and ultimate stock/sector/index response,” Chronert wrote. “The depth and breadth of enduring economic impacts remains a wildcard which may, atypically, follow fundamental pressures.” Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange!| Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
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